October 19 ,2012
Obama Flops in First Debate
Obama’s first debate with Mitt Romney was an epic flop on the Presidential debate stage, probably the worst defeat any incumbent President has suffered in that setting. Romney was attacking all night, and often changing long held positions (Romney stated that he was not going to lower the tax burden on wealthy people) or simply denying them when inconvenient (like his false claim that after repealing Obamacare he will still provide insurance for people with preexisting conditions). Obama on the other hand appeared listless, unable to defend his record or articulate his accomplishments, and struck many as not even that interested in still being President. He failed to bring up obvious attack points like Romney’s condescending and disdainful video comments about the 47% of Americans who don’t pay federal income tax, his stashing of his personal wealth in Swiss banks, his position on the auto industry calling for it to go bankrupt back in 2008, his refusal to release his tax returns and explain how he got his IRA to be worth 100 million dollars, or Romney’s apparent desire to go to war with Iran. He did not make much point of how much the economy has turned around in the last two years, that we have created 5 million new private sector jobs, the auto industry was successfully rescued, or that the stock market, and the IRA’s and 401k accounts of many voters, ha d doubled in the last four years. Obama’s failure to stand up for himself and to criticize Romney was hard for many to understand, but the result was obvious: Romney was seen as the winner by 60% to 25% who thought Obama had won. With the debate win Romney saw some strong initial movement in the national polls, and a poll done by Pew even showed Romney ahead nationally by 4 points.
So at this juncture who is ahead? The race has been remarkable for how stable it has been for the last year. While in the summer of 2011 Obama was at a political low point with the debt ceiling showdown with House Republicans, since the start of this year Obama has kept a small but fairly consistent lead over Romney. That opened up a bit after the Democratic National Convention in early September, after which Romney had several bad weeks in a row, and polls showed Obama in a strong but not overwhelming position. With this debate win, Romney has probably brought the race back to where it was before the DNC. So with less than 30 days to go, who should we expect to win?
What matters is not the total votes nationwide, but how the states break down in the Electoral College, and given that, a look at the map shows Obama still holding an edge. Romney has conceded all of the states won by John Kerry in 2004 plus New Mexico, though he is still making some effort in Wisconsin. Those states together put Obama at 251 Electoral votes, leaving him only 19 shy of being President. He can get that from Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa, or by winning one of those and Ohio or Virginia.
Economic news at this late stage is not going to affect the vote. Statistics don’t mean much to average voters, but the general perception that the economy is improving does seem to be registering with voters, which may explain why Obama’s approval ratings have been above 50% in several polls lately. Unemployment has dropped to 7.8% (Reagan won 49 states in 1984 with 7.4% unemployment), the budget deficit came in 200 billion dollars smaller than expected, car sales are at new five-year highs along with the stock market, and home prices are up almost 5% over a year ago.
Finally, Obama may be ahead in cash. He raised a record 181 million dollars in September. Romney has been raising plenty of money too, but unlike Obama, Romney has relied heavily on big dollar donors who have already reached their legal limits and cannot give anymore directly to his campaign or the RNC. Obama has literally 1.8 million small donors who can keep giving 50 or 100 dollars per month and keep his coffers full. If Romney has serious cash problems it could handicap him in the final sprint.
The next several debates will not have the same impact of the first one. The audiences will be smaller, Obama will do better (it would be hard to do worse, unless he was in a coma), and the arguments will be repetitive.
Given the map there are really 8 states that will decide this election. I do not think New Mexico or Wisconsin is reachable for Romney. First there are the four big swing states in the East, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio. Romney must win all four to have a chance of winning this election. If Obama can hold any of those, he will be reelected. But even if Romney wins all of them, Obama still has a narrow path to victory through the four small swing states - New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. If he loses all four big states, he still wins the election by winning all four of the small ones. He is in a strong position to win New Hampshire and Nevada, but Iowa and Colorado are very close.
For Romney he must obviously do the converse. He has to win the four big states and pick off Iowa or Colorado to win the election.
