January 28 , 2011
The Tunisian Revolution
The January overthrow of the Tunisian dictatorship was a startling and unexpected development in Arab politics. It has made clear to many that the old structures of the Arab world, which seemed so permanent, can collapse in an instant, and this display has struck fear into the hearts of the despots from Morocco to Oman.
Why, after decades of authoritarian rule, did Tunisia rise up in this peaceful and sudden revolt? What happened in 2011 and can we expect similar events in Egypt or Syria or Algeria?
Tunisia is different from the other Arab countries in one important way: it has the largest organic middle class, not one based on oil wealth but on actual production and development of a functioning economy. Tunisia’s per capita income is over 9000 dollars, the highest in the Arab world outside of the Gulf oil states. This meant that there was a large and highly educated middle class, who like middle class citizens the world over, felt entitled to have a say in their government.
Meanwhile, the Tunisian ruling class was not widely dispersed. It was highly concentrated in the extended family of the President and his wife. This meant that the number of people with a strong stake in the status quo was pretty small. When the match was lit by a protestor who burned himself to death, the entire nation was ready to throw out the President. The ground was further prepared by the recent Wikileaks of US diplomatic cables. Within those cables were a number that detailed the outlandish corruption and lavish lifestyle of the Tunisian rulers, which infuriated the ordinary citizen.
The critical question now is: what next? How will Tunisia develop politically? There are plans for free elections in six months, but ominously the new government just shut down one of the major television stations. Will free speech, human rights, and democracy take hold? My tentative guess is that Tunisia will make its way in that direction.
There is a sociological observation that nations with large middle classes are almost always democracies. In terms of prosperity, it seems that per capita income of around 7000 dollars is the cutoff point, and nations above that are able to sustain democratic institutions. That number does not apply to oil states, because their wealth is under the control of the government itself, which uses it to buy off opposition and retain control of the wealth on its own behalf. But outside of them, Tunisia was the only major country that had crossed that economic level and not transitioned to democracy. That discrepancy may now be corrected.
For the Arabs the question is whether Tunisia is a harbinger of things to come, or an exception. For decades the Arab countries have avoided the democratic wave that has swept the rest of the world. Some have taken that to mean that Islam is the main impediment to democracy, but it has not been a hindrance in the major non-Arab Muslim nations like Turkey, Indonesia, or Pakistan. The Tunisian example suggests that even the Arab world will give way to a democratic change. I do not expect a wave of revolution in the near future, but the Tunisian example will be seen as a seminal moment in Arab history 30 years from now. Its importance cannot be underestimated. The next countries that may see a democratic transition may well be Egypt after Mubarak passes, and perhaps Jordan and Libya. Palestine will likely be a democracy, if it can come into being. The harsher police states like Syria and Algeria will hold out longer, as will the oil kingdoms, but once Egypt democratizes, the pull of its example will be hard to resist forever. It is definitely past time for the US to pull the plug on the Mubarak regime, and vigorously support a democratic Egypt. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com
