Will Arab-Israelis Break Netanyahu?
By Nayyer Ali MD
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s racist right-wing Prime Minister, who has held the post for over a decade, shockingly lost the recent election. This was a repeat of the April election where no right-wing government could be formed due to divisions between secular and religious parties. This time, Arab-Israelis came out and voted in larger numbers, and won 13 seats in the 120 seat Knesset.
Israel has a parliamentary system in which smaller parties win lots of seats, so all governments are coalitions of the right-wing or left-wing parties. The left actually has collapsed since the Second Intifada in the early 2000’s, so there is now really a right-wing and a more centrist major party. Netanyahu heads Likud, but he governs by getting a number of religious and secular smaller parties to join him. This right wing coalition finally broke up in April when Avigdor Lieberman, the head of “Yisrael Beitenu”, refused to govern with the religious parties. He represents mostly immigrants from Russia who are very secular, and he wants an end to a number of special privileges that the religious parties get for their Orthodox members, especially the exemption from military service. Without Lieberman, Netanyahu has no path to 61 seats in the Knesset.
In the recent election, Likud actually finished second with 33 seats, two less than Benny Gantz and his centrist “Blue and White” party. But when all the right-wing parties are considered, Netanyahu has at most 55 seats. Gantz on the other hand has only 44 seats after adding in all the smaller liberal parties. Lieberman has 8 seats but refuses to join Netanyahu if that means accepting the religious parties and their demands. This leaves 13 seats not spoken for.
Those 13 seats belong to the “Joint List” made up of a unity slate of four small parties that represent Arab-Israelis. They make up 20% of Israel’s population, but have always played a very marginal role in its politics. They have never been accepted as a coalition partner in government by any Jewish party.
In an historic break with the past, the Joint List has endorsed Benny Gantz for Prime Minister. This is not because Gantz has promised to do anything to ease the discrimination against Israeli-Arabs, or to end the occupation of the 5 million Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Instead, it is primarily to block Netanyahu from becoming Prime Minister again. With support from the Joint List, the centrist coalition would have 57 votes. It still does not have enough to form a government.
The situation therefore remains uncertain. The Israeli President, who normally fills a purely ceremonial role, gets to pick which party gets first attempt to form a government. With the support of the Joint List, this should mean Gantz will have the opportunity. He needs 4 more votes. He will try to bring on Lieberman, though Lieberman will not sit in a government that has Arabs in its coalition. The other option is to link up with one of the smaller religious parties. They could be tempted to come on board. A final option would be to form what is called a minority government, where the Joint List does not officially become part of government but votes with the government to keep it in power.
Lieberman is encouraging a different option. He wants Gantz and Netanyahu to form a unity government which would include his party, which would then have 76 seats. But Gantz refuses to do so unless the Likud dump Netanyahu as their leader. That is unlikely to happen but not impossible.
Regardless of what happens, the role of Arab-Israelis in Israeli society is going to grow even more. If they voted in proportion to their share of the population, they would have 25 seats, and it would be almost impossible to form a government without them. They are already the third largest party in the Knesset. For Israeli Jews, a moment of reckoning is soon going to be upon them. Even if they persist in subjugating the occupied Palestinians, they are going to have to come to terms with the large non-Jewish minority that are Israeli citizens. These people will make ever more pressing demands for full equality and integration into society and government. This is going to reshape what till now has seen itself as “the Jewish state”. For now, they may have ended the political career of Israel’s longest serving Prime Minister.
