June 22 ,2012
Bloodbath in Syria
The news from Syria continues to be grim. President Bashir Assad has defied the UN calls for a ceasefire, and continues to use deadly force in an attempt to crush the revolt. So far at least 7000 people have died, the vast majority unarmed civilians killed by security forces and Assad-backed militias.
Some say the toll is over 10,000. If these had all been killed in a few days or weeks, the amount of bloodshed would have outraged the world and brought forth intense pressure for intervention, but Assad has spread out the killing, usually keeping the daily toll in the double-digits. Lately, he has unleashed a savage militia made up of Alawites loyal to the regime who have carried out mass killings of women of children such as the Houla massacre. When the Arab Spring began over a year ago, it achieved success in Tunisia and Egypt relatively peacefully, and even in Libya and Yemen the old leaders were deposed without massive loss of life. What has gone wrong in Syria that Assad has managed to hold on to power by killing thousands?
The fundamental reason is that Syria is a much more divided society than the other nations. Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen have no significant religious minorities, the ethnic Berber in Libya are only a small fraction of the nation and they were not holding power. Even Egypt is much more cohesive with almost everyone an “Egyptian Arab” and outside of the 10% who are Christian the rest are Sunni Muslims. In all of these societies, the old regime had no special ethnic or religious base that was willing to fight to hold power. In Libya, the Gaddafi regime tried to use force, but NATO airpower stopped them and gave the rebels time to gather their strength and undo his regime fairly easily. This was helped immensely by the geography. Libya is close to NATO airbases in Italy, and Libya for all its size, is really a set of coastal cities connected by a coastal highway, likes pearls on a string. The rebels just had to take one pearl at a time till the regime collapsed.
Syria presents a totally different situation. The Assad family comes from a minority Alawite community. The Alawites are a version of Islam mixed with some other ideas; they are quite distinct from the majority Sunni. Some Muslims would question whether the Alawites should even really be considered a form of Islam. Regardless, the Assad family placed the army and security services in the control of Alawites, and the Alawite community as a whole is tightly linked to the regime, though they make up only 12% or so of the population. In addition, another 10% of Syrians are Christians, and there is a Kurdish minority in the northeast; both of these groups are leery of a Sunni-dominated state, and have remained on the sidelines of the civil war. Instead of an Arab Spring in which the entire nation stands up against a dictator, Syria is divided between pro- and anti-Assad factions. The majority Sunni are driving the rebellion, but they do not yet have the support of much of the rest of the country. The Alawites deeply fear what will happen to them if they lose power, and as there are more massacres and gruesome events, the Alawites as a whole will have even more fear of revenge if they give up power.
There was a chance of a peaceful change in Syria a year ago. Now the situation is totally out of control. The West has imposed harsh sanctions on the Syrian government, but Russian and Chinese support at the UN has protected Assad from a firmer response. The Syrian rebels have taken effective control of many small towns and villages, but Damascus and Aleppo remain under Assad’s thumb. They are however creating a military force, raising funds, and getting arms from the Saudis and probably the Turks. The Saudis are supporting Salafist forces among the Sunnis, and this bodes ill for what may come after a Sunni victory.
The Sunni business community tied to the regime has yet to finally abandon Assad, though that may change as Syria’s economy continues to collapse under the weight of sanctions and civil war. Meanwhile, Assad’s legitimacy as a ruler is completely gone. He now only controls Syria through brute force, but he is no longer seen as having any other reason to be President. I do not see how Syria can ever return to “normal” under Assad. This will be a lengthy process, but Assad’s days are numbered. What comes after Assad is hard to predict. Syria is as mangled as Iraq, but lacks the oil money that the government can use to buy loyalty and dampen discord. A post-Assad Syria will be an unstable and uncertain place for a long time.
