By Dr. Nayyer Ali

June 10, 2011

Was Pakistan Helping bin Laden?

 

After the deeply embarrassing turn of events that led to bin Laden’s death in a villa in Pakistan, there has been global speculation about how much responsibility falls on Pakistan for bin Laden’s 10 years on the run. 

For many, it is impossible to believe that bin Laden could have remained hidden in Abbottabad for the last six years without out active help from the Pakistani government.  But what is the truth?

On the face of it, the evidence against Pakistan is fairly compelling.  Bin Laden was hiding quite successfully in a town full of senior military officers, just down the street from a major military academy.  He was living in a large compound, with high walls and barbed wire.  It is known that Pakistan was supporting a number of other militant and extremist groups over the years, including Lashkar e Taiba and the Afghan Taliban.  Bin Laden did not seem too concerned that he would be found by security forces.

But it is not quite so clear-cut.  Although he was hiding in Abbottabad, he certainly did not act like someone enjoying local welcome and immunity.  He never ventured out of the house, nor showed his face through any window.  The house was cut off from the outside with no telephone line or Internet connection.  He communicated via courier and flash drives used to send and receive emails from Internet cafes.  He was clearly taking extreme precautions to hide his presence and identity.

In the last few months before the US attack, the CIA had apparently rented a nearby house to observe and monitor the bin Laden compound.  During that entire period there is no report that Pakistani officials or military officers ventured into the compound, or that any contact was made between the bin Laden couriers who lived there and a Pakistani official.  If Pakistan was actively assisting and hiding bin Laden one would think something like that would have happened.  Since the raid, the US has obtained a treasure of computer files, hard drives, and flash drives and other items that were taken.  If there was any real alliance between bin Laden and Pakistan, there should be some smoking guns in there, but so far there has been none.  In fact, there is one document apparently that hints at a scheme by bin Laden to obtain protection from Pakistan in exchange for a pledge not to attack the country, but this idea went nowhere, and suggests that no alliance actually existed.

Another matter to consider is bin Laden’s own suspicion of any Pakistani official.  How certain could he be of being kept hidden if he revealed himself to the ISI?  Once even a few members of the ISI knew his exact location, leaks would spread the news to a wider circle.  The 25 million dollar price on his head would have been a very strong inducement for someone to turn him in.  If there was knowledge of bin Laden’s hideout in the ISI, it would almost certainly have leaked over the last six years.  Bin Laden would have been very foolish to trust his security to the ISI.  There is certainly no evidence that senior Pakistani military or civilian leaders knew of bin Laden’s whereabouts.  If he had been hidden by Pakistan, the conspiracy would have to have spanned Musharraf and the civilian leaders and the new Chief of Army Staff General Kayani.  All of them would have to know the truth, and be willing to carry on the dangerous game.  All of them would have been well aware that if it became known that Pakistan was hiding bin Laden, the outrage of the US would be extreme, and certainly the entire US aid package and international support would be jeopardized.  It is hard to imagine that this was in fact the case.

So why is there this strong suspicion of Pakistan on the one hand, and the strong denial by Pakistanis on the other?  It comes from the double game that Pakistan has played since 9/11.  Pakistan had no problem going after Al-Qaeda, meaning the foreign jihadi fighters, mostly Arabs and Central Asians, who were brought together by bin Laden to carry out global jihad.  Pakistan has captured or killed hundreds of them, and almost all of the senior Al-Qaeda operatives that have been taken down were tracked down by Pakistan.  The Pakistani military has no use for Al-Qaeda and does not support it or bin Laden.  But when it comes to the Afghan Taliban, it’s a different story.  Pakistan insists on Afghanistan being ruled by a government friendly to Pakistan and hostile to India.  It sees the current government not fitting that bill, and so has continued to support the Taliban in their ongoing attempt to maintain influence in Afghanistan.  This creates a highly contradictory policy of supporting the US mission in Afghanistan while also supporting the Taliban fighting the US.  It also means that Pakistan has dragged its feet on cracking down on Taliban-linked militants within Pakistan, resulting in the tragic events in Swat and Bajaur and South Waziristan over the last 2-3 years, and yet  Pakistan continues to suffer from terrorist violence.  

While Pakistanis distinguished between good militants like the Taliban, and bad militants like Al-Qaeda, to the US it looked like Pakistan was supporting the bad guys, so it must be also supporting bin Laden.

Pakistan was not hiding or helping bin Laden.  But its failure to end militancy, its ongoing support of the Taliban, and its misguided foreign policy are real problems.  Afghanistan will naturally be far more tied to Pakistan than India as a result of culture, geography, and religion resulting in significant economic and transport links that will greatly benefit Pakistan.  The planned Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan gas pipeline is just one example of what is to come.  But it makes no sense to pursue that pipeline while arming and supporting a group that will try to blow itself up on a regular basis.  Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com

PREVIOUSLY

Deflating Japan

Bush’s Axis of Evil

Speaking to Non-Muslims

If Arafat Were Jinnah

The Shape of Things to Come

South Asia Expert Calls for Negotiations on Kashmir

Kashmir After the Cold War

Kashmir Quagmire: How It Started

Kashmir: Where We’ve Been

Make Way for the Euro

Will there Be a Muslim Palestine?

