September 02, 2011
The Fall of Gadhafi
In a stunning advance after six months of civil war, the Libyan rebels stormed into Tripoli and put a stop to 42 years of despotic rule by Muammar Gadhafi. It is a fitting end and creates a solid bloc of democratic revolt across North Africa from Tunisia where it began to Egypt in the heart of the Arab world.
Six months ago the people of Libya rose up to throw off Gadhafi’s rule, but despite widespread initial success, Gadhafi was able to use his thugs and mercenaries to reassert control over most of the western half of Libya and keep Tripoli in his grip. His military forces completely overmatched the unarmed rebellion, and he advanced towards Benghazi in late-March. It was then that the Arab League and the UN authorized a no-fly zone, and approved the use of force to protect civilians. The US and its NATO allies then started an air campaign against Gadhafi that halted the attack on Benghazi and saved the rebels.
Over the next few months, the rebels gradually built up their own military capacity, and were helped by trainers and weapons coming from NATO and other countries ( Qatar actually played a significant role). Air strikes and constant surveillance by American Predator drones slowly but very effectively dismantled Gadhafi’s military power. Gadhafi had never allowed the Libyan military to become a very strong institution, so taking it apart was much easier than would be the case in a nation like Syria. NATO nations even had forward air controllers on the ground with the rebels helping to focus air strikes on important targets. In the last few weeks events came to a head. Berber groups from the Western mountains made a key series of advances that led to capturing the routes out of Tripoli to the south, and then the coastal town Zawiya fell, cutting off Tripoli from supplies of food, fuel, and ammunition from Tunisia. Rebels also were sneaking into Tripoli by boat, bringing fighters and weapons and linking up secretly with resistance within Tripoli. Over the weekend of August 20, the code word was given and a general uprising in Tripoli occurred along with rebel attacks from the outside.
A critical military unit guarding Tripoli defected to the rebels, and with that, Tripoli fell. Saif Al-Islam, Gadhafi’s son who was really running the country for the last few months, was captured and is probably headed for a war crimes trial in The Hague. Gadhafi himself is still in hiding, but his fate is sealed.
Pundits are already wringing their hands about the future of Libya. But I have every reason to be optimistic. Libya is not Iraq, and it is not going to be occupied by a foreign army. It was Libyan blood that freed Libya. Libya is a very different nation than Iraq. It is much smaller, with only about six million people, and it is highly concentrated, with most of the population living in the five largest cities along the coast; Tripoli alone has 1 million. The 400,000 Berbers have a right to be treated fairly in the new Libya, and they will have a seat at the table based on their own prominent role in defeating Gadhafi. But there is no sectarian or ethnic divide that troubled Iraq, and even the issue of “tribes” in Libya is overblown, most Libyans live in cities and tribal identity is not so critical.
The Libyans must now reassert civility, set up an open transition, write a constitution, and get it approved by the people. Libya is blessed with huge oil reserves. It pumped 1.6 millions barrel per day before the war, and that would bring the government about 50 billion dollars per year in revenue. This is plenty of money to transform Libya into a prosperous oil state, if it wasn’t being misspent by Gadhafi. Libya can also rejoin the world community.
The Arab Spring has now had its third major success. But it failed in Bahrain, and it remains in flux in Yemen. In Syria, the regime retains the loyalty of some segments of society, and those groups are willing to kill to stay in power. It is unclear how the Syrian people can get rid of Assad as long as his military power is intact and willing to shoot. But even if the revolts fail in Yemen and Syria, the end of the dictatorship era in the Middle East is clearly unfolding. These regimes have lost all legitimacy and retain power through brute force alone. Eventually, they will collapse.
For Obama, the fall of Gadhafi is a huge success. He helped the Libyan people get their freedom, but he did not do it through a heavy-handed or expensive intervention. It is a striking contrast to Bush’s adventure in Iraq. No Americans died, and the war cost was a few billion dollars at the most.
