Plane Politics
By Dr Shireen M Mazari
The initial euphoria
in some circles over the possibility of acquiring
F-16s from the US should now be tempered by the
reality on the ground. This includes the fact that
Pakistan will have to pass through many hurdles
before the sale itself is actually realized -- if
it ever is, given the power of the Indian lobby
in Washington. Despite the ongoing supposed détente
between Pakistan and India, the Indian lobbies have
already begun their work on Capitol Hill with a
proposed Pakistan Accountability Act 2005 in the
US House of Representatives.
This bill, introduced by Gary Ackerman, has been
referred to the House Committee on International
Relations. Amongst other things, the law, if passed,
will demand unrestricted access to Dr A.Q. Khan
as a precondition for the sale of any military equipment
or technology to Pakistan. As the bill states:
“No United States military assistance may
be provided to Pakistan and no military equipment
or technology may be sold, transferred, or licensed
for sale to Pakistan … unless the president
first certifies to the appropriate congressional
committees that the government of Pakistan has provided
the Untied States with unrestricted opportunities
to interview the Pakistani nuclear scientist, Dr
Abdul Qadeer Khan …; the government of Pakistan
has complied with requests for assistance from the
international Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) …”
and so on. Even before Pakistan has negotiated the
terms of the sale, given that the April visit to
Islamabad of the US Defense Security Cooperation
Agency did not have the mandate to actually discuss
the terms of the deal, moves are afoot in the US
to block it.
So much for being a frontline ally of the US in
the war against terrorism! It seems Pakistan-specific
laws are once again going to do the rounds in the
US Congress - especially as the war in Afghanistan
wanes. Clearly, the more Pakistan chooses to cooperate
on the proliferation issue, the more heavy-handed
and intense the demands become from allies like
the US.
This is similar to the increasingly intrusive manner
in which the US military is issuing statements about
the Pakistan military’s actions along the
Pakistan-Afghanistan international border and in
the adjacent tribal areas of Pakistan. The most
recent declaration by General Barno is typical of
the US approach. In the case of Pakistan, the US
seems to take our cooperative behavior as a sign
of weakness on which to be ever more aggressive
in their pronouncements and demands. So the proposed
Ackerman sponsored law is only one caution Pakistan
should take heed of. The politics of the sale of
the F-16s has many dimensions and the question that
really needs to be debated is whether this is the
best plane for Pakistan from a number of perspectives.
The F-16 is a third generation plane which will
cause problems for us in the long term, since the
present manufacturers, Lockheed Martin, may not
survive for very long. As it is, the sale of F-16s
to Pakistan and India may prolong Lockheed’s
life a little which is why it suits Bush to offer
this sale to South Asia, but one can visualize,
only too familiarly, the problems of spares and
upgradations after some years.
Equally important, one is not sure whether we will
get the “fully loaded” model or a stripped
down one. What avionics would we get on the planes
and what sort of weapon systems would we be able
to use? All we know is that the F-16s we are seeking
are the upgraded C/D models. At the end of the day,
these issues, added to the issue of costs, make
one wonder whether it would be better to acquire
only about a dozen new F-16s, if we must, to sustain
our present fleet while we develop other options.
A far better option would be to get the US to allow
the Swedes to sell us the JAS 39 Gripen, one of
the best lightweight multi-role combat aircraft
in the world. It is a state of the art fourth generation
combat plane that will be viable even 25-30 years
on. The Swedes need US approval for the sale since
the Gripen uses US-manufactured engines and missile
systems.
Given the problems of getting Congressional approval
for the sale of F-16s to Pakistan, if the US really
was supportive of Pakistan updating its air force,
it would give Sweden the go-ahead to sell to Pakistan.
There could be other problems such as whether the
Swedes themselves, or the EU, would have political
reservations but these hurdles would be far less
onerous than a US Congressional approval.
Overall, given the politics of planes, Pakistan’s
best possible option would be to buy some new combat
aircraft while continuing to develop the Pakistan-China
co-produced JF Thunder, with an avionics package
from the European states, as we have had a good
relationship with some of them. Of course, the EU
collectivity is beginning to get more intrusive
vis-a-vis Pakistan in terms of our domestic laws
and politics, but their sense of business normally
remains strong -- especially since their arms and
avionics industries have tough and often unfair
competition from the US. In this connection, it
is too bad that the French Mirage has priced itself
out of the market as far as Pakistan is concerned
because it is a remarkable fighting machine.
All in all, buying American comes with a heavy price,
both political and economic. We are already experiencing
this with the purchase of the Boeing 777s for the
national airline. Some important questions are now
being raised about this particular deal which is
all set to pull the national carrier down with the
loan repayments and interest charges. At a time
when the national carrier was all set on a healthy
road to profits, this one deal is threatening its
very existence. There is a growing view that the
manner in which the planes were purchased was highly
questionable.
Apart from the financial costs, there is a debate
amongst pilots over whether the 777 purchase was
the most viable. In fact, for the price of one 777
we could have purchased three good second-hand 747s
-- which provide a greater sense of security with
their four engines as opposed to the two of the
777. There are those who argue that the 777 offers
prestige to an airline unlike second-hand aircraft
-- but at what cost?
Another viewpoint is it would have been more rational
to go for the airbus, since its maintenance structures
would not have had to be created anew. Many pilots
flying for the national carrier that I spoke to
seem to have grave reservations over this 777s purchase,
and so far we seem to be having a number of problems
with these new planes -- which incidentally are
not particularly comfortable either. This is where
decision-making without proper scrutiny and no accountability
makes the nation pay the price for generations.
(The writer is Director General of the Institute
of Strategic Studies in Islamabad. Courtesy The
News)
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