Pakistan: The Emerging Political Scenario
The largely unlettered but remarkably astute voters of Pakistan have proved wrong the predictions of many political pundits, both local and foreign, that the Feb. 18 elections would be widely rigged, cause a lot of death and destruction, and set in motion forces that might lead to the very disintegration of the country.
The elections were not rigged, they were held in a largely peaceful environ, and the party which was defeated accepted the setback gracefully. The voters have shown more intelligence and sagacity and more political maturity and a better awareness of their interests than the pundits were willing to concede to them. The broadcast media, the TV channels in particular, have played a significant role in informing them of the election process and the significance of their vote.
The people have undoubtedly voted in a sensible and intelligent manner, choosing democracy over dictatorship, moderation over religious extremism, federalism over the rigid central control. Even the rural voters do not seem to have been swayed, like in the past, by the landlords, tribal chieftains, the mullahs, and their own clannish loyalties. While bulk of the credit for the morale-boosting outcome goes to the sagacity of the people, some of it goes also to President Musharraf for fulfilling the promises he had made to the nation. His role in ensuring fair, free and peaceful elections merits a special mention, as several of his decisions since he sacked the Chief Justice on March 9, 2007 to clear his own way for re-election as President have been open to question.
Clearly the elections have proved wrong the Newsweek and others who had labeled Pakistan as the world’s most dangerous nation. The voters have virtually routed the religious parties from the political landscape putting an end to the fears that the extremists backed by them would grab power and the country’s nuclear arsenal if Musharraf and his military base were dislodged in a severe civil turmoil. Musharraf is no longer in uniform and the army under Gen. Ashfaq Kayani is distancing itself from the civil society. A number of military officers occupying civilian posts have already been withdrawn to the army headquarters. Others are on their way back. And, it is now generally accepted that the country’s nuclear weapons are fully secured.
The politicians too are demonstrating a lot of maturity. The two major parties, PPP and PML-N, have already arrived at an understanding regarding the formation of governments at the center and the provinces. They have to make a success of the democratic process that has become available to them after nine years. They just cannot repeat the mistakes of 1988-99 political era when they pursued stupid rivalries, narrow interests, and confrontational politics. The era was also marked by corruption scandals about the leaders of both parties. The shenanigans of Asif Zardari during the two stints of Benazir Bhutto had become the talk of the town. He is now radiating the image of a sensible politician committed to a government of national consensus.
It appears that both Sharif and Zardari have realized their follies and are now cooperating with each other. Their first priority is to secure 2/3rd majority in the Assembly to undo the amendments in the 1973 constitution by the Musharraf regime. With the alignment of ANP, this looks within sight. The spirit of tolerance, magnanimity, and accommodation that prevails now should continue till the next elections so that the democratic process continues unabated.
The issue of the restoration of the sacked judges has to be tackled in this spirit. It may be left to the parliament to take a decision. The politicians have to strengthen the parliament and not fritter away its position. The voters have given the mandate in favor of the supremacy of the parliament. And, it wouldn’t be far wrong to interpret their vote as a repudiation of Musharraf and his coterie. Almost all of his men lost at the polls. But, they have to be complimented for having accepted gracefully their defeat –the first such phenomenon in Pakistan’s electoral history.
There is thus a consensus among all sectors of the society in favor of civilian rule. It is not an easy task for the military that has remained at the helm of affairs half of the time of the country’s existence to accept the supremacy of the parliament. It was a military ruler who had inserted article 58-2(b) into the Constitution that gave the President the power to sack the Prime Minister and the Parliament. The one-line defense budget is not subject to civilian scrutiny; nor is its expenditures open to civilian audit and accountability. The army is a part of the Pakistan polity but not at par with the other components. It enjoys a difference – a vast difference tilted in its own favor. Then, the army has the backing of the West, the United States in particular. US President and the Secretary of State have come out with statements that they would continue dealing with President Musharraf. This sends a clear message to the civilian leadership.
Asif Zardari’s visit to the US Ambassador may be viewed in this context. Both print and broadcast media have found it objectionable.
Musharraf is regarded by the US as a crucial ally in the war on terror. Pakistan has received $10 billion in US aid since 9/11 and is reimbursed the expenses incurred on the army operations against the pro-Taliban elements in the tribal belt of the country. Over the past few years, some 1500 of Pakistani soldiers have been killed in action. Eighty thousand of them are detailed in that region. The US is keen to see the continuance of the anti-extremist military operations in the area. Hence its support to Musharraf. The PPP and the PML-N, on the other hand, want to limit military action and seek a solution through dialogue. Fortunately, the voters have lent their support in the Frontier province to the secular ANP whose leadership has already expressed its willingness to cooperate fully with the two mainstream parties and to support all measures calculated to counter religious extremism.
Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari have many things in common. Both are debarred from seeking election to the parliament owing to their involvement in criminal cases. Both have earned notoriety for corruption. Both are superb moneymakers irrespective of the means. Considering their own limited intellectual attainments, both are heavily dependent on high-achieving advisers. These common features make it all the more essential for them to remain locked in a spirit of cooperation for a long time to come. They should always bear in mind that the army has been and will continue to be the decisive power in Pakistan till it is tamed over a long and uninterrupted period of civilian rule to accept the supremacy of the parliament.
Both have already accumulated so much wealth that they can afford now to expend their time and energy for the betterment of the poverty stricken nation. Although greed has no limit, one hopes that they would keep it in check and concentrate on solving the enormous problems that the country faces now.
