January
26, 2007
Somalia: Ethiopia Rides the Tiger
(While researching on the current
Somalia-Ethiopia conflict, I came across the following
write-up by Immanuel Walterstein, Senior Research
scholar at Yale University that carries a lot of
useful information on the subject. I reproduce it
here for the benefit of the readers of my columns.)
The Prime Minister of Ethiopia,
Meles Zenawi, must have been studying the magnificent
successes of the US preemptive invasion of Iraq
and Israel’s recent foray into Lebanon.
He has clearly decided to emulate them. His argument
is exactly that which was given by George W. Bush
and Ehud Olmert. We must attack our neighbor because
we have to keep Islamic terrorists from pursuing
their jihad and attacking us.
In each case, the invader was sure of his military
superiority and the fact that the majority of the
population would hail the attackers as liberators.
Zenawi asserts he is cooperating in the US worldwide
struggle against terrorism. And indeed, the United
States has offered not only its intelligence support
but has sent its air force and units of special
troops to assist the Ethiopians.
Still, each local situation is a bit different.
And it is worth reviewing the recent history of
what is called the Horn of Africa, in which countries
have switched geopolitical sides with some ease
in the last forty years. Throughout the first half
of the twentieth century, Ethiopia was a symbol
of African resistance to European imperialism. The
Ethiopians defeated the Italian colonial troops
at Adowa in 1896 and the country remained independent.
When Italy tried again in 1935, Emperor Haile Selassie
went to the League of Nations and pleaded for collective
security against invasion. He received no help.
Ethiopia then became t he symbol of Africa throughout
the Black world. The colors of its flag became the
colors of Africa. And at the end of the Second World
War, Ethiopian independence was restored. In the
difficult genesis of the Organization of African
Unity (OAU) in 1963, Haile Selassie used his prestige
to play a key role as intermediary between differing
African states. The OAU established its headquarters
in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa. But if
Ethiopia served this symbolic role throughout Africa,
it also had an oppressive and aristocratic state
machinery. And when acute famines began to plague
the country in 1970s, internal discontent mounted
rapidly.
In 1974, an army officer, Mengistu Haile Mariam,
led a revolution against feudal monarchy and established
a military government which soon proclaimed itself
Marxist-Leninist. Before Mengistu, relation between
the United States and Ethiopia had been warm. Ethiopia’s
neighbor, Somalia had strained relations with the
United States. It also had a military government
under Siad Barre. However, it called itself scientific
socialist and had fairly close relations with the
Soviet Union, offering it a naval base.
After the 1974 coup, when Mengistu proclaimed his
government Marxist-Leninist, the Soviet Union dumped
Somalia and embraced the larger and more important
Ethiopia. So the United States embraced Somalia
in turn, and took over the naval base. To understand
what happened next, a few words of ethnic analysis
of the two countries is needed. Ethiopia is an ancient
Christian kingdom, long dominated by Amhara aristocrats.
There is another large Christian group, the Tigre,
who speak a different language. There are two other
quite large groups - the Oromo (half of whom are
Muslim) and the Muslim Somalis. In addition, at
the end of the Second World War, Ethiopia absorbed
the coastal Italian colony of Eritrea. Under Haile
Selassie, only the Amhara counted, and Eritrea was
waging a war for its independence. Without Eritrea,
Ethiopia is landlocked.
Somalia was quite different. There had been two
colonies - Italian Somaliland and British Somaliland.
Italian Somaliland became independent in 1960 in
the course of liquidating Italian colonies, and
British Somaliland was added onto it. In the 1960s,
when ethnic conflicts began to plague many African
states, it was commonly said that one African country
that would never know ethnic conflict was Somalia,
since almost everyone in the country was ethnically
Somali, spoke Somali, and was a Muslim.
People in both countries chafed under the respective
dictatorships. And when the Cold War was ended neither
government could survive. Both Mengitsu and Barre
were overthrown in 1991. What replaced Mengistu
was a Tigre liberation movement, which at first
spoke a Maoist nationalist language. As a way of
distinguishing itself from the Mengistu regime,
it acceded to Eritrea’s independence, only
to regret later. Christian, if not Amhara, dominance
soon became the major theme and Oromo and Somali
uprisings began. Human rights activists do not consider
Zenawi’s government much better than Mengistu’s.
In Somalia, the “perfect” ethnic state
fell apart, as Somali clans began to fight each
other for power. After 1991, the United States began
to embrace the new leader of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi,
who abandoned his “Maoism” altogether.
Somalia was left out in the cold.
When the United States sent in troops on a “humanitarian”
mission to quell disorders the United States got
the brutal drubbing we now call “Blackhawk
down”, and it withdrew its troops. A long
multi-sided civil war continued. In 2006, a group
called the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) took over
the capital, Mogadishu, and expelled the feuding
clan leaders, restoring relative peace for the first
time in more than a decade.
The United States saw the UIC as a replica of the
Taliban and allied to Al-Qaeda. So did Zenawi. So
Ethiopia decided to invade, oust the UIC, and prop
up the powerless central government that had existed
on paper since 2004 but had been unable even to
enter the capital city.
There we went again. Of course, Ethiopia (with the
United States) has won the first round. The UIC
has abandoned Mogadishu. But the Somalis aren’t
welcoming the Ethiopians as liberators. The clan
leaders are fighting each other again, and Mogadishu
is again in turmoil. The Ethiopia government is
facing troubles not only in Somalia but now increasingly
at home as well.
As Israel had to withdraw from Lebanon, and as the
United States is going to have to do in Iraq, so
Ethiopia will have to pull back soon from Somalia.
The situation with Somalia will not have been improved
because of its preventive attack. Preventive attacks
are always a potential boomerang. Either one wins
overwhelmingly or one loses badly.