Careful, Careful

Our Growing Community

Pakistan’s Golden Opportunity

Musharraf’s Reform Plans

Pakistan’s Afghan Dilemma

Humanity on the Move

Strategies of America, Pakistan and Benazir

Winners and Losers

America’s Strategy Defang the Fundamentalists

The Noose Tightens

Pakistan in America

Musharraf’s Moment

A Sad Day for America, A Sad Day for Islam

Repeal the Blasphemy Law

Bush’s Stem Cell Compromise

The Depressing Stock Market

An Evening on Human Development

“Benazir” Takes Over in Indonesia

Race Riots in Britain

Global Warming or Just Hot Air?

Milosevic on Trial

Russia’s Collapse

Economic Recovery in Pakistan?

President Khatami’s Re-election

Lifting Sanctions on Pakistan

Israel’s Moral Burden

A Break in the Logjam?

The Second American Century

Pakistan’s Constitution

Dr. Lodhi in Los Angeles

Literacy: The Road Forward

Why Yusuf Can't Read

Literacy: The Glass is Half Full

Blowing Up Buddha

A Truth and Reconciliation Commission for Pakistan

Did You See the Moon?

Cornrows, Ali Khan, and Culture

Will the Children Go To Harvard?

Muslim Political Progress

Information Technology Gets A Boost

Sand and Oil

On Lieberman

Pakistan Builds A Tank

Kashmir in the Nuclear Age

Full Speed Ahead on Privatization

A Muslim France?

Too Much Food

Watching the Election Why Are We Hollywood’s Villains?

A Tyrant Falls

Taliban Victorious

The Walking Whale of Pakistan
The Joy of Air Travel?

The Amazing American Economy
Arafat and Jerusalem

Names For The Children

Population: Too Many or Too Few?

It Does Matter

Aziz Goes For Growth

The Military Government's First Budget

L'Affaire Salam

End Sanctions on Iraq

Third World Democracy

Light Weapons Trade on the Rise

Iran Reforms

Back to the Future

The Saudis and OPEC Mature

How Can We Help Pakistan Develop?

Report Card on Musharraf

IMF Vs Pakistan

A Candid Discussion on Foreign Policy Issues

A Sad Tale of Missed Opportunities

Cold War In Kashmir

Whither Afghanistan?

National Security and Literacy

Pakistan Votes

The People Win

What is an Islamist?

Selling the Crown Jewels

Still Not Government

One Year After the Taliban

Benazir's Folly

Iraq and Oil

Saddam and Iraq - I

Saddam and Iraq - 2

Muslim Democracy

Zakat and Capitalism

Zakat and Capitalism - 2

The Economy Picks Up

The American Military: Power without Limit?

Good Foreign Policy is Good Anti-Terrorism Policy

The Arrest of Khalid Shaikh Mohammad

Bush Takes a Gamble

Bush Attacks

Besieging Baghdad

Darkness in Saddam's Bunker

Piccadilly It Aint Qissa Khani Is Still Qissa Kahani

Ed Asner and Afghanistan's Progress

Bush Delivers a Roadmap

Liberation or Imperialism

The Roadmap

Economic Rebound

Musharraf in Los Angeles

Economic Growth will lead to Democracy

Trapped by Myths and Fantasies

The Surge in Karachi Stocks

Bush's Busted Budget

America's Broken Healthcare

Time to Buy Stocks?

Islam, the State, and Human Rights

30 Years after the Oil Shock

The Future of Oil Wealth

Pakistan, India and Human Development

Pakistan's Eid Present

Iraq, Democracy and Islam

The End of Saddam Hussein

Three Wins for Pakistan

The Islamabad Declaration

Kerry's Big Wins

Repeal Hudood and Blasphemy

Bush's Growing Vulnerability

What Has Aziz Done?

Bits and Pieces

The Growth of India

Chaos in Iraq

Bush Caves in to Sharon

Abuse at Abu Ghraib

Too Harsh, Musharraf

The BJP Loses

What Do the Jihadis Want?

The Pak Economy: Bigger than We Think

Is America Richer than Europe?

Prime Minister Aziz

Unbundling WAPDA

Musharraf's Uniform

Chess Game in Kashmir

Three States, Three Debates

What's Wrong with the Democrats?

Can Elections Bring Peace to Iraq?

Elections in Iraq

Can Generals Yield to Democrats?

IMF Give Pakistan an “A”

Improve Higher Education in Pakistan

A Framework for Reconciliation

Iraq’s Elections By

Privatizing Power

Bullish in Karachi

Palestinians Should Abandon Suicide Bombings

The F-16’s

Bush’s Social Security Plan

Growth and Investment

Patronage Versus Policy

Aziz, the PML, and 2007

Are We Running out of Oil?

