By Dr. Nayyer Ali

November 03 , 2017

Population Boom


For the first time in 20 years, and 10 years after it should have been performed, Pakistan carried out a census. This allowed the government to finally determine what the total population had become as it had relied on assumptions about births and deaths since the last census. According to the most recent estimates, Pakistan was supposed to have a total population of 195 million. When the census data was reported, the real number turned out to be 207 million, up from 132 million in 1998.
In 1947, the population of West Pakistan was about 35 million. In the 70 years since then it has grown six-fold. This dramatic population increase has held back the pace of economic and social development as the country was constantly playing catch-up with the population. India and Bangladesh have also had significant population growth since independence, but they have only grown four-fold, as both countries have done a much better job of reducing birthrates.
The critical number that determines the pace at which the population grows is the TFR, or Total Fertility Rate. This is the average number of childbirths per woman in the country during their lifetime. For a modern population to replace itself, it needs a TFR of about 2.1. The TFR in pre-modern societies was very high, 6-8 births per woman, but most of those children would die before reaching adulthood. In the last century, as basic public health measures became widely available in even the poorest countries, death rates fell rapidly, while birthrates remained high for generations. It was this that created the population explosion of the last century, as global totals rose from 1.5 billion in 1900 to over 7 billion people today.
But in every society a point occurred at which birthrates too began to fall. As parents realized that their children were more likely to survive, they didn’t need to have so many. Also, as education spread, particularly to women, and as people moved from farms to cities, birthrates also declined. This happened first in Europe and the US, but now has taken place all over the globe. There remains however a big difference among Third World countries.
Nations like China and Iran have TFR’s below 2, while many African countries still have TFR’s of 4-5 or even higher. India and Bangladesh have TFRs close to 2.2. Pakistan is in-between. Its TFR is still around 3, which has fueled its faster population growth. The main reason why TFR in Pakistan is higher than Bangladesh is that the Pakistani government has failed to make family planning programs accessible to the entire population, including the rural poor. The more educated urban population has access to family planning, but there are too many Pakistani families that do without, and end up with more children than they actually want to have.
Even if the TFR could be brought down to 2.1 in less than a decade, it would not stop the population from growing. That’s because there are many more younger Pakistanis than older ones. So even if the current young generation merely replaces itself, the total population continues to grow as the older ones who are dying off are much smaller in number. For example, there are about 5 million Pakistani newborns this year, but less than a million aged 60.
The UN projects that given this, and making reasonable assumptions about the decline in fertility over the next few decades, Pakistan’s population will grow to 350 million before it levels off towards the end of the century. That will mean a ten-fold increase since 1947, and Pakistan will be among the five largest countries in the world, behind India, China, Nigeria, and the US.
Despite the challenges of its rapidly growing population, Pakistan has made major progress in improving the lives of its citizens. Using the national poverty benchmark of 3,000 rupees per month per person (or 15,000 rupees per month for a family of 5), poverty dropped from 65% of the country in 2000 to 30% today. Using the international benchmark of extreme poverty, which is less than 1.90 dollar per day per person, Pakistan only has 6% of its people living in extreme poverty. This compares with about 20% for both India and Bangladesh.
This rapid rise in living standards can also be seen in the diets of Pakistanis. Meat was a luxury two generations ago. But since 2000, annual per capita meat consumption has exploded from 12 kilograms to 32 kilograms, and is projected to rise to 47 kg by 2020. That will be about half of the per capita meat consumption in the US, but still reflects a much richer diet than Pakistanis enjoyed a few decades ago.
In certain ways Pakistan has done better than India in providing a decent life for the majority of its citizens. The social oppression of India towards Dalits, Muslims, and lower-caste Hindus exerts a very negative toll. But Pakistan should be doing much better. The government needs to expand education to all children, family planning services to all parents, and health care to drive down the unacceptably high infant mortality and maternal mortality rates that plague the country. Until such time, no Pakistani government deserves to be considered a success.

PREVIOUSLY

Three States, Three Debates

What's Wrong with the Democrats?

