Our Own Worst
Enemy
By Dr Shireen
M Mazari
It is truly amazing
how cavalier our ruling elite can be on the sensitive
nuclear issue. We had the Information Minister linking
Dr A. Q. Khan to the sale of centrifuges to Iran,
even though Iran, to date, has not named either
Dr Khan or Pakistan in this connection to the IAEA.
They have simply stated that they interacted with
people in the UAE who seemed South Asian in origin
(and we know of the Indian scientists linked to
Iran). This is very different from the Libyans,
who clearly mentioned Pakistan. So why we would
choose to drag ourselves in on the Iran issue is
inexplicable.
Perhaps that is why the Prime Minister tried to
undo some of the harm by stating that the Information
Minister had been misquoted. But the latter would
have none of it and came out with another declaration,
that he had only stated what had been said in the
foreign press and by foreign governments. So what
was the harm?
Plenty. Because foreign conjectures and media reports
are different from a government spokesman stating
the same thing. Coming from the government’s
minister, what has so far been conjecture in the
media here and abroad gains credibility -- the proof,
as it were. Surely, this much should be evident
to any rational person! Worse still, while it placed
Iran in a more difficult situation in the short
run, it will certainly harm Pakistan in the long
term -- in terms of further pressure on access to
our nuclear assets. Of course, we have resisted
such pressure in the past, but must we always be
placed in a position of having to sustain unnecessary
pressure? Look at the Indians. Fissile material
goes missing in their country, their scientists
are blacklisted for links with Iran, and they silence
the whole issue. Their government representatives
do not make any statements at all and their media
cooperates.
The timing of the centrifuge controversy is also
interesting, comes as it does close to the visit
of Condoleezza Rice to Pakistan and India.
The Information Minister’s statements also
coincided -- if it was a mere coincidence -- with
Reuters report by Louis Charbonneau datelined Vienna,
according to which Pakistan is going to give nuclear
parts, in the form of old centrifuge components,
to the IAEA for the Iran probe. The source for this
information were unnamed diplomats “familiar
with a UN investigation of Iran’s nuclear
program.” According to the story, one diplomat
said, “Pakistan’s change of heart was
partly a response to US pressure.”
Luckily, Pakistan’s Foreign Office has categorically
denied this story, but why would this come up now?
Deliberately to undermine Pakistan’s military
leadership. We have seen how the US administration
and its legislators -- the latest being Senator
Lugar -- continue to sustain the impression that
President Musharraf is vulnerable because of the
strong anti-Americanism in Pakistan, and so the
US must bolster him. This is nonsensical, because
President Musharraf does have substantial support
within Pakistan, even though suspicion of US intent
remains.
Floating a story about Pakistan giving its centrifuges
to the UN inspectors or the IAEA clearly creates
doubts within the country about our resolve to protect
our nuclear assets. After all, the centrifuges would
also supply information about Pakistan’s nuclear
development and program. Even at a tactical level,
given that they would be transported by air, who
would ensure that they were not tampered with during
the transportation -- simply to cook up evidence
that the US sought? So it is just as well that the
Foreign Office has strongly denied this news item
because the truth will be out in any case. If the
centrifuges were actually to be sent to the inspectors,
as the story alleges, then it will become public
knowledge through UN reports and so on. Charbonneau
is known to have good sources within the foreign
diplomats at the IAEA in Vienna, so the Pakistani
government should demand that the IAEA clarify this
issue in order for the rumors to be put to rest
definitely.
A third related news item also reared its head at
the same time as the centrifuge one. This was the
story on the Congressional Research Services Report
on nuclear risk reduction measures for Pakistan
and India. This report apparently states that according
to some media reports the US has been providing
assistance to Pakistan to keep its weapons safe,
but adds that these media reports could not be confirmed.
Whatever the case, Pakistan’s nuclear assets
are a focal point of US policy interests and could
well become a source for future punitive action,
as happened in the past with nuclear-related sanctions.
So, what is on the US agenda these days in terms
of punitive actions? Clearly, to up the ante against
Iran in this region, along with putting Syria under
pressure. After all, this will undermine Hizbollah’s
strength in Lebanon and Palestine and allow the
US to push through an Israel-designed settlement
on the beleaguered Palestinian Authority.
Iran’s own status will be determined later,
probably since the US has chosen to allow the EU-IAEA
dialogue with Iran to continue in terms of seeking
a solution to the nuclear issue in that country.
However, the nuclear issue continues to cast its
shadow over Pakistan because of our own machinations
which allow others to make statements and assumptions
and get away with it. Denials from our side seem
to increasingly suffer from a credibility gap because
our political elite speak with so many varied voices.
Why is it not possible for statements on sensitive
issues to be the domain of one ministry and its
spokesman? On foreign relations and the nuclear
issue surely this should be the Foreign Office or
the Defense Ministry? Why must every politician
feel the need to hold forth on the nuclear issue,
and especially its technical aspects? If there are
questions, why can’t there be in-camera briefings
for the legislators so that they are taken into
confidence.
This is a critical time for our region and we need
to speak with greater circumspection and in unison
on sensitive issues. Ms Rice’s visit is not
simply a “getting-to-know” visit, given
that she has been one of the architects of Bush
Jr’s aggressive and unilateralist foreign
policy. With the US militarily and politically on
the aggressive from Iraq to Syria to Palestine-Israel
to Iran, Rice’s statements in connection with
our region should be a warning signal. She had expressed
US concern over the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline
-- a project on which Pakistan has staked a lot.
She now comes in person to do more “persuasion”
on this count. Our leadership has worked hard to
convince India on the viability of the pipeline.
How far will India go in the face of US opposition?
More important, will we be able to resist and maintain
our national interest? After all, we have stated
that we will go for the pipeline even if India does
not come along on board. Now, our statements on
this issue will signal our credibility on the sensitive
nuclear issue also. And we really must stop being
our own worst enemy.
(The writer is Director General of the Institute
of Strategic Studies, Islamabad. Courtesy The News)
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