March 25 , 2011
In Tumultuous Arab World, Gaddafi Next to Exit
In the deadly, ominous struggle that is currently underway in Libya and throughout much of the Middle East and North Africa between the ageing authoritarian rulers and their mostly young citizens, who have had enough of institutionalized human degradation, Col. Muammar Gaddafi is perhaps the next in line to exit.
Being a largely unbalanced leader, a megalomaniac, he ignored with disdain the wind of change sweeping across the entire region toppling one after another the long time leaders of Tunisia and Egypt and causing deep apprehensions in the hearts of the rulers of Algeria , Morocco , Jordan, Yemen , Iran , Bahrain and Saudi Arabia .
The Arab world is erupting in violence, and even the mighty hand of OPEC can’t do much about it. Change is inevitable. The region is opening up economically and politically after decades of stagnation despite the enormous oil wealth. A massive reordering of the state of affairs is taking place reminiscent of the escape from bondage of Soviet territories in the wake of the fall of that empire in 1989. The birth pangs are ineluctable.
“There are decades”, said Lenin, when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” A wise leader senses the mood of the time and decides to be on the right side of history. Not Gaddafi.
When the youth and the frustrated citizens of his own land resorted to protests against his autocratic rule, Gaddafi resorted to what he knows best - ruthless suppression. And, he attributed the agitation to Al Qaeda machinations and/or the intervention of Western states bent on capturing his oil wells.
Libya , a member of OPEC, holds indeed the largest proven oil reserves in Africa. Three years back, its reserves were estimated to be 41.5 billion barrels. It produces almost two million barrels a day. Its oil is a much-coveted commodity on the international market, largely because it is sulfur free, requires less processing, and its extraction costs less than $1 per barrel that holds its massive profit potential. The consumers are mainly in Europe; hence, the transportation cost is also low. One-third of the output goes to Italy, 17% to Germany, followed by France and Spain, with a mere 6% to the US.
Oil accounts for much of Libya’s $77 billion a year GDP. It is a sparsely populated country of six million, less than half the population of Karachi. Per capita income works out to $12,000, the highest in Africa. But the income is not equitably distributed, so that a third of Libyans live below the poverty line and 30% of the workers are unemployed or underemployed. Gaddafi favors the western portion of the country with the oil money largesse, almost neglecting the eastern areas, owing to his tribal proclivities. This discrimination holds the potential for an East-West conflict and a civil war.
Benghazi , a city of over 600,000 in the east, second largest of the country, is the hub of rebel activities and the headquarters of the Transitional National Council, set up by the rebels as the legitimate claimant to governance of the country.
When the cooped up frustration of the deprived sectors, taking a cue from the events of Tunisia and Egypt, found expression in the streets, he ordered his men in uniform to suppress with full force all agitation irrespective of the bloodshed that ensued. Several units of the armed forces wary of killing theirs own kith and kin defected to the side of the dissidents. The military defectors included some Generals too. The might of the protestors is not even a patch on that of the regular armed forces and Gaddafi’s militias –paid mercenaries hailing mainly from other lands of Africa. The country’s youth and other civilians who have joined the ranks of the protestors, are high on morale but almost zero on discipline and training. The mayhem caused by Gaddafi’s well-armed troops and mercenary militias attracted international attention to the intense tragedy.
It was generally felt in foreign countries that the protestors would grow organically, like in Tunisia and Egypt; but in Libya the protestors were up against a ruthless autocrat who had structured his power on family, friend and tribal loyalties. The people at large had little opportunity for the acquisition of quality education, professional and technical skills to eke out a reasonable living in a country with the highest per capita income in the entire continent of Africa. But the kleptomaniac Gaddafi family and his cronies stole the oil income and stashed it away in foreign lands. Their assets in the US are estimated to be $32 billion.
President Barack Obama ordered on March 12 that these assets be frozen, saying that the US was imposing unilateral sanctions on Libya because continued violence there posed “an unusual and extraordinary threat” to America’s national security and foreign policy. But, he has been wary of taking any step that might engulf the US in another war in a Muslim land. The US is having a hard time extricating itself from the quagmires of Iraq and Afghanistan. He has therefore been concentrating efforts, through direct talks with the concerned leaders or through diplomatic channels, to develop a consensus on the Libyan issue. And, he has been enormously successful in this. A clear indication of this is the UN Security Council resolution of March 17 declaring Libya “a no-fly zone” to keep Gaddafi from further slaughtering his people with air attacks. The following developments indicate the attainments of Obama administration’s diplomacy:
The Security Council imposed on March 12 an asset freeze on Gaddafi, his four sons and one daughter and a travel ban on the whole family along with 10 of his close associates;
The Council also agreed, 15-0, to refer Gaddafi’s deadly crackdown on the protestors to the International Criminal Court at the Hague;
The Libyan ambassador to the UN and other members of the mission renounced Gaddafi;
In Geneva on March 11, the UN Human Rights Council called for an investigation into crimes against humanity in Libya and recommended suspension of Libya’s membership
While maintaining that “Arab revolutions belong to Arabs”, French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, said that air strikes on Libya would be justified if Gaddafi continued to indulge in air attacks on non-violent protestors;
French President and British PM in a letter to European Union President welcomed the formation of an Interim Transitional National Council in Benghazi and offered to enter into a dialogue with it;
France has recognized the Interim Council as Libya’s legitimate representative;
Both the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council have swung against Gaddafi. The African Union too is unfavorably disposed towards him.
The Arabian Gulf Oil Co. has announced plans to funnel funds to the Libyan opposition.
The above facts indicate the extent to which Gaddafi has become isolated and a pariah in the community of nations. His offer of a ceasefire will have to be matched by the other measures outlined for him by the United Nations.
PS: I had just finished the above piece that news started pouring in that a broad coalition of states had attacked Libya to enforce the UN resolution on a no-fly zone in that country and the measures necessary to protect civilians from pro-Gaddafi forces. This followed on the heels of a meeting in Paris of Western and Arab leaders on how to carry out the UN mandate. Significantly, the US government's announcement about the attack was made in Paris by Hillary Clinton, leader of the US delegation, and not President Obama. Gaddafi, another report said, had opened his arms depots to the people to enable them to fight for Libya's "independence, unity and honor"; but, unwittingly perhaps subjecting the country to a civil war. The coming few weeks will unfold the shape of things to come.
arifhussaini@homail.com
