Parting
Ways for Good?
By Arif Jamal
The situation in Jammu and Kashmir
is slowly but surely becoming messier. In the foreseeable
future it may become difficult to gauge as to who
is pulling whose strings there. Pakistan has lost
friends in Jammu and Kashmir in the last few years.
However, the most important friend Pakistan has
lost, or is in the process of losing, is Syed Ali
Shah Geelani who once called himself a proud Pakistani.
Geelani has been more critical of Pakistani policies
in recent months than of the Indian acts in Jammu
and Kashmir. His first tangible criticism of the
Pakistani policies came in the form of his boycott
of the dinner hosted by the Pakistani high commissioner
in New Delhi on the Pakistan Day this year. Since
then he has not stopped criticizing Pakistani policies.
Geelani's latest statement has only added to the
existing confusion -- he has reportedly said that
a conspiracy has been hatched to kill him. He told
a gathering of loyalists in Srinagar that he might
be killed because he is still insisting on the implementation
of the UN resolutions in Jammu and Kashmir. In the
same speech, he nominated Mohammad Ashraf Sehrai,
Ghulam Nabi Sumji, and Masarat Alim as his successors,
which gave the impression that he is sure of the
plan -- though Geelani has stopped short of pointing
out who exactly is behind the conspiracy to kill
him.
Pakistan has certainly changed its tactics, if not
its strategy, to resolve the Kashmir dispute. It
has clearly abandoned its insistence on the implementation
of the UN resolutions in Jammu and Kashmir -- it
is now asking for a negotiated settlement. Pakistan
is no more laying claim on the entire state. Although
it is not yet ready to recognize the LoC as an international
border, it appears to be ready for the division
of the state. It has also considerably reduced its
support to militants fighting in Kashmir over the
last few years and appears ready to adopt some other
means to keep the issue alive till its final resolution.
Some people, particularly those who were beneficiaries
of the ongoing militancy, find it difficult to accept
it. Geelani was certainly one of the biggest beneficiaries
of the ongoing militancy in Jammu and Kashmir.
It appears that there is no place for hardliners
such as Geelani in the new scheme of things. Pakistan
is set to play the new political game according
to new rules. Islamabad is now betting on new horses
in Kashmir. It now wants the two factions of the
Huriyyat Conference to be united again, with possibly
Mirwaiz Umar Farooq heading the united alliance.
Geelani may be given the ceremonial office of Sarprast
(patron-in-chief).
Significantly, General Musharraf seemed to point
to this course when he said in New Delhi that Mirwaiz
Umar Farooq, Omar Abdullah, and Mehbooba Mufti would
play important roles in the future. Sensing the
coming change, the Jamaat-i-Islami of Jammu and
Kashmir once again withdrew its support to Geelani
and his Huriyyat Conference. This has once again
pushed Geelani into political wilderness and made
him bitter.
It seems Pakistan and Geelani are parting ways for
good. The latest statement of Geelani reflects his
bitterness and disillusionment with Pakistan. He
may disagree with the popular interpretation of
his statement but it appears he is blaming Pakistan
for the conspiracy to assassinate him. He always
blamed India for 14 failed attempts on his life
in the past but never described his insistence on
the implementation of the UN resolutions as the
reason. India has never shown any respect for these
resolutions, but the feeling is that if it wanted
to assassinate Geelani, it would have done so long
ago.
Geelani has also tried to dramatize the nomination
of his political successors. In reality, he had
already named the same politicians as his political
successors in the past. Moreover, the mujahideen
circles have also been discussing, for some time
now, the question of his successor in view of his
failing health. In an interview given in February
and published in March 2005, Geelani had nominated
Mohammad Ashraf Sehrai and Ghulam Nabi Sumji as
his possible political successors, saying his health
was not good. The announcement of the nomination
of his successors in the current context of has
only dramatized the whole situation.
Geelani has himself conveyed the impression that
he and Pakistan have parted ways on the question
of Kashmir. He has been openly opposing most of
Pakistan's policies on the Kashmir question for
some time now. The latest statement is a continuation
of his statements in recent months. Pakistan may
be adopting a reconciliatory posture towards him
but he is not ready to forgive his former benefactor.
The time for parting of ways is fast approaching.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
