By Dr. Nayyer Ali

October 16 , 2009

Obama Confronts Failure in Afghanistan


While Obama is trying hard to wind down the war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan is taking a sharp turn for the worse. What for many years was an afterthought or a forgotten war, has now become a very intense and deadly conflict. Last week a brazen assault by Taliban on a US outpost killed 8 American soldiers.  War costs have escalated to 4 billion dollars per month, and Obama has already upped the US troop commitment to 68,000 soldiers, while additional NATO forces take the total foreign troop presence up to 100,000. Despite that, the situation has markedly deteriorated.  What went wrong?
In 2001, the US won a cheap and easy victory using mostly Northern Alliance proxies combined with US Special Forces and airpower to demolish the Taliban.  But at that point the Taliban were actually trying to hold cities and territory and were willing to stand and fight a conventional war, which resulted in them being pulverized.  After that quick victory the Taliban movement was scattered and demoralized, and a level of peace that Afghanistan had not known since the early 1970’s took hold.  Two million Afghan refugees, many living in camps in Pakistan and Iran, returned home.  Mass immunization programs were initiated, and an impressive expansion of primary schooling took place, including schools for girls.   Afghanistan got a free press, and was able to establish some basic national institutions, including banks, television stations, and a few universities.

 The landlocked and mountainous nation is totally dependent on its road network, and the major ring highway underwent badly needed reconstruction.
But despite these real signs of progress, the Bush administration made a huge error in their basic policy.  Bush needed the army for Iraq, and so Afghanistan was shortchanged, both in terms of soldiers, which were kept to about 10,000, and in terms of reconstruction and development.  What money was spent in Afghanistan was spent on military uses, and the amount assigned to development was trivial.  There was little attention paid to the fact that a real functioning Afghan state was not being created in the years after 9/11. President Karzai was really just the mayor of Kabul.  There was no concerted and dedicated attempt to create a real Afghan army that could secure the country.  The average Afghan, especially outside of Kabul, saw little in the way of meaningful improvement of their lives.  Into this vacuum, the Taliban were able to regroup and reform.   Pakistan, under Musharraf, saw lack of commitment on the part of the US and hedged their bets by allowing the Taliban to reform and regroup in Pakistan as a potential counterweight to an India-allied Northern Alliance-dominated Afghanistan.  
These failures laid the ground for the Taliban to come back.  Obama has had to play catch up.  The US presence in Afghanistan has been ramped up starting last year and now even more so by Obama. But General McChrystal, who is the commander in Afghanistan, is asking for even more soldiers, and has said that he cannot win without them.  On the other hand, there are strong voices in the Democratic Party who are against more soldiers.  The army would only get those soldiers by sending forces currently in Iraq. And the costs would be in the billions every month.  Meanwhile, the Afghan election for President has been a disaster, and is widely seen as having been blatantly rigged to give Karzai an undeserved first round victory.
The real question for Obama is: what would a massive allocation of US soldiers accomplish at this point?  Would anything less than 200,000 troops really allow the US to stamp out the Taliban?  And to what extent can critical US goals be accomplished with a much smaller force?
The time to do Afghanistan right was 8 years ago, when there was overwhelming support from the American people and international credibility.  But back then, the US only put in 8000 soldiers, opium was allowed to flourish, and Karzai was never more than the mayor of Kabul.  Years of neglect allowed a Taliban insurgency to regroup and reform.  To stamp it out now would require another 100k soldiers, which the US doesn’t have and the American people don’t want to send anyway.  There is no way to “win” that does not involve creating a functioning Afghan state, but Afghanistan is so backward and decentralized that to create a real state would be awfully difficult, even if the Taliban didn’t exist.  
If the US wants to deny Al Qaeda a base of operations, they can downsize to a few mobile regiments and use them to destroy any large concentrations of Taliban and hunt Al-Qaeda with helicopter assaults and Predators.  This would be enough to keep them off balance and prevent the Taliban from being able to capture cities.  But with barely functioning and very corrupt state, and an army made up of illiterate conscripts, the raw material of victory just isn’t there.  In Iraq, victory was basically allowing the Shias to take over and forcing the Sunnis to accept the loss of control of Iraq that they fought against for so long.  The Shias also now control the massive resources of an oil state to buy off and co-opt enemies.  No such ethnic strategy is available in Afghanistan because the Taliban are based in the largest ethnic group, the Pashtuns.  All the other ethnic minorities are much smaller in size and cannot act as a counterweight.  
Ultimately, it will only be the slow buildup of education and economic activity that will bring a functioning state to Afghanistan, but that will literally take 25 years.  What to do in the meantime?  The US should stay in Afghanistan but make do with a light long-term presence dedicated to preventing a Taliban takeover of the cities.

