Fitting the
Ominous Pieces Together
By Shireen M Mazari
The Pakistan-US relationship
is revealing its inherent dialectic at an almost
spiraling pace. Almost everyday, the US fires a
new salvo against Pakistan which has the latter
coming out with damage control statements -- which
are increasingly becoming meaningless given the
almost immediate contradiction in terms of US actions
along the international Pakistan-Afghanistan border
accompanied by statements from Washington.
There is a growing seriousness to the way in which
various events are linking up and the pattern could
not be clearer. Many of us had been predicting the
possibility of an US ingress into Pakistan with
the latter's nuclear assets being the long-term
target. Also, with US military journals suggesting
the redrawing of the borders of the larger Muslim
states, Pakistan needs to realize that its tremendous
contribution to the war on terror notwithstanding,
it would come under increasing US fire and pressure.
That is what is now beginning to happen.
By first identifying recent developments, one can
then trace out some increasingly obvious patterns.
Amongst the important recent developments are:
*The introduction of bills before the US Congress,
making aid to Pakistan conditional upon US presidential
waivers/certifications on a whole set of issues
ranging from nuclear proliferation, terrorism and
secularism.
*Following this, US defense officials' statements
before the US Congress in which they have claimed
that the US has all the authority it needs to indulge
in hot pursuit into Pakistani territory. Despite
claims to the contrary by the hapless Pakistan Foreign
Office, the US has asserted this right by indulging
in such actions, including bombing Pakistani territory
with all the collateral damage that ensues, and
killing or kidnapping Pakistani citizens with impunity.
As some of us have been reiterating, for Pakistan
verbal claims to the contrary have lost all credibility
and it will have to take some symbolic punitive
action against all ingresses across the international
border into its territory to put to rest US claims
of rights over our sovereign territory.
*Even more threatening has been the response to
this claim by some US Congressmen who are seeking
to advise their government to strike even further
into Pakistani territory to attack "munitions'
factories". Of course this could be an open-ended
action against our strategic assets.
*Then there are US efforts to poison the Pakistan-Iran
relationship, to not only undermine the pipeline
project but also to destroy any strategic understanding
that may evolve between these two important Muslim
states. This is an important policy goal for the
US, which is also seeking to destabilize Iran covertly
through support for the separatist Iranian Baloch
movement based in London. The recent spate of terrorist
attacks in Sistan (Iranian Balochistan) are part
of this covert operation and has led to suspicions
in Iran that Pakistan may be allowing the US access
for such a nefarious design. While this is totally
incorrect, unfortunately perceptions can sometimes
create a false reality, which has a dangerous multiplier
effect. Iran needs to realize that Pakistan has
its own problems vis-a-vis the BLA and the US, since
the latter, most questionably, has refused so far
to declare the former a terrorist organization despite
Britain having done so. Interestingly enough, the
EU has also not done the needful and Pakistan needs
to question US and EU long-term intent towards Pakistan.
*The stationing of US naval strike forces in close
proximity to Pakistan's coastal waters and commercial
routes -- again a form of pressure through a threat
of use of force which such positioning implies.
* There is also the "coincidental" EU
action aimed at undermining Pakistan's trade by
closing access to EU markets through a refusal to
sign an FTA with Pakistan while seeking one with
India. The timing is certainly interesting.
* Finally, there is the use of Pakistani writers,
along with US and European media persons, to orchestrate
the imagined links that still prevail between religious
extremists and segments of the Pakistan military!
This, of course, not only bolsters suspicions about
the Pakistan military abroad, it also seeks to create
cleavages between the military and civil society
in Pakistan, as well as within the military itself.
It is in this context that one can view the recent
international and now Pakistani launch of Zahid
Hussain's book "Frontline Pakistan". To
create credibility it was first feted in Britain
-- since we still maintain a colonial hang-up in
terms of giving more credence to all things foreign.
The usual commentators praised the work -- Seymour
Hersh and Ahmed Rashid, the doyenne of the West
in terms of his histrionics about Talibanisation
and Islamic extremism. One had hoped that Zahid
would rise above his desire to play to the Western
gallery, but it seems the temptations are simply
too great.
Despite claims to the contrary, the book shows little
signs of serious research and relies a great deal
on his earlier columns. Since he is unable to identify
most of his crucial "exclusive interviews",
one cannot be blamed for assuming that many of these
may be figments of his own imagination since the
book is full of contradictions. He cannot decide
whether to praise President Musharraf for being
a "moderate and pragmatic" man who took
on the extremists, or condemn him as being a "doyen
of the jihadists and their allies". In fact,
this contradiction regarding his assessment of President
Musharraf runs right through the book as does his
confusion over whether there is an imminent threat
or not to Pakistan from the extremists. Some absurdities
also abound such as a claim that people in shalwar
kameez stand out as Pakistanis in Jalalabad! The
book has many such contradictions and factual confusions,
but that will not matter to the Western audience
which is the prime target for the book. Unfortunately,
like some others in this land, as Ayaz Amir pointed
out last week, in our rush to curry favor with the
US and Europe we pay scant regard to intellectual
honesty. After all, we can disagree on the notion
of national interest, but let us be honest to ourselves
at least.
So one can see the pattern that is being enforced
by the US and its allies within and outside of Pakistan:
Discredit and pressure Pakistan on all fronts -–
including undermining its relations with Iran -–
while fomenting dissent from within through Pakistani
sources. That is why there is a growing confluence
between statements and actions coming out of Washington,
US forces and from Europe -– and what is actually
happening on the ground in the triangle of Pakistan-Iran-Afghanistan.
What is the desired end result? To undermine Pakistan
politically and militarily within the region, and
eventually target its strategic assets, so as to
create a permanently compliant Pakistani state which
allows the targeting of other powerful Muslim states
of this region. Pakistan has always been seen as
a spoiler by the West because of its commitment
to Muslim causes and its self-belief and innate
confidence that it matters -– regardless of
the problems that may beset it at any given time.
That is why we were able to achieve our nuclear
capability –- against all odds. That is not
acceptable to the US and its allies in the emerging
global environment. So the increasingly overt threats
and negative policies targeting Pakistan even while
the latter is expected to continue being the frontline
state in the war on terror.
(The writer is director general of the Institute
of Strategic Studies in Islamabad. Courtesy The
News)
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