Has Pakistan Achieved Herd Immunity against COVID-19?
By Riaz Haq
CA
How widespread are coronavirus infections and vaccinations in Pakistan? Has Pakistan achieved herd immunity or is close to achieving it? The latest IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) report on Pakistan (dated August 19, 2021) claims that "about 81% of the population have been infected, and about 65% are immune to the Delta variant". It says that the "cases and deaths are declining in Pakistan, but the situation remains fragile".
The report defines two types of coronavirus variants: escape and non-escape. The escape variants include Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1) and Delta (India) variants while non-escape variants are the original ancestral virus and Alpha (UK) variant. The report projects Pakistan reaching 75% to 90% immunity to various COVID-19 variants through a combination of infections and vaccinations by the end of 2021.
The IHME August 19 COVID-19 results briefing on Pakistan also warns: "If mobility increases and mask wearing declines as cases are declining (people let down their guard), cases could surge again". Here is the summary of the IHME report:
"Cases and deaths are declining in Pakistan, but the situation remains fragile. We estimate that about 81% of the population have been infected, and about 65% are immune to the Delta variant (accounting for cross-variant protection). If mobility increases and mask wearing declines as cases are declining (people let down their guard), cases could surge again."
If the IHME modeling of COVID-19 in Pakistan is correct, it raises hope that Pakistan is nearing an end to the current pandemic that has badly hurt its people and economy. Achieving this goal will require that Pakistanis continue to implement the following five strategies recommended by IHME.
1) Increase vaccination through outreach and perhaps vaccine mandates from employers and making it easy to get vaccinated;
2) Reduce the risk of major transmission if schools are to open through appropriate use of mitigation measures including universal masking, sufficient distancing of students, and periodic testing of all students;
3) Support hospital systems that will be under severe stress in the next 4–6 weeks;
4) Implement mask mandates in states or communities with major surges in hospitalization; and
5) Maintain surveillance on breakthrough infection by type of vaccine and time since vaccination – as well as adequate testing for vaccinated and unvaccinated – in order to accurately track the evolution of the epidemic".
(Riaz Haq is a Silicon Valley-based Pakistani-American analyst and writer. He blogs at www.riazhaq.com)
