By Syed Arif Hussaini

September 08 , 2006

Balochistan: Shape of Things to Come

For a student of Pakistan affairs, it is but natural to wonder about the fallout of the death of the veteran Balochi leader and chief of Bugti tribe, Nawab Akbar Bugti, in a military operation on August 26, 2006.
Four days after the event, till the time of writing this piece, there is no consensus on the way he was killed. Digging continued day and night to extricate his body from the rubble of the cave he was hiding in and an official spokesman has just informed that workers have reached the body and it would be dug out of the rubble within hours. Subsequently, the body was dug out and quietly buried in the ancestral graveyard of the Bugtis.
The focus of this article is, however, on the repercussions of his death.
Would the current outrage over the “assassination” of the Balochi tribal chief simmer down as expected by the top men in uniform and their civilian supporters, or would it snowball into a national agitation, causing the fall of the government, as desired by the combined opposition parties? Would Akbar Bugti go down in history as a Balochi hero who laid down his life for the betterment of his people, or would he be remembered as a greedy demagogue and a renegade whose prime interest was to feather his own nest, and hang on to his hereditary leadership of Bugti tribe? Given the strategic location of Balochistan, has it become the site of the 21st century’s “Great Game” with China and the US leading their teams and Russia, Iran and India having stakes in it?
Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan, commanding some 43% of the country’s territory but a mere 6% of its population, with the richest natural resources, but with the lowest per capita income. It produces bulk of the natural gas and has mines with large deposits of copper, gold and silver.
Administratively, Balochistan is a nightmare. The British demarcated eighty per cent of the Province as tribal territory to be administered by Sardars. Only the remaining 20 per cent came under civilian administration. The Sardars have adroitly dealt with regime after regime at the federal capital to maintain this system.
The anachronistic system has been challenged by the wind of change that has started blowing through the area with the construction of the Gwadar Port, and new roads and military garrisons to ensure the security of national assets. That is where lies the crux of the clash. The federal authorities say that the natural resources belong to the entire nation, while the tribal Sardars maintain that they belong solely to the Balochis.
To enforce their claim, three militant groups were set up: the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), the Baloch National Army, and the People’s Liberation Army. They are said to have up to 150 training camps and are alleged to have been responsible for 650 bomb blasts in just one year. The BLA has been banned both in Pakistan and in the UK on grounds of being a subversive, terrorist set-up.
As for the first query, whether the current agitation gathers momentum, as planned by the combined opposition parties and cause the fall of the government, it is too early to see clearly the shape of things to come. The agitation is likely to remain confined to Balochistan as it is over the murder of a Balochi leader with a narrow nationalist agenda. If it mushrooms all over the country, it might take the form of a clash between the man in uniform and the one in civilian clothes. In such an event, the army and its subservient political party will have an uphill task in convincing the people of the justification for hanging on to power.
The opposition parties had been looking for a convincing cause to launch a countrywide agitation against the government. The decision of the Supreme Court on the privatization of the Steel Mills provided a plausible issue. The no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister was based on it. However, the killing of Akbar Bugti overtook that.
Conspicuous by its absence is any statement by Benazir, the most vocal opposition leader. While in government, she was often at loggerheads with Sardar Bugti. Then, she must have noticed the indifference of the US authorities towards the Balochistan incident. She is a good Washington watcher who believes that the road to Islamabad lies through Washington.
The biggest assets of the government are the negative records of both Nawaz and Benazir, apart from the fact that no new leader, no new face, with a stirring message has emerged on the horizon.
The achievements, particularly in the economic field, of the present government haven’t yet filtered down to the common people to sway their opinion. Upper echelon of the society, the men in uniform in particular, have mainly benefited from them. Therefore, government efforts at this stage to play up the current or future development projects might boomerang like the Decade of Reforms of President Ayub, White Revolution of the Shah of Iran, or more recently the India Shining slogan of Vajpai government.
Even if there is a countrywide agitation, it might at best cause the change of face in uniform. The General who might take over would promise elections in ninety days – to be extended to years.
As for the second query regarding the role of Sardar Bugti in the history of Pakistan, he is unlikely to sit in the row of the nation’s benefactors. Mr. Bhutto, who made remarkable contributions to the country’s foreign relations, continues to be a controversial figure owing to his deliberate moves to suppress the nouveau riche, the industrial and business community in particular, through nationalization and buttressing at the same time the political clout of the feudal lords. Akbar Bugti was an out-and-out tribal leader. He was a violent figure who is said to have killed his first man at age 12. To revenge the assassination of his son, he is reported to have killed a hundred persons.
He had served as the Governor and Chief Minister of his province but without anything concrete to show for the work he did for his people. Like a true feudal potentate, he kept his people under his heel.
That kind of grueling feudal structure ended centuries back in the world. India absorbed all feudal enclaves, some 600 princely states, into the country’s mainstream soon after independence. One hopes the elimination of Sardar Bugti would mark the beginning of the end of feudalism in Pakistan.
Our last query is whether Balochistan has become the site of the 21st century’s ‘Great Game’. The strategic location of Balochistan holds a special significance for China, Russia, India and the US in the race to control the oil and gas supply from Central Asia.
China has the biggest stake. It has already built Gwadar port and is expanding it to handle cargo ships up to 50,000 tons or more. The port has already been connected to Karachi by a coastal highway. Plans are underway to build a north highway connecting Gwadar to Karakoram Highway (KKH) which is being upgraded to carry heavy truck traffic. On the Chinese side, the KKH is being connected to Russian-built highway network that already connects all the five Central Asian Republics. Once Gwadar port is connected to Kashgar, Western China’s main city, the distance between the two would be 1500 km as against 3,500 km between Kashgar and the Chinese ports on its eastern coast.
Gwadar will thus be the main port to handle the commercial traffic of Western China (Xingxiang/Sinkiang – inhabited mainly by Turkic Muslims) that is being built by China at a cost of $500 billion. Balochistan over the next decade or so will thus change into a thriving, throbbing area instead of the backyard of the country ruled by antediluvian tribal chiefs and warlords. Meanwhile, special efforts and allocations will have to be made to impart requisite education and skills to the youth of the region so that they are enabled to carry out the responsibilities awaiting them.
-arifhussaini@hotmail.com



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