January
05, 2007
India & China Lead Resurgent
Asia
Quite a few economists of world
repute have predicted that the 21st century will
witness a spectacular resurgence of Asia under the
leadership of India and China that command one-third
of world population. On a visit to India last January,
I could feel the progress and the consequent euphoria
and buoyancy among the people at large. No doubt,
appalling poverty still haunted a substantial sector
of the society, but I did notice cracks in the shackles
of the caste system and an upward surge of talented
and hardworking young men irrespective of their
lineage.
The US National Intelligence Council carried out
an intensive survey a coupe of years back and declared:
“In the same way that commentators refer to
the 1900s as the American Century, the early 21st
century may be seen as the time when some of the
developing world, led by India and China, came into
their own.” It could also mark “a definitive
break with some of the post-World War II institutions
and practices.”
The impact of the growth of the two Asian giants
is already being felt in neighboring countries.
For instance, Pakistan - after serving for a decade
as a surrogate in the war in Afghanistan and wasting
another decade in the squabbles for power and pelf
by two puny, short-sighted leaders - has had to
fall in line with India and China and set economic
development as its top priority. It has still to
smooth out several wrinkles in its fabric such as
the military dominance, the feudalistic, oligarchic
structure and insufficient emphasis on human development.
Such impediments, by all indications, are losing
their grip; for, the wheels of change are turning
and cannot be put in reverse.
The Third World countries have wallowed too long
in dire poverty and backwardness, dissipating energies
on internecine strife, border conflicts and subservience
to foreign interests.
Premier Manmohan Singh of India put it aptly: “Our
common enemy is poverty, ignorance and disease.
We should devote all our energies to fighting these.”
India’s relations with China had remained
strained since 1962 border war that left unresolved
the status of some 130,000 kilometers of territories,
apart from the conflict over Tibet and Sikkim.
The Chinese have decided to put such issues on the
back burner. The Chinese ambassador in New Delhi
placed them in perspective when he declared, “Business
is more important for the Chinese people than the
border.”
It was the late Rajiv Gandhi who had, as far back
as 1988, declared on a visit to China that the territorial
issues should be solved through negotiations in
a spirit of give and take. Several years later,
Premier Vajpayee on a similar visit conceded that
Tibet was a part of China. And, Premier Wen of China
has accepted Sikkim as part of India. The other
territorial issues - Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh
- are also likely to be solved peacefully.
One hopes the same spirit prevails on the issue
of Kashmir. President Musharraf and Premier Manmohan
Sing appear to be moving in that direction. A resolution
of this unfinished agenda of partition would be
more to the advantage of India in the long run.
Both the US and China seek stability in the region
and a reduction in Pakistan’s feelings of
vulnerability vis-a-vis India by buttressing its
military strength.
No doubt, the most remarkable aspect of the Sino-Pakistan
relationship is its durable quality. John Carver,
author of “Protracted Contest: Sino-Indian
Rivalry in the 20th Century” has made a special
mention of the enduring nature of the relationship.
While China’s relations with other countries
have waxed and waned, he observed, partnership with
Pakistan has remained constant from 1950 till today.
An Indian foreign office spokesman recently pointed
out: “India expects its growing economic engagement
with China to prompt Beijing to adopt a more even-handed
policy in South Asia.” One wonders if it would
not be more advantageous to seek an abiding solution
by removing the irritant of Kashmir through the
same policy of give and take as has informed the
solution of territorial issues with China.
“India and China can together reshape the
world order”, Manmohan Singh declared in a
welcome address to Premier Wen who reciprocated
by saying: “We have taken the relations to
a new level” and mentioned the adoption of
a program to boost two-way trade from $13.6 billion
to $20 billion by 2008 and to $30 billion by 2010.
Significantly, Premier Wen had commenced his visit
to India from Bangalore, the world capital of information
technology.
"If India and China cooperate in the IT industry",
he remarked,. “we will signify the coming
of the Asian century in the IT industry”.
He referred to China’s attainments in the
field of hardware and India’s standing in
software, as the twin towers of the technology,
and pleaded for a coordination of the two.
While Premier Wen kept insisting on a strategic
and cooperative partnership between Indian and Chinese
businesses, his enthusiasm evoked a cautious response,
according to Indian analyst Indrajit Basu. “Allowing
China unbridled access to the India markets could
result in local markets getting swamped with Chinese
products, the impact of which would far outweigh
the benefit accruing to India as a result of its
access to China’s huge market.”
Suhel Nathani, a prominent Indian economic consultant
pointed out that while China’s exports to
India have been dominated by electronic products
and organic chemicals, India’s export basket
is largely made up of raw materials and intermediate
semi-finished products, mostly iron and steel, and
ores. “You could say therefore that China
is buying metals and other raw materials from us
and selling it back to us after value addition.”
But, many other experts argue that by moving toward
a strategic partnership, India and China can pave
the way together for a broader economic integration
not only within Asia but also globally. In their
fear of Chinese manufacturing prowess and marketing
expertise, Indian businesses overlook the benefits
that could be extracted from growing synergies between
the two economies.
If India and China are to lead Asia to a place under
the sun, instead of remaining dominated by the rich
man’s club of Davos, they will have to overcome
such fears and join hands for a concerted exertion
of their knowledge and will to labor and live well.
In any case, they can’t escape this dictate
of global economy which has already put them on
the path to progress. The 21st century belongs to
them. Arifhussaini@hotmail.com
