Britain and Brexit
By Nayyer Ali MD
Ever since a narrow win for Leave in the Brexit referendum in 2016, British governance has been paralyzed by the problem of how to actually achieve Brexit. Originally, the idea was that Britain would leave the European Union after a detailed agreement was signed by both sides and that ensured there was smooth change to a new system.
During the referendum campaign, it was never clearly spelled out what that new system would look like. Would Britain still be in the European free trade area? What would be the rules governing immigration between the two sides and the movement of travelers? And most importantly, what would be done with Northern Ireland, where decades of Catholic/Protestant strife was quelled in 1998 under the Good Friday Agreement? That agreement, which included not just groups within Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK), but also included the British and Irish governments, removed the border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Under Brexit, if Britain no longer allowed the free movement of goods and people between the UK and the EU, then a hard border with the usual customs and immigration control would have to be set up again. Such an action would unravel the Good Friday Agreement and possible plunge Northern Ireland back into violence and unrest.
The Conservative Prime Minister for the last three years, Theresa May, did negotiate a final agreement with the EU, one in which trade links would be maintained and the Good Friday Agreement would not be threatened. But a small faction of hardliners in her own party voted that down repeatedly because it left Britain too closely aligned with the EU. May eventually gave up and resigned last month, and Boris Johnson, a hard line Brexiteer, became Prime Minister.
Johnson claims that he can get a better deal from the EU if he threatens to leave without an agreement by October 31, a “crashing out” of the EU that would bring possible economic chaos to Britain. But the Labor and Liberal Democrats in opposition teamed up with enough moderate Conservative MPs to block that and pass a law preventing Johnson from crashing out. He is legally required now to go to the EU and request another 90-day extension on Brexit.
So, where does Boris Johnson go from here? One option is for him to defy the law and simply do nothing. Without a formal request from London, the EU cannot grant an extension on its own, and while the Parliament passed the law, the Prime Minister has to actually follow it. Would Johnson risk possible prison or loss of power to carry out a hard Brexit on October 31? I doubt that. But Johnson likely has another strategy in mind.
Johnson will comply with this law for now. But he will then call a new election for November. His goal will be to win a clear victory and have the mandate then to pursue a hard Brexit. The voters in Britain are split. In a mirror of American politics, Brexit is supported by older, White, less educated, rural voters. Remain is supported by urban, younger, educated, and more diverse voters. The vote in 2016 was very close. A revote on Brexit would be hard to predict but would likely result in an overturning of the original referendum. The opposition wants a revote on any final agreement to either carry it out or cancel Brexit. The Leave camp at this point wants a hard Brexit and to leave the EU with no agreement, regardless of the consequences.
Would Brexit really be a catastrophe? There would certainly be disruption to trade and industry, and to the flow of workers between the EU and Britain. But in the long run these issues would be worked out. Britain did fine even when it was not part of the EU. Leaving would be an economic hit, but not a disaster.
Where Brexit would cause major problems for Britain is internally. After a hard Brexit, the situation in Northern Ireland could become very difficult again. Even more importantly, the Scots are dead set against leaving the EU. Scotland narrowly defeated an independence referendum in 2014, after Brexit, the Scots would likely vote to leave the UK and rejoin the EU as a new nation.
Boris Johnson is calculating that he can win a new election in November. The Labor leader, Jeremy Corbyn, is an extreme left-winger who frightens a lot of middle-class Britons, giving the Conservatives an election advantage. In addition, with the British system of first past the post, Johnson thinks he can consolidate the Leave voters behind his party, while the Remain voters will split between Labor, Liberal Democrats, and the Scottish National Party (in Scotland of course). As such, he could win a big Parliamentary majority even if he only gets 40-45% of the total vote. But even if he does succeed at that, history will not look at him kindly if the result is the political collapse of the UK.
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