Najam Sethi on Desperation in PDM: Says It is "Now or Never" for PML-N
By Riaz Haq
CA

 

Prominent Pakistani journalist and political analyst Najam Sethi, a strong critic of Prime Minister Imran Khan, sees desperation among the Pakistani Democratic Movement (PDM) leaders. In a recent interview with well-known journalists Raza Rumi and Murtaza Solangi on  Naya Daur  social media channel, Sethi said the Pakistani opposition, particularly PML-N, believe it is "now or never" for them.  

PDM Leadership L to R: Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Maryam Nawaz

Najam Sethi added that if the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government led by Prime Minister Khan survives the current five-year term and succeeds in stabilizing the nation's economy,  the ruling party will be re-elected for another five-year term in 2023 with the support of what Sethi calls "Miltablishment" (a euphemism for Pakistani military). This, Sethi said, would mean that the PML-N would break up and lose its relevance. Sethi said there is genuine support for PTI in spite of Imran Khan government's failures in the first two years. This support is particularly strong among the  youthful voters  who are willing to forgive PTI's poor handling of the economy. 

Dr Rasul Bakhsh Rais, Professor of political science at Lahore University of Management Science (LUMS), has offered similar analysis in an op ed published in  Arab News . He asks: "Why can’t opposition parties wait for the next elections, is the six-million-dollar question". Here's an excerpt from Rais's op ed that captures his article’s essence: 

"The two major dynastic parties— the  Pakistan Muslim League (N)  and the  Pakistan People’s Party  are concerned that if Khan continues to stabilize and devise strategies for reforms, which he is set to roll out in the coming months, he may win the next election. If that happens, it will end  dynastic elite  politics, as staying in the political wilderness could cause splits, defections and fragmentation". 

The PDM strategy of forcing mid-term elections by resigning from assemblies may not work because the interests of PPP and PML-N, the two biggest components of PDM, do not converge.  While it is true that PML-N has little to lose by resigning their seats, the PPP has a lot to lose because it is already the ruling party in Sindh with its patronage power intact. And the PPP has no hope of winning national elections to form federal government. If the PDM protests are sustained, however, it won't be smooth sailing for PTI either. Dr Rais sums up the situation very well as follows:

"Resigning from the assemblies is an option, but why would the PPP do so, losing its government in Sindh. Things may not be easy for the government of Khan either, as instability and confrontation may continue to divert his attention away from reforms and rebuilding a ‘new’ Pakistan. Failure then would work well into the strategy of the opposition for the next elections". 

(Riaz Haq is a Silicon Valley-based Pakistani-American analyst and writer. He blogs at  www.riazhaq.com )