Beware, the
Quicksand of Iraq!
By Ahmad Faruqui, PhD
Dansville, CA
The quicksand of
Iraq has swallowed another despot. However, the
situation on the streets is unlikely to improve
with the hanging of Saddam. He stopped being politically
relevant three-and-a-half years ago when the Americans
marched into Baghdad. Since then, Iraq has been
nominally under the control of the US and various
US-sponsored Iraqi regimes. In reality, Iraq has
succumbed to widespread anarchy and is a failed
state. A variety of militias are vying for control,
each deriving its oxygen from the US occupation.
The occupation is doing poorly but none of the
power brokers in Washington are in the mood to
change US strategy. The well-thought warnings
of the Iraq Study Group may go unheeded, like
those of Cassandra.
President Bush continues to rework his Iraq strategy
but, as long as Dick Cheney remains his most trusted
advisor, no realistic alternative to the current
strategy of “occupy and hold” will
emerge. Cheney remains “the Cardinal Richelieu
of the whole thing,” to quote retired Lt.-Gen.
Trainor, who co-authored “Cobra II.”
The buzzword in Washington remains “surge.”
It calls for the deployment of tens of thousands
of American troops — perhaps as many as
30,000 – to stabilize Baghdad. That would
raise the total American strength in Iraq to some
170,000. Would that change the ground realities?
If last summer’s surge is any guide, the
answer is no.
That effort, Operation Together Forward II, had
a dampening effect on violence in some Baghdad
neighborhoods. But, as the Pentagon’s most
recent report to Congress reveals, “Death
squads adapted to the new security environment
and resumed their activities.”
Iraq is deteriorating so fast that even President
Bush now concedes that the US is not winning the
war. Violent attacks are occurring at the rate
of 1,000 every week, up from 800 a week three
months ago. While the majority of attacks appear
to be directed at American forces, it is the Iraqi
military and civilians that are taking the hit.
The Iraqi police are ineffective, with some simply
not showing up for work and others serving as
double agents.
The concept of a surge, while militarily useless,
is politically insightful, since it reveals a
deep-rooted ambivalence about the war in America.
The early American soldiers who marched into Baghdad
were recruits who thought they were joining a
“crusade” to extract revenge for 9/11.
Some of the bombs that were dropped on Iraqi installations
bore the names of people killed on that date.
The war’s objectives have now been muddied
to the point that they resemble the movements
of a weather cock. The plethora includes stabilizing
Baghdad, bringing democracy to Iraq, containing
Iran and Syria and destroying the terrorist infrastructure.
The unstated objectives include protecting Israel,
safeguarding access to the region’s oil
fields, containing Iran and, most importantly,
making sure the war is not lost on Bush’s
watch.
The situation bears an eerie resemblance to the
Vietnam War. As reported by Col. Harry Summers
in his classic work “On Strategy,”
70 percent of American general officers did not
know the objective of the war. Clausewitz’s
first principle, “All wars should be fought
for a clear, attainable objective,” was
violated and the war was lost.
Former US Secretary of State Colin Powell, who
served in Vietnam, has broken his silence. Powell,
who rose to become Chairman of the Joint Chiefs,
says that the entire US Army is not large enough
to stabilize Baghdad, a city of 5 million in a
country of some 25 million.
Opposition to the surge has surfaced within the
serving top brass. Gen. John Abizaid, the CENTCOM
commander, is taking early retirement. He feels
that a major buildup in Iraq would drain the US
Army and Marine Corps of their strategic reserves.
Marine Corps Commandant Gen. James Conway put
it bluntly: “If you commit your reserve
for something other than a decisive win, or to
stave off defeat, then you have essentially shot
your bolt.”
To keep things in perspective, it is worth recalling
that the Soviet Union was unable to stabilize
Afghanistan, a nation of 18 million, with 150,000
troops. Earlier, the US had failed to stabilize
Vietnam with 500,000 troops. The White House vociferously
rejects any suggestion that Iraq is turning into
a quagmire. That may be so because the terrain
in Iraq is that of a desert and not that of a
jungle. But it is evident to all but the neocons
that the US is stuck knee deep in quicksand.
With the Iraqi prime minister at his side, Bush
declared a few weeks earlier in Amman that there
would be no “graceful exit” from Iraq.
He argues, “If we leave, they [the terrorists]
will follow us here.” He does not see civil
war in Iraq, only sectarian violence. He implores
patience, saying, “We will succeed, unless
we quit.” The newest mantra is, “Failure
is not an option.”
Forgetting what he said on the deck of the USS
Abraham Lincoln just three years ago, he is now
asking the families of American servicemen to
“be ready for more sacrifices.” His
secretary of state insists that the new Iraq will
help stabilize the Middle East, even though her
ambassadors must have told her that they can’t
sell that theory to anyone in the region. And
a recent US poll reveals that two-thirds of her
compatriots are not buying the theory either.
A Greek tragedy is being played out in the amphitheater
of Mesopotamia. The play opens in Abu Ghraib prison,
with naked Iraqi soldiers being forced to lie
top of each other in center stage, forming a grotesque
human pyramid. Then the innocents who were massacred
in Haditha march in, hymning a dirge. An American
couple appears next, bearing on a scroll the names
of the 3,000-plus Americans killed in action.
A man shouts that the war has cost the American
taxpayer $350 billion but he remains homeless.
Finally, there appears the Great Conqueror in
a wheeled chariot. With sword drawn, furrowed
brow and menacing eye, he calls upon his elusive
foe to come forward. Instead, a chorus appears
and chants:
Beware, Beware, Beware
O Mighty One, Beware!
The Quicksand of Iraq
Has swallowed many a Conqueror.
Victory is a mirage that lures your forces
Toward the Great Beyond.
Go home, Go home, Go home!”
In the distance, the deposed Saddam swings from
the gallows. The apparition of a departed American
president appears and chides the Great Conqueror
for having embarked on war. The curtain falls
but the drama of the wretched continues on the
streets of Iraq. The quicksand hungers for more
victims.
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