The Deja Vu
of History
By A.H. Cemendtaur
CA
How soon will the US start
pulling out of Iraq? This is a question everyone
is asking these days. Teaching democracy to the
Middle East has proven to be a costly enterprise
for the world's sole superpower.
Not too long ago, after the Iraq elections, the
lull in the Iraqi violence suggested the ebb of
insurgency. The road was going to be smoother,
it was thought. But now, just a few months later,
things don't look that good. And with the increase
in the number of homebound body bags, the public
patience in the US is running out. Rethinking
the war-on-terror strategy is likely.
For the US, the option of fortifying and keeping
a strong watch on people being let in the country
seems more viable. But while withdrawing from
Iraq might only be a humiliation for the US, this
retreat may have grave consequences for countries
far and wide in that region. These are not the
warlords of Somalia the US will be pulling out
from - people who will beat their chests in victory
celebrations and will go back to being pests for
their own people. This will be a defeat from elements
that have successfully created an international
network; people who are capable of recruiting
wannabe martyrs from virtually anywhere in the
world, using the Internet.
The last time non-state elements pulled off a
similar victory was in Afghanistan, but that war
against one superpower was won with the help and
guidance of another superpower. This time the
non-state elements would have done it themselves
without the backing of any state. Why should anyone
doubt that as soon as the US starts pulling out
of Iraq, the emboldened Jihadi network would focus
its attention on Afghanistan? And owing to Afghanistan's
geography, Pakistan might again find itself the
halfway house on the Jihad-Trail. For Pakistan
it could be the 1980s all over again.
The US withdrawal from Iraq may see an upsurge
in Islamic insurgency from Chechnya to Kashmir.
States will try to stop the itinerant Jihadis
from entering their borders, but as always, a
small sympathetic population in the native country
is all that would be needed to make sure the soldiers
of faith get through.
And if the Jihadi network decides to get itself
a state-face what better option would it have
than to take control of the Muslim World's only
known nuclear power? Controlling Pakistan they
would have the opportunity of playing with the
big boys almost on par.
The Americans' pullout from Vietnam three decades
ago emboldened communists the world over, but
the communist victory in South East Asia didn't
lead to world chaos. Along the same lines, one
may argue that an American exit from Iraq will
only make that region acquire a new religio-political
balance. But no one can be sure of that. The fight
between capitalism and communism was a war between
two sets of logic. This time there is blind faith
on one side.
After retreating from Vietnam the US fought proxy
wars all over the world, sometimes supporting
the government of a country and at other times
supporting the rebel group trying to usurp it.
Will the US pullout from Iraq lead to another
set of proxy wars raging all over the Islamic
world? Let's hope that the question 'How soon
will the US pull out from Iraq?' is not invariably
connected to a host of other questions: How long
will Karzai last after that? And how long will
the army chief in Pakistan be able to hold back
the tide?
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