Babur's Perfect
Timing
By Dr Shireen M Mazari
The successful testing of Pakistan's
first cruise missile, Babur (Hatf VII), has come
at a most appropriate time, on many counts. First,
coming in the wake of the Indo-US ten-year defense
agreement and the Indo-US nuclear agreement, it
sends a signal that Pakistan is prepared to counter
the US transfer of ballistic missile defense (BMD)
systems to India.
Second, even though more needs to be done, the psychological
impact of the Pakistani test is tremendous, both
at home and abroad. Within Pakistan's domestic milieu,
the successful Babur test will restore confidence
that the government of Pakistan is going to sustain
its nuclear deterrence, even if it means raising
the level of deterrence to a higher arms level.
The US decision to equip India with BMD had undermined
our commitment to nuclear restraint and minimum
nuclear deterrence, especially since India had already
acquired some of these systems, including the Israeli
Phalcon system and some Russian aerial platforms.
It was clear that Pakistan would, at the very least,
need to acquire more warheads and missiles to counter
the Indian BMD. Now, the development of the cruise
missile, with an initial range of 500 kilometers,
is a welcome bolster for the credibility of our
nuclear deterrence. The cruise missile is an amazing
weapon system, not only because of its ability to
evade radar detection but also because of its precision
in terms of a very low circular error probability
(CEP).
Again, within the domestic context, there have been
concerns regarding our nuclear intent in the face
of our going the extra mile in terms of cooperation
with the IAEA on the centrifuge and Dr Khan issues,
and in the face of claims made by American commentators
in books such as America's Secret Wars, which had
seen no counter from the Pakistani side. The testing
of the cruise missile does go some way in reassuring
us that we are intent on sustaining and strengthening
our nuclear capability.
However, the US factor in the context of our nuclear
capability will always be a major issue of concern
especially with the US having delinked India's nuclear
status from that of Pakistan. With India effectively
having been recognized by the US as a nuclear weapon
state, with a right to separate its nuclear weapon
facilities from its civilian facilities, in terms
of international safeguards, Pakistan will now be
treated differently on the nuclear issue -- with
continuing pressures and sanctions.
Already US allies like Britain have altered their
posture on nuclear cooperation with India -- despite
earlier statements to the contrary. Although the
news reports have stated that Britain will ease
nuclear curbs on both Pakistan and India, the British
Foreign Office spokesman only referred to India
when he stated that the British government has notified
Parliament about important changes in its laws relating
to the dual-use nuclear technologies to India. As
he was quoted: "We will be again opening doors
to Indian nuclear scientists and research organizations,
academics and nuclear industry officials to come
to the UK.... India is a key international partner
in the UK's efforts to work towards a world safer
from global terrorism and weapons of mass destruction."
No such cooperation has been cited for Pakistan.
Instead, for us there have only been tirades with
Mr. Blair and the British media indulging in a blame
game with Pakistan, in the aftermath of the acts
of terror carried out in London on July 7 and the
foiled attempts later in that month.
Which is why the cruise test also carries a significant
message to the international community. It shows
Pakistan's intent and capability to sustain a credible
nuclear deterrent. It also sends a message that
if the US is hell-bent on undermining deterrence
at a minimal level in South Asia through upsetting
of the strategic balance, then Pakistan is capable
of meeting the challenge and restoring the balance
through its indigenous scientific resources. India
should also take note of this.
Mercifully, we have not been hoodwinked into believing
that a few old F-16s would be compensation enough
in the face of the massive US military bolstering
of India. I say "mercifully" because our
national dignity demanded that we tell the US to
keep the two old refurbished F-16s, which we are
going to get with much fanfare in December! It really
is an insult to us as a nation with a competent
indigenous nuclear deterrence capability. According
to one of my retired PAF fighter pilot friends,
these old refurbished F-16s are merely "sophisticated
junk". But the head honcho sitting in Scherezade
Hotel is smitten by personal calls from Ms Rice,
so we should just be grateful that we have not gone
overboard in hyping the impending arrival of these
old planes!
With the British and Norwegians simply ignoring
their proliferation role vis-a-vis Israel, we are
now entering an era where the global nonproliferation
agenda has been all but destroyed by the American
recognition of India as a nuclear weapon power.
Instead, what we are going to see is the targeting
of specific countries and their nuclear programs.
The IAEA has already passed a resolution against
Iran's resumption of uranium conversion. This before
Iran has undertaken any renewal of its enrichment
program. At the moment it has simply decided to
convert yellow cake into UF 4 (hexafouride 4), which
is a few stages away from uranium enrichment. And
all these activities are allowed under the NPT,
with many European NPT signatories, along with Japan,
indulging in these activities, so as to have complete
control over their nuclear fuel cycles. But it seems
that Iran cannot carry out an NPT-permitted activity,
despite the fact that the latest IAEA resolution
declared that in 2004 the IAEA found that "all
the declared nuclear material had been accounted
for, and that such material had not been diverted
to prohibited activities."
But Iran is seen as part of the "axis of evil"
so it cannot be allowed its NPT rights like other
signatories. US efforts to push the issue to the
UNSC did not work, which should be a relief for
Pakistan since it could also be a victim of such
a development at a later time --now that the US
has de-hyphenated nuclear India from a nuclear Pakistan.
In fact, it should be a source of concern for us
that the media campaign against Pakistan continues
unabated in the US. From the sublime to the ridiculous,
we are the villains all around and are condemned,
as a national collectivity, to being evil. As if
to prove this point, a Hollywood producer is going
to make a film showing Pakistani terrorists out
to kill the US President! Given the proclivity of
US presidents historically, to get killed by their
own countrymen, there hardly appears to be any rationality
but we are now fair game to be abused at will. So
we should stop trying so hard to sell ourselves
in a mode that the West is not prepared to buy and
focus more on strengthening our own polity and its
indigenous resources. The cruise test was a step
in this welcome direction.
(The writer is Director General of the Institute
of Strategic Studies in Islamabad. Courtesy The
News)
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