Balochistan
at the Verge of Revolutionary Changes?
Change seems to have become
inevitable in the hoary, anachronistic pattern of
life in Pakistan’s neglected province of Balochistan.
A cataclysm is building up internally and more so
under external pressures.
The recent agreement for peace between the Government
and Nawab Akbar Bugti, terms of which have inexplicably
been kept secret, may temporarily take care of the
violence that had erupted but like a band-aid it
may be temporarily palliative but not curative in
the long run.
Balochistan is a land of problems and of contradictions.
This land mass of dry, barren mountains and deserts,
commands 43% of the area of Pakistan but only 7%
of its population. It is rich in mineral resources
- natural gas heading the list - but has the lowest
per capita income. Bulk of the area is arbitrarily
ruled by Nawabs and Sardars who were accorded the
titles by the British government pursuing their
policy of indirect rule.
The tribal chieftains drive most expensive cars,
don Savile Row suits and Gucci or Bali shoes, but
their fiefdoms appear frozen in time. Ironically
enough, some - Mengal and Marri for instance - masquerade
as Marxists.
Illiteracy may touch 95% of the population but the
Balochis generally listen to radio broadcasts and
are therefore fairly well informed. The area is
certainly underdeveloped but it is not backward.
The Baloch may be unable to wield a pen but without
exception everyone carries a rifle and learns to
handle one by the time he is ten.
For a fascinating, eyewitness account of various
facets of life, please read Mary Anne Weaver’s
detailed description in the chapter on Balochistan
in her book on Pakistan published from New York
in 2002.
People’s political setups, for instance the
Baloch People’s Liberation Front, Baloch Students
Organization, Baloch Liberation Movement, are all
postured against Islamabad.
Although revolutionary and leftist in pretension,
their agitation is rarely directed towards their
own, all-powerful Sardars. One may attribute this
to the tribal nature of the society. The Sardars,
it must also be acknowledged, usually handle their
vassals adroitly. They maintain close liaison with
senior officials too to keep the government on their
side. Also, they maintain private armies each consisting
of 5000 to 10,000 men in arms to ensure that their
writ prevails in areas under their command.
They adhere to tribal customs such as the obnoxious
‘honor killing’ or the ‘fire test’
in which an accused person’s innocence is
tested by making him walk on red hot, burning coal.
The Sardar’s word is invariably final in all
disputes.
Baloch nationalists demanding greater political
rights, autonomy and control over their national
resources have led four insurgencies - in 1948,
1958-59, 1962-63, and 1973-77 - which were brutally
suppressed by the army.
The Gwadar port project, the network of roads planned
and being built, and the allotment of lands to the
retired army officers in the vicinity of the port,
the eruption of violence at the Sui gas plant, and
the fear of their province being overwhelmed and
colonized by Punjab, have combined for a fifth insurgency
waiting to erupt.
The understanding reached with Nawab Akbar Bugti
by Muslim League president, Chaudhri Shujaat Husain,
may have provided a palliative to ease the tension
at Sui. But, as mentioned above, the basic causes
would continue to simmer and wait for an opportune
time to surface.
External factors are perhaps much more important
in promoting a change.
The most important development in this context is
the China-Pakistan Gwadar port project. The first
phase of this deep-sea port on Makran coast was
completed a few days back within three years of
its launch on March 22, 2002. It already has now
three functioning berths built at a cost of $248
million of which $198m were spent by China and the
remainder $50 million by Pakistan. The second phase
will cost $526m, and is to be financed mainly by
China. It will have nine more berths. Within years,
Gwadar will rank as a major world port.
It would set in motion a chain of developments that
are seen by the Sardars as abridging their own influence
and status. Hence their opposition to the project
leading to the murder on May 3, 2004 of three Chinese
engineers working on the project. Over 500 Chinese
nationals are engaged in construction.
What is significant from Balochistan and Pakistan’s
viewpoint is the fact that it would be a major port
for Chinese trade. Overland links will connect it,
through Karakoram Highway, to China’s Xinjiang
autonomous region - a Muslim majority area - commanding
one-sixth of Chinese land mass. At present this
is an underdeveloped region but China is plowing
$88 billion to bring it at par with other areas.
The proposed Free Trade Area (FTA) between China
and Pakistan will abolish all tariffs and will render
smuggling redundant. The smugglers of Balochistan
are therefore lining up with the other agitators
to sabotage this deal. These smugglers too wear
the mask of Balochi nationalists. Mass media will
have to expose their selfish designs and project
the benefits accruing to the province through this
trade route.
For instance, over the past two years the volume
of trade has jumped to $2.5 billion a year, and
China has invested over $4 billion in Pakistan during
that period. It includes $200 million spent on the
coastal highway connecting Gwadar to Karachi.
Apart from the commercial interest, the Chinese
have found a foothold on the Arabian Sea through
Gwadar. They were worried that the growing presence
of the US in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf, which
supplies to China 60% of its oil imports, held the
possibility of their oil flows being choked off
should relations with the US grow sour. Their access
to Gwadar ensures an alternative route. China, it
may be noted, is right now world’s number
six energy consumer and its rank is fast climbing
up owing to its fast industrial growth.
An additional reason which made the Chinese rush
to the Gwadar project was the leasing of Pasni and
Jacobabad airports to the US by Pakistan. Gwadar
sits in the proximity of the Strait of Hormuz in
the Persian Gulf through which 4% of the world’s
oil passes. It would compete with Iran’s port
of Chabahar being developed jointly by India and
Iran to access the landlocked states of Central
Asia.
The projected Iran-Pakistan-India natural gas pipeline
is also to traverse Balochistan. The volatile Balochistan
situation has held up this $4 billion project that
will not only provide gas to Pakistani consumers
too but also ensure $500 million annually to the
country in transit fees.
Arifhussaini@hotmail.com
March 31, 2005.
