By Syed Arif Hussaini

Nobember 17, 2006

Rumsfeld’s Exit Marks the Beginning of Shift of Course in Iraq

A major shift in the US policy on Iraq has become inevitable with the mid-term elections serving as a referendum on that policy. The electorate’s verdict is clearly against the policy of the Bush administration “to stay the course”. The exit of Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary Defense is no eyewash. Presenting him as the bad face of the war and making him the scapegoat would hardly mollify the people.
The vote was a popular repudiation of an unpopular war. It may be recalled that before it was launched in March 2003, there were unprecedented demonstrations against it throughout the world, notably in Europe. Ignoring the outburst of the anti-war sentiments of the people, the Bush administration invaded Iraq on the ground that it had weapons of mass destruction and was in league with Al Qaeda and that Sadam Hussein was a mounting threat to the US security. Iraq, with an estimated population of around 25 million and already emaciated owing to the UN sanctions imposed on it, was like a humming bird threatening an elephant. No wonder, Sadam took refuge in a ground hole near his home town. But, what the Bush administration could not foresee was the immense resistance that surfaced after the US occupation. The insurgency could not be suppressed despite vast destruction of the infrastructure and deaths of at least 150,000 Iraqis, according to Iraqi official figures,and around 3,000 US soldiers.
The causes belli being open to question, and there being little progress towards achieving the objectives of the war despite the enormous expenditure, and general acceptance of the fact that the use of force had become ineffective, the war had become extremely unpopular among the electorate. Hence the verdict against it at the polls, despite the Bush administration’s insistence on staying the course.
Mr. Bush has graciously acknowledged the defeat and gave the very next day of the election a call for bipartisan cooperation. To pave the way for this, Rumsfeld was made to quit and replaced by Robert Gates who is likely to be acceptable to the Democrats.
John Bolton, US rep at the UN, is next in line. His appointment, in any case, was made by the President while the Congress was in recess. Bolton’s confirmation now is out of question.
Pentagon’s two top Generals who have been dealing with Iraq - Gen. John Abizaid and Gen. George Casey, who is in-charge of the military operations in Iraq - are both expected to be replaced soon. US ambassador in Baghdad, Zalmay Khalilzad, is also likely to be replaced by a more moderate person.
Questions are also being raised about the future of the most significant wielder of power in the administration - Dick Cheney. He is likely to be affected only if the Congress elects to investigate the allegations of corruption in the award of contracts in Iraq. That was one of the issues before the electorate.
Now there is a virtual consensus on the need for a shift in the policy on Iraq. The days of the partisan warfare and gridlock in the Congress are a feature of the past. Both parties are looking for an amicable settlement of the turmoil in Iraq and a graceful pullout of US troops. That is no easy task considering the ground realities in the war theater.
Yet, the situation is not altogether bleak. For, the Iraq Study Group, headed by the former US Secretary of State, James Baker, is already working for evolving a path that could provide a way out of the quagmire acceptable to both the parties. Significantly, Robert Gates, the replacement of Donald Rumsfeld, is a member of this Study Group. He is thus well aware of the intricacies of the situation and would be in a better position to convince the Congress of the validity of the Group’s recommendations.
Mr. Rumsfeld had expended a lot of his time and energy on controlling the powerful Generals and making them carry out the decisions of the civilian bosses. He had often been abrasive in handling the Generals who had developed an unexpressed distaste for his modus operandi. Robert Gates may therefore expect unstinted cooperation of the senior brass and prompt professional advice whenever needed.
It is no secret that Rumsfeld had crossed swords with the US top brass long before Iraq. He was given the task of reasserting civilian authority over the men in uniform. And, he was determined to run the Pentagon instead of being run by it. One is reminded of the role of the military in running the state in Pakistan. Mr. Bhutto’s derogation of Gen. Zia was in no mean measure responsible for sending him to the gallows. One is also reminded of the folly of Mr. Bhutto in increasing the defense allocation three-fold soon after the surrender of Dacca, instead of cutting down the existing allocation considering the loss of half of the country and consequent reduction in the need of defense of the rump state.
There is another analogy. Mr. Rumsfeld’s bickering with the brass had reached a stage where he was likely to be replaced by the President in the interest of harmony. September 11 attacks saved him. Gen. Zia was to hold elections and quit; the invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union saved his Presidency.
The new Defense Secretary, Robert Gates, is said to believe in developing consensus instead of being hawkish and asserting his will. He last served in Washington 13 years ago, as a national security adviser and then Director of CIA. A senior Pentagon official described him as “a pragmatist and a realist” who would be “no lightning rod.” Having served under Presidents Nixon, Ford and Carter, and having handled the CIA operations in Afghanistan, he is quite knowledgeable about Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan. He has publicly questioned in 2004 Bush administration’s approach to Iran. Refusal to talk to Iran, he felt was ultimately self-defeating.
It is but natural for the Pakistani community in the US to wonder about the repercussions of the election outcome on the US-Pakistan relations. The Republicans have always been sympathetic to Pakistan, while the Democrats have favored India on Indo-Pakistan issues. As far the Pakistani community in the US is concerned, the change may augur well for them. For, the new-cons of Bush administration had been tightening the screw on them through the Patriot Act, security procedures and stricter surveillance. With the liberals dominating the Congress, Pakistanis will have reason to breath freer.
As for Pakistan, the pressure on Gen. Musharraf’s government is likely to ease somewhat, as the US administration is likely to seek a dignified pullout from Iraq, and a less hawkish attitude towards Afghanistan too. The battles in both Iraq and Afghanistan are likely to be for the heads and hearts of the people through pacification, rehabilitation, education, health and social development. To be able to achieve these objectives, the current hawkish approach might yield to friendlier gestures.
The aggressive and arrogant stances have generated an intense anti-American sentiment among the people of the region. Growth of extremist groups and Taliban cannot be stemmed through the barrel of the gun. Killing Osama and al-Zawahiri will hardly put an end to the growth of terrorists. Zarqawi’s elimination has not ended the insurgency in Iraq. A diametric shift in US policy is indicated. And, a Congress dominated by the Democrats is likely to exert pressure on the administration to adopt a pragmatic approach towards the opponents abroad. Pakistan should be able to play a significant role in this so far as Afghanistan is concerned. That would be in the interest of Pakistani leadership too. No suicide bombers would have cause to sneak near them.

arifhussaini@hotmail.com

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