Fault Lines
for 2007
By Dr Shireen M Mazari
As 2006 comes to a
close, the dye has already been cast for the major
conflicts that will dominate the New Year. Just
when one thought the US and its obedient ally Britain
had finally realized the realities on the ground
in Middle East and West Asia, and had seen the wisdom
of dialogue instead of the use of force, we find
both Bush and Blair going back to their war rhetoric
-- especially in terms of dealing with Iran. So
one will see a growing divide between the US and
UK on the one hand and Iran, Syria and other Muslim
states on the other -- with the Europeans and the
Arab states facing increasing dilemmas in terms
of alliances with the US and against Iran.
Although Blair, on his recent visit to the Middle
East talked about an "alliance of moderation"
involving the Arab states -- many undemocratic --
against Iran, such an alliance will be highly destabilizing
for the Gulf and Middle East region and the states
therein, in terms of domestic polities. For the
Gulf Arab states, a major drawback in seeking a
more independent strategic policy is the heavy presence
of US and allied forces on their territories. In
the coming years, these forces may turn out to be
a major source of strategic threat rather than the
presumed security.
As for Iran, the UNSC resolution against its nuclear
program has only limited validity even as it undermines
the credibility of the UNSC itself. After all, with
the Israeli Prime Minister himself having admitted
to Israel's nuclear status, it would have been far
more credible to have had a resolution dealing with
the nuclear issue in the Middle East in its entirety.
In this connection, Pakistan's reiteration of its
intent to continue its non-nuclear trade with Iran
has been a welcome move, especially in terms of
assertion of national priorities in external policies.
It is now critical for Pakistan to take advantage
of Iran's suggestion for a trade corridor for Pakistan
through Iran into Central Asia, and for Iran through
Pakistan into China. India has already realized
the potential such a corridor could offer it and
has sought to push itself into this plan but given
its recent omission of Pakistan from the new trading
bloc it has initiated in the region -- the BIMST-EC
--- it is time Pakistan excluded India from economic
corridors between Iran and China.
There is a pattern that is now becoming more entrenched
in terms of global politics. There is a system premised
on core states (primarily Israel, UK, India, Japan
and Australia, with some European states being co-opted
as required), around the sole super power, and these
states will tend to use coalitions of the willing
outside of the UN structure when multilateral action
is intended. NATO will also increasingly be an alternate
to the UN's blue berets as it seeks to expand its
operational milieu. A sign of the undermining of
the UN blue berets was reflected in the Congo recently
when the Europeans sent in their forces under a
UN mandate but not under a UN Command, while developing
states like Pakistan sent in their military contingent
under UN command. While this development went unnoticed,
it should have been given more attention for this
is the new pattern of global relations emerging
--- a pattern which will see the gradual irrelevancy
of the UN system unless the international community,
outside of the US and its allies, is prepared to
act forcefully.
As for the Muslim World, it seems it will continue
to remain divided along sectarian and ethnic faultlines,
which will keep it weak and ineffectual despite
its very real power potential. With Iraq continuing
to move towards total anarchy, it serves the interests
of the US to keep the antagonism between the Gulf
Arab states and Iran from diluting. A regional strategic
initiative in the form of a strategic dialogue between
the GCC and Iran would alter the dynamics of the
region in a positive fashion, but such a move would
be a long-term challenge to US interests and primacy
in the region.
At the same time, it is becoming ever more clear
that Muslims will come under increasing attack in
terms of their social and religious traditions in
non-Muslim states, especially in Europe -- where
the marginalization of Muslim populations will continue.
Yet there is potential to alter these scenarios
if the Muslim World becomes more assertive and more
accommodating of diversities within. There is an
increasing relevancy for a more expansive elaboration
of enlightened moderation within the OIC context.
For Pakistan and some of the other larger and assertive
Muslim states, a note of caution in the coming year
should be the very real threat of efforts by the
US and its allies to redraw borders to cut Muslim
states "down to size". There is a pattern
in the writings coming out from analysts in the
US and UK, critiquing states like Pakistan and offering
alternate maps. These writers are not from the fringe
but from the Establishments of these states and
their writings are appearing in the defense publications
of the US and UK.
In fact, in terms of strategic interests, Pakistan
needs to take a long hard look at what is happening.
There is the continuing belligerent rhetoric coming
out of the Karzai government and from some members
of the US legislature, as well as the US media.
Clearly a justification for hot pursuit into Pakistan
is being sought as well as an attempt to lay the
grounds for a more prolonged intervention by NATO
into Pakistan's tribal belt. This cannot be acceptable
for Pakistan and it is time the government began
building the fence along the international border
with Afghanistan. There is a need to review our
Afghan policy and look at this neighbor within a
framework of historical facts -- rather than an
emotive framework of Islamic brotherhood!
While Pakistan should develop a cooperative relationship
with this land-locked neighbor, some red lines should
be clear including the non-acceptance of the growing
Indian interventions in Afghanistan at multiple
levels.
As for India, 2007 will continue to see the same
games being played by the Indian establishment in
terms of conflict resolution and, having proposed
ample initiatives to India, perhaps we should now
wait until India is ready to make serious moves
towards resolving the Kashmir dispute outside of
the Indian Constitution.
Finally, by now it should be abundantly clear that
despite all our confessionals and publicizing of
our export controls, our nuclear program will continue
to sit uneasily with the West simply because we
are a Muslim state. So it is time to stop wasting
resources on such efforts and continue building
up our deterrence capabilities. And we should seek
an alternate strategic framework based on regional
dynamics, in 2007, because the Indo-US strategic
partnership is a direct security threat to Pakistan.
Let us also put national interests before all brotherhood
sentiments and other interests --- with the priority
being to develop a strong civil society, where everyone
is a stakeholder. After all, it is the man in the
street that is imbued with a lasting national commitment,
while the elite continue to seek alternatives to
the green passport even as they exploit this wonderful
nation.
(The writer is director general of the Institute
of Strategic Studies in Islamabad. Courtesy The
News)
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