Comments can reach me at Nali@socal.rr.com.
PREVIOUSLY

Deflating Japan

Bush’s Axis of Evil

Speaking to Non-Muslims

If Arafat Were Jinnah

The Shape of Things to Come

South Asia Expert Calls for Negotiations on Kashmir

Kashmir After the Cold War

Kashmir Quagmire: How It Started

Kashmir: Where We’ve Been

Make Way for the Euro

Will there Be a Muslim Palestine?

Careful, Careful

Our Growing Community

Pakistan’s Golden Opportunity

Musharraf’s Reform Plans

Pakistan’s Afghan Dilemma

Humanity on the Move

Strategies of America, Pakistan and Benazir

Winners and Losers

America’s Strategy Defang the Fundamentalists

The Noose Tightens

Pakistan in America

Musharraf’s Moment

A Sad Day for America, A Sad Day for Islam

Repeal the Blasphemy Law

Bush’s Stem Cell Compromise

The Depressing Stock Market

An Evening on Human Development

“Benazir” Takes Over in Indonesia

Race Riots in Britain

Global Warming or Just Hot Air?

Milosevic on Trial

Russia’s Collapse

Economic Recovery in Pakistan?

President Khatami’s Re-election

Lifting Sanctions on Pakistan

Israel’s Moral Burden

A Break in the Logjam?

The Second American Century

Pakistan’s Constitution

Dr. Lodhi in Los Angeles

Literacy: The Road Forward

Why Yusuf Can't Read

Literacy: The Glass is Half Full

Blowing Up Buddha

A Truth and Reconciliation Commission for Pakistan

Did You See the Moon?

Cornrows, Ali Khan, and Culture

Will the Children Go To Harvard?

Muslim Political Progress

Information Technology Gets A Boost

Sand and Oil

On Lieberman

Pakistan Builds A Tank

Kashmir in the Nuclear Age

Full Speed Ahead on Privatization

A Muslim France?

Too Much Food

Watching the Election Why Are We Hollywood’s Villains?

A Tyrant Falls

Taliban Victorious

The Walking Whale of Pakistan
The Joy of Air Travel?

The Amazing American Economy
Arafat and Jerusalem

Names For The Children

Population: Too Many or Too Few?

It Does Matter

Aziz Goes For Growth

The Military Government's First Budget

L'Affaire Salam

End Sanctions on Iraq

Third World Democracy

Light Weapons Trade on the Rise

Iran Reforms

Back to the Future

The Saudis and OPEC Mature

How Can We Help Pakistan Develop?

Report Card on Musharraf

IMF Vs Pakistan

A Candid Discussion on Foreign Policy Issues

A Sad Tale of Missed Opportunities

Cold War In Kashmir

Whither Afghanistan?

National Security and Literacy

Pakistan Votes

The People Win

What is an Islamist?

Selling the Crown Jewels

Still Not Government

One Year After the Taliban

Benazir's Folly

Iraq and Oil

Saddam and Iraq - I

Saddam and Iraq - 2

Muslim Democracy

Zakat and Capitalism

Zakat and Capitalism - 2

The Economy Picks Up

The American Military: Power without Limit?

Good Foreign Policy is Good Anti-Terrorism Policy

The Arrest of Khalid Shaikh Mohammad

Bush Takes a Gamble

Bush Attacks

Besieging Baghdad

Darkness in Saddam's Bunker

Piccadilly It Aint Qissa Khani Is Still Qissa Kahani

Ed Asner and Afghanistan's Progress

Bush Delivers a Roadmap

Liberation or Imperialism

The Roadmap

Economic Rebound

Musharraf in Los Angeles

Economic Growth will lead to Democracy

Trapped by Myths and Fantasies

The Surge in Karachi Stocks

Bush's Busted Budget

America's Broken Healthcare

Time to Buy Stocks?

Islam, the State, and Human Rights

30 Years after the Oil Shock

The Future of Oil Wealth

Pakistan, India and Human Development

Pakistan's Eid Present

Iraq, Democracy and Islam

The End of Saddam Hussein

Three Wins for Pakistan

The Islamabad Declaration

Kerry's Big Wins

Repeal Hudood and Blasphemy

Bush's Growing Vulnerability

What Has Aziz Done?

Bits and Pieces

The Growth of India

Chaos in Iraq

Bush Caves in to Sharon

Abuse at Abu Ghraib

Too Harsh, Musharraf

The BJP Loses

What Do the Jihadis Want?

