April 22 , 2011
The Arab Spring Continues
A little more than four months after the Arab revolutions began in Tunisia, the momentum has yet to be broken. While Tunisia and Egypt have had successful overthrows of their entrenched government, the course of events in the last two months have been far more uneven, yet despite harsh repression, the autocrats and dictators have not been able to return things back to “normal”.
The most dramatic events are in Libya, as Gaddafi has plunged his country into a civil war. A few weeks ago it looked as if his tanks and artillery were going to pummel the rebellion, but UN sanctioned intervention, primarily by NATO forces, halted him. At this point an uneasy stalemate has been created, with Gaddafi no longer having the capacity to defeat the rebels in the east, but the rebels themselves too appear weak and disorganized to mount the kind of heavy military assault needed to dislodge Gaddafi.
But it would be safe to predict at this point that Gaddafi is doomed. The US would not tolerate his victory, as that would be a huge embarrassment.
Over the next few weeks, air strikes will gradually degrade his heavy weapons and tanks, while embargoes and restrictions will result in Gaddafi losing the fuel and money he needs to sustain his army in the field. Eventually, it will collapse, in fact once a tipping point is reached, I would imagine that the people of Tripoli will rise up and throw him out as his army deserts. This may take several weeks. Gaddafi and his cronies probably realize all this, and may be looking for a way out. He will demand safe passage to a state that will not turn him over to the International Criminal Court as he will certainly be indicted for war crimes. It may be that Gaddafi ends up being a guest of Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe, or some other African state.
Gaddafi doesn’t want to end up like Mubarak, whose sons are now in prison. Mubarak will join them as soon as he recovers from his heart attack brought on by being interrogated for corruption. Meanwhile, Mubarak’s political party, the NDP, has been dissolved by an Egyptian court. This means that Egypt has fully broken from its Nasserite/Mubarak past and is heading for an electoral democracy. Many big decisions and votes remain ahead, the first will be the Presidential election in September.
While Egypt and Tunisia move toward an open society and democratic change, rebellions have been growing in Yemen and Syria. In Yemen, President Saleh, who has ruled for 30 years, continues to try to hold on in the face of mass demonstrations. But his regime has been fatally undermined at this point. The Yemeni people are going to force him out in the near future. Yemen is a poorer and less developed society than Egypt or Tunisia, and its transition to democracy after Saleh leaves may be much rougher. There is an active Al-Qaeda presence in Yemen that complicates matters, particularly for the US.
The most surprising demonstrations have been in Syria where the harsh Assad regime has maintained firm control for decades. But small demonstrations in a few provincial cities have gradually grown and now have spread to Damascus. As of this writing, Bashar Assad has announced his intent to lift Syria’s Emergency Law that harshly limits human rights and gives the state immense repressive powers. Whether this is merely a cosmetic change, or represents a real opening of the system, remains to be seen. I expect that this is a case of too little, too late, and the demonstrations will continue to build, unless Assad is willing to unleash a bloodbath.
In the Gulf states there has been little turmoil, except for Bahrain, a small island kingdom, where the ruling Sunni monarchy presides over and discriminates against a Shia majority. While the Bahrainis came out in a massive peaceful demonstration, their attempt to change the system has so far been crushed with imported Saudi forces and the blessings of the US.
While the Arab revolutions so far have not threatened the key American and Western interest of keeping the oil flowing, revolutions in the Gulf could convulse the global oil markets and send the world economy back into recession. If Saudi Arabia destabilized, and Saudi oil flow was stopped even for a few weeks, crude oil prices could head to 200 dollars/barrel, and a gallon of gas could hit 8 dollars in the US. Obama, while siding with people in Syria or Libya, is not prepared to do that in the Gulf.
Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.