Can Elections Bring Peace to Iraq?

Elections in Iraq

Can Generals Yield to Democrats?

IMF Give Pakistan an “A”

Improve Higher Education in Pakistan

A Framework for Reconciliation

Iraq’s Elections By

Privatizing Power

Bullish in Karachi

Palestinians Should Abandon Suicide Bombings

The F-16’s

Bush’s Social Security Plan

Growth and Investment

Patronage Versus Policy

Aziz, the PML, and 2007

Are We Running out of Oil?

Purchasing Power

Economic Progress

Social Progress

PTCL and the Privatization Roller-coaster

Bombing in Britain

The Ummah is Not a Tribe

Is the US Oppressing the Muslims?

Is Iraq Dissolving?

Sharon Retreats

Pakistan and Israel

The Earthquake

The Other Earthquakes

The Battle for the Supreme Court

Pakistan’s Physician Exports

Beginning of the End in Palestine

Intelligent Design and Other Religious Beliefs

Shifting Populations in South Asia

Sharon’s Stroke

Building Dams

Hamas in Charge

Free Elections in 2007

Muslim Perspectives on Zionism

Iraq Falls Apart

Big Successes in Privatization

Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

Global Warming

Dennis Ross on the Middle East

What Makes an Islamic State?

The Iraq War

Strong Growth, Falling Poverty

Buffett and His Billions

Why Peace Is Elusive in the Middle East

How Poor is Poor?

How Poor is Poor?
Pakistan’s Growth Moment

Declare a Palestinian State

The London Bomb Plot

Who Won the Lebanon War?

Iran, Israel, and the Bomb

The Pope’s Speech

Democrats Win!

The Republicans Lick Their Wounds

Finally, Some Enlightened Moderation

The Error in the War on Terror

Economic Challenges for Pakistan

Reshaping the Middle East - Part 1

Reshaping the Middle East - Part Two

The Surge to Defeat

Whither Palestinians?

Pakistan and Afghanistan

Blind to the Future?

Musharraf Goes Too Far

Letter from Lahore

Can Musharraf Escape His Own Trap?

Will Healthcare Swallow the Economy?

Israel’s Surprise Offer

The Economy Surges Again

Al Gore Should Run

Pakistan’s Arms Industry

Any Exit from Iraq?

Deal, No Deal, or Many Deals

Nawaz Comes and Goes

Will Musharraf Wriggle Through?

Can We Stop Global Warming?

Bush’s Sputtering “War on Terror” Loses Again

Mental Health at Guantanamo Bay

What a Mess!

Will Musharraf’s Errors Prove Fatal?

How About Some Good News?

Anyone but Nawaz

China, India, and Pakistan: Whose Citizens Live Best?

Electing the Next President

Benazir’s Tragedy

Pakistan Election

Democracy and Pakistan

False Hopes in Palestine

Dinner with Shaukat Aziz

How Real Were Aziz’s Reforms?

The State of Pakistan

A Real Debate on Iraq

Stop Negotiating

Severe Challenges Face Pakistan’s Economy

Mindless Obsession with Musharraf

After Musharraf, More Musharraf?

Can Obama Do It?

Pakistan’s Poverty Profile

Economic Crisis in Pakistan

Can Obama Beat McCain?

Was the Aziz Boom a Mirage?

Pakistan’s Presidency

The Failed Presidency of George W. Bush

McCain Is Not Finished

The Economic Meltdown

A Year after the Annapolis Peace Conference

The Significance of Obama’s Win

Pakistan’s Economic Challenge

New Finds in Qur’anic History

The Assault on Gaza

Is a Trillion Dollar Stimulus Really Needed?

Bush’s Economic Legacy

How Big a Problem is Global Warming?

The Collapse of Oil Prices

Barack and the Banks

Pakistan Surrenders to the Taliban

The Collapse of the Republicans

Will Debt Defeat Obama?

Will Debt Defeat Obama?

The Torture Debate

Israel and Iran: Tyrants Cling to Power

Healthcare Reform

Is Israel Held to A Higher Standard?

