By Syed Arif Hussaini

August 10, 2007

Musharraf-Benazir Tango to the Tune Called by the US


Gen. Pervez Musharraf and his arch political rival, Benazir Bhutto, arrived in Abu Dhabi on July 27 for a one-hour, one-on-one, meeting to finalize a deal for sharing power, which had been under secret negotiations for quite some time between Tariq Aziz, the confidant of the General and Rehman Malik, the interlocutor on behalf of Benazir. Both are well-known figures of Pakistan and former senior officials who had been at one time or another in the focus of media attention. They must have ironed out, in over a dozen meetings, all controversies and left only the final touches for their principals.
The chief sticking point appears to be the General’s insistence to retain his army position for “the unity of command” and seamless implementation of the decisions of the top leadership by the men in uniform. Since the details of the deal have not yet been made public, speculations dominate the media buzz.
It is no secret that the talks were held at the behest of the West, with the US taking the lead, and were intended to forge an understanding between the two major components of the Pakistani society having liberal political views and willing to take on the radical Islamic elements. The US Congress passed legislation a few days back that would make aid to Pakistan conditional on a crackdown on Islamic militants particularly in the tribal areas.
Musharraf and Benazir share views, for instance, on terrorism, elimination of extremism from society, protection of minorities and removal of discrimination against women.
Yet, there is a deep fault line and conflict of interest between the two sectors: the army is a well-disciplined, well-organized sector, but well entrenched into the financial, economic and socials fields of the civil society. The PPP, which is headed by Benazir, has a better representation at the grassroots level than any other political setup. It polled the highest number of votes in the 2002 elections. The founder of the party, Benazir’s father, was an erudite visionary, but not unoften what he did conflicted with what he preached. Socialism was one of the three pillars of his precepts, but in the name of social justice, he hamstrung the thriving industrial sector by nationalizing all key industries and thus causing the exit of their representatives from the elected assemblies and replacing them with the obsequious cronies of the landed aristocracy. Pakistan’s politics thus became a mixture of patronage, tribalism, backstabbing, blackmail and feudalism. The feudal spirit still dominates the society and lies at the root of several social evils including the feudal lords’ aversion to the education of the children of the poor tillers of the soil.
Pakistan’s army has been for decades the best-organized political party of the country. It has staged coupes ostensibly to save the country from an impending crisis no less than four times and has remained in power half of the period of the country’s existence. Strangely enough, every time a man in uniform staged a coup d’etat, bulk of the populace welcomed him warmly. This reflected the failure of the civilian rulers in catering to the aspirations of the people; also, it showed the expectations of the people that the new ruler would attend to their problems. Going by the statistics, the army generals have generally fared much better in this respect. Take, for instance, Musharraf’s period. The economy has expanded at an average of 7% per year spurred by an ambitious privatization program and fueled by Gulf-country investments. Total direct investment reached $6 billion in the past fiscal year, up from 4.5 billion a year earlier. The US has also funneled over $10 billion over the past few years in military and economic assistance.
Military rule, unfortunately, does not accept the pressure of accountability to the taxpayers and the public at large. In the current scenario, the army has but to keep the Western donors happy. The US has ensured, through the latest Pakistan-specific legislation that the anti-terrorist campaigns of the army measure up to the expectations of the US President. It could be seen as if Pakistan army has been rendered answerable to the US President.
No wonder, the ruling men in uniform appear less concerned with the frequent load shedding throughout the country and the unavailability of potable water. In the long run the neglect of such basic human needs will be more explosive for any regime than the much-tarnished extremism.
The Musharraf- Benazir deal may therefore be described at best as personality politics. It is not driven by any lofty moral or national interests but by political compulsions of political survival of both parties. And, it has been planned in the US corridors of power to provide Musharraf with a new source of civilian support – the PPP - instead of the MMA. The latter group of six Islamic parties has a latent sympathy for the Islamic radicals. They had stood by Musharraf in the legislature at several crucial junctures.
The harsh action against the Lal Masjid mullah and his coterie portends the shape of things to come in the tribal areas. That has already triggered the spate of bomb blasts targeting the men in uniform in particular.
Musharraf’s hold on power has considerably weakened after the Supreme Court verdict against his reference on the Chief Justice. He is besieged both domestically and externally. US lawmakers and media no longer trust him. The All Parties Conference convened by Nawaz Sharif in London and attended by 38 parties, with the Chairperson of PPP being conspicuous by her absence, has resolved to form a front against Musharraf. Internal schisms are emerging within the Army itself; the US Congress legislation has aggravated such trends.
Benazir’s personal compulsions are perhaps more forceful. She has been out of power and out of the country for over a decade. That has diluted her hold on the party - many stalwarts of PPP are now working as Ministers in the Musharraf government. She cannot enter Pakistan without being arrested under warrants already out for her unless the corruption cases against her are withdrawn.
Apart from these personal compulsions, both parties – absolute power and absolute corruption - appear entangled in a tango to please the gallery in Washington, which expects Musharraf to play a John Wayne in his tribal belt.
arifhussaini@hotmail.com

 

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