The Democrats Are All the Same
By Nayyer Ali MD
The field of Democrats running for President keeps expanding. From Senators to Governors to Congressmen to even mayors, over a dozen Democrats have already announced their intent to be elected President next year. The only major candidate who has yet to commit is former Vice-President Joe Biden, and he is clearly about to announce his desire to run.
Why are so many Democrats pursuing the White House? There are two large reasons. First, unlike in 2016 when Hillary Clinton dominated the Democratic Party and its establishment, there is no clear front-runner that can scare off the competition. The nomination is wide open, and given that the last two Democratic nominees were a woman and an African-American, and a Jewish-American finished second in 2016 (Bernie Sanders), it has made clear that everyone is a viable candidate and not just white males.
The second reason is that Donald Trump is an exceedingly weak incumbent. Normally, unless the economy is in severe recession, it is hard to beat an incumbent President seeking re-election. It has only happened in 1992 with George HW Bush, in 1980 with Jimmy Carter, and in 1932 with Herbert Hoover. All three were presiding over contracting economies. While the economy currently is in the middle of a long expansion since the summer of 2009, it is possible it could slow down by 2020. But for now, it is still growing at a modest rate, and public opinion is favorable on the economy
For Trump, this has not saved him. He remains around 40-42% approval, and those are terrible numbers for a President. He is underwater in every state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and is also in bad shape in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and even Ohio. He is also slightly underwater in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Arizona, and is barely tied in places like Texas, Montana, and Georgia. This is an awful landscape and for Democrats suggest he can be beaten by a good candidate that the Republicans cannot make toxic to the American people.
At this early stage of the campaign, the three best positioned candidates would be Joe Biden, Senator Kamala Harris, and Congressman Beto O’Rourke. Behind them would be Bernie Sanders and the rest are probably not going to be serious candidates in the end as they will have a hard time getting enough money and air time to build support in the critical early states.
Biden will benefit from being Obama’s Vice-President and his name recognition. He also appeals to the working class White voters that swung to support Trump in 2016 over Clinton, giving him critical wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Biden’s main drawback is being 76 years old, making him the oldest person to be President if he wins.
Kamala Harris entered the Senate in 2014 from California after serving as California Attorney General. Her appeal is primarily demographic as she is a woman and African-American. Being from California could also be a major plus because California will be voting earlier in the cycle just after the first couple of small states. A big win in California could give her hard to beat momentum. Harris would be a great candidate to energize women and minority voters for the Democrats.
The last major candidate is Beto O’Rourke, who served three terms as a Congressman from El Paso, Texas. His claim to fame is that he came extremely close last November to beating Ted Cruz in the Texas Senate race, in a state in which no Democrat has won anything since 1994. He offered a very charismatic and young vision of a Democrat, being only 46, and his oratory is very positive and inspiring to Democrats. This enthusiasm was confirmed when his campaign raised over 6 million dollars online from individual donors in the first 24 hours after announcing his candidacy. I would keep a close eye on Beto O’Rourke in the next 12 months. O’Rourke could win over working class Whites across the country, put Texas in play, and bring out a strong youth vote. He is fluent in Spanish which may help him with Latino voters across the country too.
The knock on Beto, and on several other Democratic candidates, is that he is charismatic, but what does he stand for that makes him better than the other choices? I think that is the wrong question. The question is which reasonably good candidate for President makes the best messenger for the Democratic Party and gives the Democrats the best chance to win over Trump and to win the Senate back. Without both, it will be impossible to pass meaningful legislation.
There really is no need for detailed policy proposals, and few voters are going to vote based on those sorts of nuances. To a huge degree, there is a policy consensus in the Democratic Party that extends from the moderates to the progressive wing. The differences are mostly stylistic and rhetorical rather than truly substantive. The top five items in the Democratic agenda are the top five items of all the candidates. They are immigration reform, advancing clean energy, making college affordable, expanding Medicare and health insurance for all Americans, and raising the minimum wage. In the end what will matter is not what details each candidate puts forth in various debates, but what the moderate wing of Democratic Senators will agree to in 2021.
This is why getting the Senate back is so critical. The Democrats have 47 seats but will likely lose the seat in Alabama that was won in a special election in 2017. They need therefore to win four seats. They have good opportunities in Arizona, North Carolina, Maine, and Colorado. They could, with a good candidate and a landslide win in the Presidential race, also pick up seats in Iowa, Georgia, and Texas.
The Democratic primary campaign is getting started almost a year before the first ballots will be cast in New Hampshire. For now, we will be treated to cable TV interviews and lots of online fundraising. Much can shake things up, but the three to watch are Biden, Harris, and Beto.
