Pakistan Turns 75
By Nayyer Ali MD
Pakistan is now 75 years old. Has this experiment in a separate nation for the Muslims of British India been a success or failure? With the ongoing political and economic turbulence in Pakistan, it is very easy to paint a negative picture, but looking at the long-term trends, Pakistan has made remarkable strides in providing a decent life for its citizens, though there are many areas where it could have done better.
In economic terms, the country has advanced dramatically compared to West Pakistan in 1950. East Pakistan became independent Bangladesh after a civil war in 1971, and perhaps trying to put Punjab and Sindh together with Bengal in one country was asking too much given the massive geographic separation and the difference of language and culture. Islam alone was not enough to hold the two wings together.
In terms of per capita income, it has risen to about 7,500 dollars in purchasing power parity terms, compared with less than 1,000 in 1950. Electricity production has soared, from a miniscule 40 gigawatt hours in 1950 to over 136,000 gigawatt hours in 2021. The economy grew last year by over 6%, while electricity production was up by 10%.
Population has grown by over six-fold since 1950. There were 34 million back then, and Pakistan now has over 225 million people. Population continues to grow through the rate has been declining. Total fertility rate, the average number of children per woman is now at 3.3, which is still well above replacement but has declined from 6.5 in 1950. Pakistan is probably headed for a population over 300 million people by 2050.
Life expectancy and infant mortality have improved. Life expectancy is now 67 years, compared with 50 in 1950. This is still less than advanced nations, which normally are around 80 years. Pakistan needs to bring down its infant mortality rate, which is still higher than India and Bangladesh.
Agriculture, which provides the necessary food for this massive population, has also seen tremendous growth. Wheat crop has risen from 3.3 million tons to 26 million tons, though yields still have a lot of room to go even higher. Rice has risen from 0.7 million tons to 9.3 million tons, and corn has gone up from 0.3 million tons to 10.6 million. The average Pakistan now consumes about 2,700 calories per day. Meat production has surged in the last 50 years form 568 thousand tons to 5.2 million tons. Milk has gone from 7.8 million liters to 53 million liters. Plentiful meat and milk provide a much higher quality protein source in the diet.
Education has been an area where great strides have been made, but much more needs to be done. Literacy rates have risen from 16% to 63% of the population since 1950, but many poor countries have reached over 95% literacy. Pakistan needs to do a much better job investing in its youth and providing decent education for all. Universities have grown by a huge margin, rising from a few thousand students in 1947 to about 2 million today.
Phones and vehicles are two of the most necessary implements of modernity, and Pakistan has seen rapid growth in both. There were only 15,000 phones in Pakistan in 1947 and today there are over 190 million. The number of vehicles on the roads has climbed from merely 32,000 in 1947 to over 32 million today, though about 75% are motorcycles. The highway infrastructure has also grown from 26,000 kilometers of roads to over 500,000 kilometers. The latest roads are modern highways designed for high-speed travel linking the major cities.
While Pakistan has been a success, it is also a disappointment. Growth has not been as fast as East Asian Tigers like South Korea or even Malaysia. If Pakistan’s economic management had just been slightly better, enough to add 1% per year to the growth rate, the economy would be double of its present size and the nation would be well within the range of middle-income countries like China and Brazil. It is imperative that the government follow sound policies for going forward and invest in human capital and infrastructure.
The toppling of the Imran Khan government has created unnecessary political turmoil. The correct solution after the no-confidence vote was to hold elections, but the PML-N and PPP are afraid of voters. They know that Imran Khan would come back to power in a landslide. They have another year to cling to government till they are forced to hold elections, but till then Pakistan will be rudderless.
Inflation has hit Pakistan very hard, even worse than in the US and EU. It surged to almost 20% in the last few months. This has put pressure on the currency, and the rupee lost value until the last few weeks where it regained some footing against the dollar. The dollar has been very strong across the board, rising to its highest value against major currencies in the last 20 years.
The State Bank of Pakistan has to follow a tight money policy with high interest rates to bring inflation down. This will slow economic growth in the short term. Pakistan’s other problem is that it simply imports too much. Imports were running over 7 billion dollars per month, driven by higher oil and commodity prices. Exports were only about 3.5 billion dollars per month, leaving a huge trade gap. Pakistan has covered that for the last decade with remittance dollars, but it needs to export more and close that gap. The declining value of the rupee did finally begin to have the expected effect on imports in July. They declined sharply to under 6 billion dollars, and hopefully the fall in oil and other commodity prices will take some pressure off Pakistan’s import bill going forward.
Pakistan in 1947 was one of the least developed regions of the world. It has made huge progress since then, but it could have done better. Despite that, it has provided for the Muslims of western regions of British India a land where they are not permanent second-class citizens. Pakistanis need only glance at the state and status of the Muslims of India if they want to decide whether this experiment was worth it.
