India, China
Leading a Resurgent Asia
Almost on the heels of the visit
to South Asia of the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza
Rice, came the visit to the region of the new Chinese
premier, Wen Jiabao, underscoring the significant
role the two emerging Asian giants - India and China
- are likely to play on the world stage. The two
of them command one-third of world population and
have been recording high growth rates at a fast
clip.
Quite a few economists of world repute have predicted
that the 21st century will witness a spectacular
resurgence of Asia under the leadership of these
two giants.
A December 2004 study by the US National Intelligence
Council had this to say: “In the same way
that commentators refer to the 1900s as the American
Century, the early 21st century may be seen as the
time when some of the developing world, led by India
and China, came into their own.” It could
also mark “a definitive break with some of
the post-World War II institutions and practices.”
The impact of the growth of the two Asian giants
is already being felt in neighboring countries.
For instance, Pakistan - after serving for a decade
as a surrogate in the war in Afghanistan and wasting
another decade in the squabbles for power and pelf
by two puny, short-sighted leaders - has had to
fall in line with India and China and set economic
development as its top priority. It has still to
smooth out several wrinkles in its fabric such as
the military dominance, the feudalistic, oligarchic
structure and insufficient emphasis on human development.
Such impediments, by all indications, are losing
their grip; for, the wheels of change are turning
and can’t be put in reverse.
The Third World countries have wallowed too long
in dire poverty and backwardness, dissipating energies
on internecine strife, border conflicts and subservience
to foreign interests.
Premier Manmohan Singh of India put it aptly: “Our
common enemy is poverty, ignorance and disease.
We should devote all our energies to fighting these.”
India’s relations with China had remained
strained since the 1962 border war that left unresolved
the status of some 130,000 square kilometers of
territories, apart from the conflict over Tibet
and Sikkim.
Before he set out on his South Asia tour, Premier
Wen told the press that the border issues were solvable.
Chinese ambassador in New Delhi added, “Business
is more important for the Chinese people than the
border.”
It was the late Rajiv Gandhi who had, as far back
as 1988, declared on a visit to China that the territorial
issues should be solved through negotiations in
a spirit of give and take. Several years later,
Premier Vajpayee on a similar visit conceded that
Tibet was a part of China. And, now Premier Wen
has accepted Sikkim as part of India. The other
territorial issues - Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh
- are also likely to be resolved peacefully.
One hopes the same spirit prevails on the issue
of Kashmir. A resolution of this unfinished agenda
of partition would be more to the advantage of India
in the long run. Both the US and China seek stability
in the region and a reduction in Pakistan’s
feelings of vulnerability vis-a-vis India by buttressing
its military strength.
The significance of the Treaty of Friendship concluded
by China and Pakistan during Wen’s visit has
to be seen against China’s desire to reduce
Pakistan’s sense of vulnerability. The parties
have agreed to safeguard each other’s unity,
sovereignty and territorial integrity. Of the 22
agreements signed during the Chinese leader’s
visit to Islamabad, there is one for the construction
of four frigates for Pakistan Navy, and another
committing $350 million for Pakistan’s Chashma-II
nuclear power project.
No doubt, the most remarkable aspect of the Sino-Pakistan
relationship is its durable quality. John Carver,
author of “Protracted Contest: Sino-Indian
Rivalry in the 20th Century” has made a special
mention of the enduring nature of the relationship.
While China’s relations with other countries
have waxed and waned, he observed, partnership with
Pakistan has remained constant from 1950 till today.
An Indian foreign office spokesman recently pointed
out: “India expects its growing economic engagement
with China to prompt Beijing to adopt a more even-handed
policy in South Asia.” One wonders if it would
not be more advantageous to seek an abiding solution
by removing the irritant of Kashmir through the
same policy of give and take as has formed the solution
of territorial issues with China.
“India and China can together reshape the
world order”, Manmohan Singh declared in a
welcome address to Premier Wen who reciprocated
by saying: “We have taken the relations to
a new level” and mentioned the adoption of
a program to boost two-way trade from $13.6 billion
to $20 billion by 2008 and to $30 billion by 2010.
Significantly, Premier Wen commenced his visit to
India from Bangalore, the world capital of information
technology.
“If India and China cooperate in the IT industry”,
he remarked. “we will signify the coming of
the Asian century in the IT industry”. He
referred to China’s attainments in the field
of hardware and India’s standing in software,
as the twin towers of the technology, and pleaded
for a coordination of the two.
While Premier Wen kept insisting on a strategic
and cooperative partnership between Indian and Chinese
businesses, his enthusiasm evoked a cautious response,
according to Indian analyst Indrajit Basu. “Allowing
China unbridled access to the India markets could
result in local markets getting swamped with Chinese
products, the impact of which would far outweigh
the benefit accruing to India as a result of its
access to China’s huge market.”
Suhel Nathani, a prominent Indian economic consultant
pointed out that while China’s exports to
India have been dominated by electronic products
and organic chemicals, India’s export basket
is largely made up of raw materials and intermediate
semi-finished products, mostly iron and steel, and
ores. “You could say therefore that China
is buying metals and other raw materials from us
and selling it back to us after value addition.”
But, many other experts argue that by moving toward
a strategic partnership, India and China can pave
the way together for a broader economic integration
not only within Asia but also globally. In their
fear of Chinese manufacturing prowess and marketing
expertise, Indian businesses overlook the benefits
that could be extracted from growing synergies between
the two economies.
If India and China are to lead Asia to a place under
the sun, instead of remaining dominated by the rich
man’s club of Davos, they will have to overcome
such fears and join hands for a concerted exertion
of their knowledge and will to labor and live well.
In any case, they can’t escape this dictate
of global economy which has already put them on
the path to progress. The 21st century belongs to
them.
- Arifhussaini@hotmail.com
