Beyond the ABC
of Politics: AMA Focus on Critical Analysis and
Strategy Building
By Bushra Ahmad
University of California, Berkeley
CA
Led by the American Muslim Alliance
(AMA), the Bay Area Muslim activists are applying
a new approach to influence key races. Stepping
beyond the conventional steps of voter registration
and voter education, they are engaging in critical
analysis of voting patterns aimed at strategic coalition-building.
Although Richard Pombo won the primary election
held on June 6, 2006, this does not mean that he
cannot be defeated. If one looks at the individual
candidates running in the eleventh district, one
sees that Pombo cannot be defeated. Yet, if a coalition
framework is adopted, it appears that Pombo may
easily be defeated.
In the 2004 election, Republican candidate Richard
Pombo received 61.3 percent of the vote while Democratic
candidate Jerry McNerney received 38.7 percent of
the vote. Because of Pombo’s negative image
due to his stance on civil liberties and immigration,
his support has gradually declined as those who
previously voted for him are looking for an alternative.
These issues are of utmost concern to Muslim and
Latino members. With Latinos and Muslims constituting
a significant number in the eleventh district, both
groups have realized that they can influence the
outcome of the election. Muslims are creating a
coalition with Latinos by joining hands in order
to help elect a progressive candidate.
According to the district wide primary election
held on June 6, 2006, Republican incumbent Richard
W. Pombo took the lead with 31,459 votes while the
other candidates collectively received 60,572 votes.
Although Pombo received slightly over one-third
of the district’s votes with 34.2 percent,
the coalition received 65.8 percent of the vote.
AMA researchers have determined that there is an
implicit majority that needs to be mobilized through
a broad-based coalition.
Source: American Muslim Alliance
Because the 11th Congressional District favors Republicans
with a seven percentage point party registration
advantage, Democrat candidates have recognized that
it is a vital time to build coalitions with different
communities in order to maximize votes. By analyzing
the demographics of each county in the 11th district,
one is able to see how such coalitions could benefit
election results.
According to research by the American Muslim Alliance,
Latinos constitute a significant portion of the
eleventh district. In Alameda County, 7.2 percent
of Dublin has a Latino population while 13.5 percent
of Pleasanton has a Latino population. In Contra
Costa County, Latinos constitute 4.7 percent of
Danville and 7.9 percent of San Ramon. In Santa
Clara County, Latinos are 53.8 percent of Gilroy’s
population and 27.5 percent of Morgan Hill’s
population. In San Joaquin County, Latinos consist
of 27.1 percent in Lodi, 25.1 percent in Manteca,
32.5 percent in Stockton, and 27.7 percent in Tracy.
At a recent meeting jointly organized by the American
Muslim Alliance (AMA) and the Mexican American Political
Association (MAPA) attended by Democratic Nominee
Jerry McNerney, the AMA research staff pointed out
the following facts:
Latino votes for the primary election illustrate
the power that coalition building may achieve. In
the primary election in Alameda, Pombo received
26.6 percent while the coalition received 73.3 percent.
For Contra Costa, Pombo received 31.4 percent while
the coalition received 68.6 percent. In Santa Clara,
while Pombo received 22.4 percent of the vote, the
coalition received 77.6 percent. In San Joaquin
County, the primary election gave Pombo 39.1 percent
of the vote and the coalition obtained 60.9 percent,
thus, indicating that Latino voters have the possibility
of swinging this election.
With the number of registered voters being 350,833,
of which 37.15 percent are Democrats, 43.66 percent
are Republicans, and 19.2 percent are Independents,
it is possible to achieve a shift in voters. In
order to gain over 50 percent of the vote for a
Democratic candidate, a Democrat needs to receive
all of the Democrat votes (37.15 percent of registered
voters), half of the independent votes (9.6 percent
of registered voters), and ten percent of the Republican
vote. All the Democrat votes of registered voters
would amount to 130,332 votes while fifty percent
of 67,318 registered Independents would achieve
33,659 votes. In order to obtain ten percent of
the 153,183 Republican votes, 15,318 Republican
votes would be needed. Thus, a total of 179,309
votes are needed from a total of 350,833 registered
voters.
Muslim activists have pointed out that one key factor
that could help Democratic candidate Jerry McNerney
with his race is that Latinos constitute almost
24 percent of the district. With the total Latino
population being 23.8 percent of the 11th District,
Latinos constitute 20.6 percent of Alameda County’s
population, 20.6 percent of Contra Costa County,
33.9 percent of San Joaquin County, and 34.7 percent
of Santa Clara County’s population.
Muslims have made Democratic candidates aware of
the importance of recognizing their coalition and
illustrating that Latinos are a vital source in
gaining more votes. They have illustrated that Democratic
candidates must be aware of Muslim and Latino concerns,
such as their stance on immigration. If candidates
are able to guarantee the support from such a coalition,
then ultimately it may enable them to achieve victory
in the 11th district.
Source: American Muslim Alliance.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
