India Locks
into US Agenda
By Dr Shireen M. Mazari
The intimacy of the
Indo-US strategic partnership was shown up most
clearly at the IAEA, with India casting a vote in
favor of the EU 3-sponsored and US-backed resolution
on Iran. This resolution effectively opens the way
for taking the Iranian case to the UN Security Council.
Interestingly, till this vote, India had been in
the forefront of decrying US attempts to take the
Iranian nuclear case to the Security Council --
and there is in existence a formal nuclear cooperation
agreement between India and Iran also. But US legislators
had made it clear that the principle of “either
you are with us or against us” still held
and India should fall in line behind the US on the
Iran nuclear issue if it wanted to see its own nuclear
deal with the US go through Congress. So, undoubtedly,
in its national interest, India did a complete somersault
at the IAEA. A much less powerful Pakistan managed
to hold its ground and abstained, but then we do
not have anything as lucrative as the Indo-US nuclear
and defense agreements at stake!
Whatever the compulsions now on India, clearly it
is going to be difficult for India to go through
with the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project. The
US has already made its opposition to this known
to both Pakistan and India. However, again, for
Pakistan there is little to be gained by going along
with the US on this issue. For India, the case is
entirely different since it is now the strategic
partner of the US in this region and will therefore
be implementing the US strategic agenda -- which
one assumes is in sync with the new Indian global
ambitions.
For those who still hope India will adopt its own
strategic policies and not go along with the US
agendas in this region, the IAEA vote should set
them straight about Indian intent. What Pakistan
must do is to ensure that if India backs out of
the pipeline project, it is not able to find a face
saving escape route, especially in terms of the
security pretext. As for Pakistan, we have too much
to lose not only economically, but also strategically
if we do not go along with this project.
Meanwhile, the Indo-US strategic relationship continues
to be operationalised at the military level. The
latest reflection of this is the joint naval exercises
that commenced on Sunday, September 25 in the Northern
Arabian Sea. Termed the Malabar-05 exercise, this
is the biggest nine-day long joint naval exercise
between the two strategic partners. Apart from aircraft
carriers and early warning aircraft the exercise
will include submarines also. According to Rear
Admiral DK Joshi, the Assistant Chief of the Indian
Naval Staff, the exercise will involve simulated
air strikes, air defense and other tactical operations.
The idea is to focus on counter-terrorism operations
as well as “anti-sea piracy and to streamline
interoperability.”
While the US military holds joint exercises with
many of its allies, the nature of the exercises
and the terrain where they take place is significant
in the case of India. After all, these naval exercises
send a message to the countries along the Gulf and
Indian Ocean signaling Indian interests that now
seem to be reaching out into the Indian Ocean from
the Red Sea to the Malacca Straits. And there is
already an Indo-US agreement for the joint patrolling
of this area, which controls the energy flows to
South and East Asia. Iran needs to take note of
this because it signals a new Indian approach to
Iran - as a US military partner. For Pakistan also,
there is a veiled threat in this and if one links
this up with the Indian covert actions coming across
from its consulates in Jalalabad and Kandahar in
Afghanistan as well as from Zahidan in Iran, one
can understand a little better the problems relating
to Balochistan and especially Gwadar -- notwithstanding
the local politico-economic factors that provide
fertile opportunities in the first place.
Equally important is the fact that India is also
a partner of the US in the Proliferation Security
Initiative (PSI). This is one of the many “coalitions
of the willing” whereby the US and its allies
have anointed to themselves the right to contravene
the Law of the Sea and halt ships on the high seas
on the merest hint of suspicion that they may be
carrying some components of WMD or other threatening
cargo. They have also given themselves a similar
right for international airspace. Now we all know
what destruction a mere hint of suspicion can result
in -- as happened in Iraq.
Nor is it just Indo-US naval exercises that have
a special strategic significance. There have been
Indo-US military exercises in Occupied Kashmir also
which certainly confronts Pakistan with a threat
multiplier and obviously China was also being sent
a strong message. So Indo-US exercises go beyond
the traditional exercises that the US holds with
countries like Pakistan --- where the intent normally
is to see the preparedness of the latter in certain
threat situations as well as to ascertain the war
doctrines.
Coming in the wake of the IAEA’s Iran resolution,
the Malabar-05 exercises have an added symbolic
importance for Iran and Pakistan -- as well as China.
The message emanating from India is clear: That
it will go along with US strategic goals in this
region, be it targeting the Iranian nuclear program
or containing China. For Pakistan, the US has made
it clear that the Indo-US military and nuclear alliance
is at a different strategic level from the tactical
cooperation with Pakistan on the counter-terrorism
war.
Equally important, we need to factor in this strategic
partnership when examining the Indian demand for
access to the land route into Afghanistan and beyond.
It is not merely an economic issue anymore but a
politico-military one in terms of giving India and
the US military space -- both overt and covert in
that region through our land route. What will be
the long-term costs for us in what could become
an encirclement of Pakistan by India on the Western
and Eastern borders as well as in the Arabian Sea?
How will we reconcile our military cooperation with
the US in the face of the ongoing strategic military
relationship between the US and India? Will what
we share militarily with the US, be shared by the
US with India -- either deliberately or inadvertently?
And how will our national interest in evolving a
long-term understanding with our critical neighbor
Iran be compromised by the Indo-US partnership and
our relationship with the US?
At the very least, our strategic milieu has become
more complex and our threat calculations have to
factor in the long-term implications of the Indo-US
defense and nuclear agreements and their strategic
partnership. The US may have de-hyphenated its India
relationship from its relationship with Pakistan,
but for Pakistan this has only aggravated the impact
of the US-India cooperation in terms of security
parameters. Now we cannot de-hyphenate our relationship
with the US from our relationship with India.
(The writer is Director General of the Institute
of Strategic Studies, Islamabad. Courtesy News)
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