The Pak Economy: Bigger than We Think

Is America Richer than Europe?

Prime Minister Aziz

Unbundling WAPDA

Musharraf's Uniform

Chess Game in Kashmir

Three States, Three Debates

What's Wrong with the Democrats?

Can Elections Bring Peace to Iraq?

Elections in Iraq

Can Generals Yield to Democrats?

IMF Give Pakistan an “A”

Improve Higher Education in Pakistan

A Framework for Reconciliation

Iraq’s Elections By

Privatizing Power

Bullish in Karachi

Palestinians Should Abandon Suicide Bombings

The F-16’s

Bush’s Social Security Plan

Growth and Investment

Patronage Versus Policy

Aziz, the PML, and 2007

Are We Running out of Oil?

Purchasing Power

Economic Progress

Social Progress

PTCL and the Privatization Roller-coaster

Bombing in Britain

The Ummah is Not a Tribe

Is the US Oppressing the Muslims?

Is Iraq Dissolving?

Sharon Retreats

Pakistan and Israel

The Earthquake

The Other Earthquakes

The Battle for the Supreme Court

Pakistan’s Physician Exports

Beginning of the End in Palestine

Intelligent Design and Other Religious Beliefs

Shifting Populations in South Asia

Sharon’s Stroke

Building Dams

Hamas in Charge

Free Elections in 2007

Muslim Perspectives on Zionism

Iraq Falls Apart

Big Successes in Privatization

Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

Global Warming

Dennis Ross on the Middle East

What Makes an Islamic State?

The Iraq War

Strong Growth, Falling Poverty

Buffett and His Billions

Why Peace Is Elusive in the Middle East

How Poor is Poor?

How Poor is Poor?
Pakistan’s Growth Moment

Declare a Palestinian State

The London Bomb Plot

Who Won the Lebanon War?

Iran, Israel, and the Bomb

The Pope’s Speech

Democrats Win!

The Republicans Lick Their Wounds

Finally, Some Enlightened Moderation

The Error in the War on Terror

Economic Challenges for Pakistan

Reshaping the Middle East - Part 1

Reshaping the Middle East - Part Two

The Surge to Defeat

Whither Palestinians?

Pakistan and Afghanistan

Blind to the Future?

Musharraf Goes Too Far

Letter from Lahore

Can Musharraf Escape His Own Trap?

Will Healthcare Swallow the Economy?

Israel’s Surprise Offer

The Economy Surges Again

Al Gore Should Run

Pakistan’s Arms Industry

Any Exit from Iraq?

Deal, No Deal, or Many Deals

Nawaz Comes and Goes

Will Musharraf Wriggle Through?

Can We Stop Global Warming?

Bush’s Sputtering “War on Terror” Loses Again

Mental Health at Guantanamo Bay

What a Mess!

Will Musharraf’s Errors Prove Fatal?

How About Some Good News?

Anyone but Nawaz

China, India, and Pakistan: Whose Citizens Live Best?

Electing the Next President

Benazir’s Tragedy

Pakistan Election

Democracy and Pakistan

False Hopes in Palestine

Dinner with Shaukat Aziz

How Real Were Aziz’s Reforms?

The State of Pakistan

A Real Debate on Iraq

Stop Negotiating

Severe Challenges Face Pakistan’s Economy

Mindless Obsession with Musharraf

After Musharraf, More Musharraf?

Can Obama Do It?

Pakistan’s Poverty Profile

Economic Crisis in Pakistan

Can Obama Beat McCain?

Was the Aziz Boom a Mirage?

Pakistan’s Presidency

The Failed Presidency of George W. Bush

McCain Is Not Finished

The Economic Meltdown

A Year after the Annapolis Peace Conference

The Significance of Obama’s Win

Pakistan’s Economic Challenge

New Finds in Qur’anic History

The Assault on Gaza

Is a Trillion Dollar Stimulus Really Needed?

Bush’s Economic Legacy

How Big a Problem is Global Warming?

The Collapse of Oil Prices

Barack and the Banks

Pakistan Surrenders to the Taliban

The Collapse of the Republicans

Will Debt Defeat Obama?

Will Debt Defeat Obama?

The Torture Debate

Israel and Iran: Tyrants Cling to Power

Healthcare Reform

Is Israel Held to A Higher Standard?

Pak Economy Needs Growth

How to Really Control Health Care Costs

Do Not Attack Iran

Editor: Akhtar M. Faruqui
© 2004 pakistanlink.com . All Rights Reserved.