The War that
Demolished the Invincibility Myth
By Syed Muazzem Ali
Former Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh
A ceasefire has finally taken effect in Lebanon
between Israeli and Hezbollah forces, in pursuance
of UN Security Council Resolution No 1701. Thousands
of displaced Lebanese people are returning to
their homes in the South. After 34-days of massive
Israeli aerial bombings and ground attacks on
Lebanon, the trillion dollar question is: who
won the war? The Hezbollah, it seems, have scored
both political and military victory over their
opponent.
Historically, Israel has been accustomed to defeating
Arab opponents convincingly in every war from
1948 through the Six –Day War of 1967 and
Yom Kippur War of 1973. Results in all these wars
were decisive and quick. Israel literally thrashed
them in a matter of days and agreed to ceasefires
only when they thought they had achieved their
targeted objectives.
This time, though, the table seems to have turned
against them as the motivated and determined Hezbollah
forces made them face a different war and a different
strategy. The all powerful Israeli forces, for
the first time, failed to achieve any of the stated
military objectives. The two Israeli troops who
were abducted by Hezbollah forces, for which the
attack was launched in the first place, still
remain in the captors’ custody. More importantly,
Israel has neither been able to dislodge Hezbollah
forces from their stronghold nor destroy their
fearsome array of rockets.
Of course, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
has claimed that the war has eliminated Hezbollah’s
“state within a state” status in Lebanon
and that they expect that as per the Council resolution,
there would be added international pressure on
Lebanon to deploy its troops in the South with
a view to “isolating” and “disarming”
the Hezbollah forces. The Israelis also hope that
Hezbollah’s mentors Tehran and Damascus
would be pressured by the international community
to curb their support for the militants. However,
Tel Aviv surely has not forgotten that after their
18-year occupation of Southern Lebanon and the
last six years of persistent efforts, the Lebanese
army has not been able to take charge of the Southern
region.
The war has definitely severely bruised the Israeli
military machinery and boosted Hezbollah’s
standing in the Arab and Muslim world. The Hezbollah
leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has now emerged
as an icon in the entire region and beyond and
some are even calling him the “new”
Gamal Abdel Nasser. The question arises: how could
a militant group, which had come into existence
after Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, turn
into a formidable force in the region within such
a short time? The answer can be found in its leadership,
the motivation of its cadre, and generous financial
and material assistance that it received from
wealthy Lebanese Shiites and Iran.
Israel has devastated Lebanon, killing 790 Lebanese
people and leaving the entire country in shambles;
but more importantly, Hezbollah has demolished
the Israeli invincibility myth. They not only
withstood Israeli military onslaught but also
launched over 4000 rocket attacks, some even deep
inside Israel, killing 155 and making hundreds
of thousands flee their homes and take shelter
in refugee camps.
In the process, Israel’s security, based
on its firm deterrence, has suffered a life-threatening
blow. The Hezbollah has exposed Israeli forces’
vulnerabilities. Critics of the war are openly
asking that if couple of thousands of Shiite irregulars,
supported by Iranians, could keep Israel’s
large and sophisticated conventional army at bay
for over a month, what would happen when Tehran
supplies more deadly weapons and sends thousands
of “volunteers” to Lebanon. The Hezbollah
rockets barrage threatened the entire northern
region of Israel, and many Israelis, for the first
time, are worried about the survival of their
state.
The Israeli debacle could be attributed to several
factors. First, when Prime Minister Olmert waged
the war, some of his political opponents who viewed
this attack as an attempt to increase his flagging
popularity, held back their political support
to him. Secondly, the Israeli intelligence seriously
miscalculated Hezbollah’s military strength.
Thirdly, Israel, in the past, has always relied
on tanks and heavy armored vehicles to quickly
knock off any Arab resistance, but this time,
the mountainous terrain where the war was fought,
was not suitable for tank operations. Fourthly,
the under-trained reservists, who are the backbone
of the Israeli army, were not ready for a full-fledged
combat operation against the well-equipped Hezbollah
fighters who fought in small groups and mixed
with the local population.
Some military analysts believe that Tel Aviv also
made a tactical mistake when it relied too much
on massive air strikes which devastated Lebanon
but could do nothing to silence the Hezbollah.
Instead, analysts feel, Tel Aviv should have gone
for immediate troop deployment along the Litani
River, north of where most of Hezbollah forces
were entrenched, and then put pressure on them
from the north and the south,
Israeli forces are still in Southern Lebanon;
and Israel is putting pressure on France, the
peace broker, for immediate deployment of Lebanese
forces and disarming and removing of Hezbollah
forces from the south. The Lebanese government
is stationing its troops on the border with Israel,
but how far they can disarm Hezbollah forces,
especially at this hour, is another matter.
Other players in the game, Iran and Syria, have
not lost their influence in the region as Israel
had hoped. In fact, they have gained significantly
and as one analyst has put it, “the Iranians
have badly rattled the Israelis’ cage.”
France, which played a catalytic role at the Security
Council, has scored a diplomatic victory over
the United States, for the latter’s openly
siding with the Israelis. Given its unique standing
in Lebanon, Paris has also agreed to contribute
troops to the expanded UNIFIL (United Nations
Interim Forces in Lebanon) along with Italy and
New Zealand.
What are the political fallouts? Well, some Israeli
politicians are asking for Olmert’s resignation
for the “humiliating defeat.” His
political future, however, will depend on what
he can achieve on the ground through his diplomatic
efforts with the peace brokers. On the other hand,
this war has made Hezbollah a force to reckon
with in Lebanon. Currently, they are a minor partner
with twenty members in the parliament and one
or two ministers in the present Lebanese Cabinet.
Given their current level of popularity and standing
in Lebanon, they might very well emerge as one
of the major players in any future elections as
militant Hamas triumphed over the moderate Al
Fattah at the last Palestinian elections.
The Israeli aggression, its continued occupation
of Arab land, and the ongoing devastating Iraq
war have unfortunately sidelined moderates in
the Middle East and hardliners have gained power
in Tehran, Damascus and Baghdad. Last week, a
retired bureaucrat with long standing international
exposure, summed it up very well when he expressed
his happiness at Hezbollah’s military victory
but, at the same time, expressed his deep concern
that it might give wrong signals to militants
in our own region. This is the predicament of
moderates in the entire Muslim world.
(Syed Muazzem Ali is a former Bangladesh Foreign
Secretary)
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