July 16, 2010
Nostalgia for Musharraf
As Pakistan sweats through a hot summer with massive load-shedding, and the economy limps along with slow growth, there is the stirring of some nostalgia for the Musharraf years. It wasn’t so bad back then, was it? Not like 2009, when 12,000 Pakistanis died as a result of terrorism and the army’s attempt to fight it. So now that Musharraf has been gone for almost two years, it is reasonable to ask, what was his legacy?
Musharraf’s eight years must be viewed through three different lenses: economic, social, and political. Clearly, the economic legacy must be seen as his great achievement. In 1999 Pakistan was under IMF control, the economy was moribund, and spending on development a mere 100 billion rupees per year. The nation was crushed by a national debt that equaled 100% of GDP, about where Greece is today. Over the next eight years, he cut that debt burden in half, not by paying back loans, but by more than doubling the size of the economy. Brisk GDP growth could be seen in a boom in the industrial sector, which expanded by more than 10% per year for much of the last eight years. There was the great increase in cell phones, from less than a million to almost 80 million. Auto production and sales tripled, and there was huge rise in motorcycles and television sets and air conditioners. A new middle class came into existence alongside the pre-existing rich. Exports doubled while imports tripled. Tax receipts tripled, and the government was able to increase development spending to 500 billion rupees in 2008.
Social changes occurred too that will endure. There was a major expansion of education, and net primary school enrollment jumped sharply, along with large increases in higher education. Literacy rates climbed, while infant mortality dropped and life expectancy rose to 65 years. Press freedom was more apparent during Musharraf’s time than even during the “democratic” 90’s, and the creation of private television channels had a huge impact on the lives of Pakistanis. Women’s participation in society also improved, with Musharraf appointing a female ambassador to the US and to head the State Bank of Pakistan, and with women even entering fighter pilot training. Musharraf also did away with the separate electorates that Zia had instituted for non-Muslim Pakistanis in the National Assembly. One of the biggest changes was reserving 20% of Parliamentary seats for women.
In terms of foreign policy, Musharraf handled Pakistan well during the 9/11 events. Pakistan could have taken a disastrous turn, and I shudder to think what would have happened if Nawaz Sharif had been in power instead. Musharraf tried to sincerely negotiate with India, but the Indians were not interested and there was not much he could do.
Despite the above laudable points, politically Musharraf was a failure. He should have steered Pakistan back into full democracy, and if he had been willing to subject himself to the judgment of the voters, he likely could have won a free election in 2007. But he tried to stack the deck, and his attack on the Supreme Court proved his undoing. The whole nation was outraged by his attempted sacking of the Chief Justice in March of 2007, and when he reversed course, his weakness and crippled position became obvious. But he did redeem himself at the end by allowing a free and fair election and abiding by its outcome. He is paradoxically the only Pakistan ruler to ever accept the voters’ judgment and leave office.