Purchasing Power

Economic Progress

Social Progress

PTCL and the Privatization Roller-coaster

Bombing in Britain

The Ummah is Not a Tribe

Is the US Oppressing the Muslims?

Is Iraq Dissolving?

Sharon Retreats

Pakistan and Israel

The Earthquake

The Other Earthquakes

The Battle for the Supreme Court

Pakistan’s Physician Exports

Beginning of the End in Palestine

Intelligent Design and Other Religious Beliefs

Shifting Populations in South Asia

Sharon’s Stroke

Building Dams

Hamas in Charge

Free Elections in 2007

Muslim Perspectives on Zionism

Iraq Falls Apart

Big Successes in Privatization

Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

Global Warming

Dennis Ross on the Middle East

What Makes an Islamic State?

The Iraq War

Strong Growth, Falling Poverty

Buffett and His Billions

Why Peace Is Elusive in the Middle East

How Poor is Poor?

How Poor is Poor?
Pakistan’s Growth Moment

Declare a Palestinian State

The London Bomb Plot

Who Won the Lebanon War?

Iran, Israel, and the Bomb

The Pope’s Speech

Democrats Win!

The Republicans Lick Their Wounds

Finally, Some Enlightened Moderation

The Error in the War on Terror

Economic Challenges for Pakistan

Reshaping the Middle East - Part 1

Reshaping the Middle East - Part Two

The Surge to Defeat

Whither Palestinians?

Pakistan and Afghanistan

Blind to the Future?

Musharraf Goes Too Far

Letter from Lahore

Can Musharraf Escape His Own Trap?

Will Healthcare Swallow the Economy?

Israel’s Surprise Offer

The Economy Surges Again

Al Gore Should Run

Pakistan’s Arms Industry

Any Exit from Iraq?

Deal, No Deal, or Many Deals

Nawaz Comes and Goes

Will Musharraf Wriggle Through?

Can We Stop Global Warming?

Bush’s Sputtering “War on Terror” Loses Again

Mental Health at Guantanamo Bay

What a Mess!

Will Musharraf’s Errors Prove Fatal?

How About Some Good News?

Anyone but Nawaz

China, India, and Pakistan: Whose Citizens Live Best?

Electing the Next President

Benazir’s Tragedy

Pakistan Election

Democracy and Pakistan

False Hopes in Palestine

Dinner with Shaukat Aziz

How Real Were Aziz’s Reforms?

The State of Pakistan

A Real Debate on Iraq

Stop Negotiating

Severe Challenges Face Pakistan’s Economy

Mindless Obsession with Musharraf

After Musharraf, More Musharraf?

Can Obama Do It?

Pakistan’s Poverty Profile

Economic Crisis in Pakistan

Can Obama Beat McCain?

Was the Aziz Boom a Mirage?

Pakistan’s Presidency

The Failed Presidency of George W. Bush

McCain Is Not Finished

The Economic Meltdown

A Year after the Annapolis Peace Conference

The Significance of Obama’s Win

Pakistan’s Economic Challenge

New Finds in Qur’anic History

The Assault on Gaza

Is a Trillion Dollar Stimulus Really Needed?

Bush’s Economic Legacy

How Big a Problem is Global Warming?

The Collapse of Oil Prices

Barack and the Banks

Pakistan Surrenders to the Taliban

The Collapse of the Republicans

Will Debt Defeat Obama?

Will Debt Defeat Obama?

The Torture Debate

Israel and Iran: Tyrants Cling to Power

Healthcare Reform

Is Israel Held to A Higher Standard?

Pak Economy Needs Growth

How to Really Control Health Care Costs

Do Not Attack Iran

Obama Confronts Failure in Afghanistan

Why Does the Islamic World Under-perform?

Final Chance for Palestine?

What Killed the Pak Economy in 2008?

Should Obama Fight Global Warming?

Obama’s Good Start

The Twisted Logic of the Extremists

Should France Ban the Burqa?

Slow Progress in Pakistan

Palestinians Resume Negotiations

The Farce of Islamic Creationism

Obama’s Secret Plan to Raise Taxes

Democratic Steps in Pakistan

Faisal Shahzad and the Taliban

Can Obama Win in Afghanistan?

The Meaning of Israeli Piracy

Annual Economic Survey of Pakistan

Nostalgia for Musharraf

No Good Choices for Netanyahu

The Attacks on Islam

The Trends in American Politics

Immigration Reshaping US and Europe

Pointless Peace Talks with Netanyahu

Another Episode of Military Rule?

Pakistan ’s Misguided Afghan Strategy

The Middle East in Wikileaks

Brazil Recognizes Palestine

Obama’s Tax Deal

Republicans, Tax Cuts, and Bad Math

Pakistan in Chaos

The Tunisian Revolution

The Arabs and Democracy

The Palestinians and Peace

The Arab Spring Continues

Bin Laden is Dead

Can We Go Back to Normal?

Obama and the 1967 Borders for Palestine

Editor: Akhtar M. Faruqui
© 2004 pakistanlink.com . All Rights Reserved.