March 12 , 2010
Palestinians Resume Negotiations
Last week the Palestinians agreed to resume negotiations with Israel on a peace deal. Actually, they still will not negotiate directly with Israel until it stops all settlement building, but they will engage in indirect talks mediated by the US through George Mitchell. What are the chances that any meaningful progress is made?
Israel remains under the control of a right-wing coalition run by Benjamin Netanyahu, a longstanding proponent of the eternal subjugation of the Palestinians. He ran for election to Prime Minister as an opponent of Palestinian statehood back in 1996, and broke with Ariel Sharon over the issue 5 years ago. He has always been committed to settlements and occupation. Under intense pressure by Obama he was forced to mouth the words “ Palestinian State” last year, but his views have not changed one bit.
For the Palestinians, they remain divided between Gaza under the control of Hamas, and the West Bank under the control of the Palestinian Authority and Mahmoud Abbas. While Abbas is willing to make a two-state deal with Israel, Hamas has always opposed that. How effectively can the Palestinians negotiate in these circumstances, and to what extent could any deal actually be implemented with Hamas not in agreement? Clearly, on both the Israeli and Palestinian side there are strong impediments to any progress.
Obama likely holds the key. Only he can bring enough pressure on Israel to offer a serious and fair deal to the Palestinians. And only with his support could Palestinian public opinion and international pressure allow Hamas to climb down from its tough stand and accept a two-state solution.
Why would a right-wing Israeli government engage in serious peace talks? From the Israeli perspective they have the best of all possible worlds. They retain full sovereignty of all the territory in Gaza and the West Bank, but have been able to wall off the Palestinian population into giant ghettos and open-air prisons so they no longer deal with them day to day. Meanwhile the settlements continue to expand, despite the sham “freeze” the Israelis claim to be following. Israel still has the power to enter the home of any Palestinian, seize any of his property, and even take his life whenever and wherever they choose to.
While the situation certainly looks just fine for Israelis, and terrible for the 3.7 million Palestinians, there are structural forces that are moving slowly but strongly against Israel. The status of the Palestinians is increasingly being seen around the world as apartheid, and is generating growing condemnation and calls for boycotts against Israel.
Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority has been slowly putting together the infrastructure of a state. Within the next few years, the situation may be dramatically transformed. A declaration of statehood by the Palestinians, with borders defined by the 1967 lines, will be recognized not just by the 50 or so Muslim countries, but also by the EU, and perhaps Russia and China. Israel will then be sanctioned until it removes itself to the internationally recognized border. Even the full support of the US will not be able to stop this. This is the Israeli nightmare scenario. Even worse for the Israelis is if the two-state solution does not come to pass, within 10 years the Palestinians will be a majority of the population in all of the land west of the Jordan, and may instead demand one state with citizenship and equal rights for all. Israelis have no desire to live in equality with Palestinians. So they are faced with a real dilemma.
For the Palestinians they have three critical issues. The first is how much if any of the West Bank will they give to Israel to allow it to keep settlements. The answer to this should be zero, or very close to it. If Jews want to remain within Palestine as equal citizens they can and should, but if not, they should leave the settlements. The second question is Jerusalem.
The Palestinians should accept no less than the full return of East Jerusalem. In the Old City, Al-Aqsa should be under Palestinian sovereignty, but Israel should be able to keep the Western Wall. Finally, the tough issue of the refugees must be addressed. While they have a clear and legitimate moral right to return to their homes and recover their property from which they were expelled, such a return is not possible if Palestinians want to settle this dispute through negotiations. However, in exchange for forgoing the actual return of refugees, they must receive the entire West Bank, East Jerusalem, and generous compensation so that they can rebuild successful lives in the new Palestine or anywhere else they may end up.
The US and the EU could help solve this problem by agreeing to admit half a million refugees each. Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.