Pak Economy Needs Growth

How to Really Control Health Care Costs

Do Not Attack Iran

Obama Confronts Failure in Afghanistan

Why Does the Islamic World Under-perform?

Final Chance for Palestine?

What Killed the Pak Economy in 2008?

Should Obama Fight Global Warming?

Obama’s Good Start

The Twisted Logic of the Extremists

Should France Ban the Burqa?

Slow Progress in Pakistan

Palestinians Resume Negotiations

The Farce of Islamic Creationism

Obama’s Secret Plan to Raise Taxes

Democratic Steps in Pakistan

Faisal Shahzad and the Taliban

Can Obama Win in Afghanistan?

The Meaning of Israeli Piracy

Annual Economic Survey of Pakistan

Nostalgia for Musharraf

No Good Choices for Netanyahu

The Attacks on Islam

The Trends in American Politics

Immigration Reshaping US and Europe

Pointless Peace Talks with Netanyahu

Another Episode of Military Rule?

Pakistan ’s Misguided Afghan Strategy

The Middle East in Wikileaks

Brazil Recognizes Palestine

Obama’s Tax Deal

Republicans, Tax Cuts, and Bad Math

Pakistan in Chaos

The Tunisian Revolution

The Arabs and Democracy

The Palestinians and Peace

The Arab Spring Continues

Bin Laden is Dead

Can We Go Back to Normal?

Obama and the 1967 Borders for Palestine

Was Pakistan Helping bin Laden?

Can the American Economy Be Fixed?

Pakistan’s Weak Economy

The Fall of Gadhafi

America Has a Jobs Crisis, Not a Debt Crisis

Ten Years after 9/11

The State of Palestine

The Failure of Pakistan’s Afghan Policy

The Failure of Pakistan’s Afghan Policy

Will Obama Win or Lose in 2012?

The Meaning of ‘Occupy Wall Street’

100,000 Rally for Imran Khan

Don’t Worry, America Is Not Italy

The Failure of Pakistan’s Afghan Policy

Newt Invents Palestine

Operation Iraqi Freedom Ends

Obama's Many Paths to Victory

Islam’s Not So Bloody Borders

Can We Stop Global Warming?

The Supreme Court Worries about Broccoli

The Coming Republican Meltdown

The Endless Republican Depression

The Demise of the Euro

Mending US-Pakistan Relations

Acid Throwers in Pakistan

Bloodbath in Syria

Obama Wins Big on Health Care

Romney, Obama, Virginia and Iowa

1.6 Billion Muslims

A White House Iftar

Transforming Saudi Arabia

A Romney Loss Will Crush the Republicans

The Historical Roots of Modern Jihad

Obama Flops in First Debate

Obama and Romney Go Down to the Wire

The End of the Southern Strategy

Occupation Is the Problem

The Republicans Have a Problem with White People

Obama Halves the Deficit

Has the Arab Spring Failed?

Ten Years Ago Bush Destroyed Iraq and His Presidency

How Much Longer for Assad?

Terror in Boston

The Economy Comes Back

Third Chance for Nawaz Sharif

Third Chance for Nawaz Sharif

Immigration Reform Moves Forward

The Fall of the Muslim Brotherhood

The Receding Threat of Global Warming

Still Seeking a Palestinian State

The Republicans' Desperate Shutdown

Was Thomas Jefferson A Muslim?

Time to Raise the Minimum Wage

I nequality and Islam

Israel and Palestine

How Poor is Pakistan?

The Collapse of Iraq

Bill Maher’s Islamophobia

Obama’s Puzzling Unpopularity

Obama’s Nuclear Weapon

Defeating ISIS

Pakistan Must Return to the Vision of Jinnah

Maher Hathout: A Tribute

I Am Not Charlie

Obama Strikes a Deal with Iran

Assad Barely Hangs On

China Invests in Pakistan

The Future of Islam

Obama Makes a Deal with Iran

Obama Fights Global Warming


Editor: Akhtar M. Faruqui
© 2004 pakistanlink.com . All Rights Reserved.