Bhutto’s Murder Plunges Pakistan Deep into Turmoil
The country-wide outpouring of rage and riots, mayhem and lootings, torching of banks, railway stations and wagons, with wild gangs rampaging through cities and killing no fewer than 44 persons over the past three days since the assassination in Rawalpindi of Benazir Bhutto cannot be rationally analyzed as reactions to the murder of a charismatic public figure. More likely, it is indicative of a deeper malaise that has erupted into the open. Their berserk behavior might have been triggered by their cooped up frustration against the ruling elite over monopolizing the fruits of economic progress. No doubt, the country has made notable economic gains under Musharraf’s watch, but their filter down effects have been negligible. Prices of basic necessities of life have skyrocket without a parallel rise in incomes of the lower strata of society.
Benazir, a formidable fighter in opposition but a deplorable disaster while in power, had in her election campaign speeches in various parts of the country held out to the poor and the downtrodden dreams of fulfilling days to come. But during her earlier two stints in power, she had spent her efforts in feathering her own nest and in foreign travels enjoying the red carpet treatment and cultivating foreign dignitaries. Yet, the people relished the respect and significance that she gave them and the images of better days she painted for them.
The crux of the matter remains that the people remained disappointed with the crumbs from the table of the oligarchs thrown their way. The Decade of Reforms of President Ayub and the White Revolution of the Shah of Iran provide good examples of the laudable projects that became counter-productive owing to their fruits not reaching the masses.
If the situation is not handled wisely by the authorities, it might even lead to a civil war. President Musharraf is a convincing communicator. He must level with the people taking them fully into confidence, instead of letting his minions, like the spokesperson of the Interior Ministry, come out with flawed presentations. There is no harm in admitting the security lapse. TV clips have shown a young man wearing sunglasses firing shots at Benazir from his handgun. The story woven by the Interior fellow falls just short of saying that Benazir committed suicide, so there is no responsibility of any civil or military security agency.
The inept handling of the tragedy has enabled Hillary Clinton, the forerunner US Presidential hopeful, to talk about “the possibility of the country’s military might have assassinated Benazir Bhutto because the killing took place in the garrison city of Rawalpindi.” According to the Newsday story of December 29, she made the suggestion “that the US divert aid away from its military to social welfare programs.”
For the first time in the history of Pakistan, respect for the military as an institution has plummeted. As the Newsweek of December 27 has pointed out “The focal point of the outrage at the moment seems to be Musharraf himself -and by extension, the Bush administration- which has supplied him with about $1 billion a year in an increasingly controversial aid program.”
The mass popular revulsion over the Bhutto assassination has unleashed intense instability in Pakistan. Western security experts fear that the country’s nuclear materials could fall into the hands of Islamic militants if instability deepens. M.J. Gohel, the head of the Asia-Pacific Foundation, a London-based security and intelligence think-tank, has predicted: “It’s only a matter of time before al-Qaeda or somebody sympathetic to them gets hold of nuclear weapons….It is the most unstable country in the world that has nuclear weapons. Iran may want nuclear weapons, but it doesn’t have them today. Pakistan does.” This statement epitomizes the fears generally held in the Western countries over Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. But, it is also a fact that the US authorities do believe that the command and control system laid down by Musharraf has placed the weapons safely under the control of Pakistan army. If the political turmoil continues and destabilizes the country, the US high command might decide to step into the country to take hold of the weapons so that they do not fall into the hands of the Islamic extremists.
Technological advances, it is felt, would enable the manufacture of a “dirty bomb” if the terrorists could manage to secure small quantities of enriched uranium that is available in the secure bunkers of Pakistan. From the Western viewpoint, Israel is the country most susceptible and vulnerable to a dirty bomb attack and has to be protected at all cost -including a preemptive action.
As for the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), it has engaged in populist and even pseudo-socialist rhetoric, but it has always been a representative of the Pakistan’s landed aristocracy and a firm defender of its power and privileges. The biggest bane of Pakistan’s politics is that it is personality driven. This has led to the existence of certain political dynasties in the country. The Bhutto dynasty was the most outstanding, so much so that the party elected Benazir as Chairperson of the party for life –a flaring irony given the proclivity of Benazir to present herself as the embodiment of democracy. The Bhuttos undoubtedly constitute a dynasty and nothing gives a dynasty as much prestige and charisma as martyrdom.
The PPP, a powerful political party, is now leaderless. Benazir saw to it that no one in the party stood up to her. Nor did she groom anyone to succeed her. Matter of fact, she destroyed quickly anyone who held out the possibility of a challenge to her leadership, including her own brother.
While this column was being composed, news came that the Executive Committee of the PPP has decided to nominate her son, Belawal, 19, a law student at Oxford, as the Chairman of the Party on the basis of her will. So, the dynasty continues. Would the teenager Belawal be able to handle the complex affairs of the Party with the backing of his playboy father, Asif Ali Zardari, the elderly Makhdoom Amin Fahim, and Benazir’s personal coterie? Internecine strife within the clan and the senior members of the party is likely to cause its melt down.
With the disappearance of Bhutto from the political scene, the United States has to rely more heavily on Musharraf who has a personal stake in the fight against the terrorists having been their target twice but was destined to narrowly escaped both times.
Elections, that are likely to be held on schedule on January 8 or shortly thereafter, may hopefully throw up new leadership that may inspire the people and plug the turmoil. Let us hope so.
arifhussaini@hotmail.com
