Biden Leads US in Geopolitical Triumph
By Nayyer Ali MD
Putin’s insane war on Ukraine is now over two months old, but the end game is coming into sight. Instead of winning an easy victory with no actual fighting, Putin’s army was stymied and defeated in the north before it could seize Kyev and had to withdraw back to the border. It is now facing a growing Ukrainian power in the east and south, which will result in its total defeat in the next 90 days. This defeat will be result of Ukrainian courage and competence but will also be due to the great leadership of President Biden in mobilizing the West to support Ukraine.
As we have seen the Russian army is a badly trained, badly led, and badly equipped force that didn’t invade with the thought that it would actually have to fight a real war. The whole system is corrupt, and the military is no exception. The Russian ground army is a rather small force; while the military as a whole has about 950,000 personnel, the army only has about 300,000. Russia committed about 190,000 to this war, which represents the bulk of its ground combat forces. They have been chewed up over the last 66 days, thoroughly mauled in the north, and have stopped advancing for several weeks in the south. Russia has not been able to create control of the air, and they cannot replace their losses of tanks and APC and artillery etc. from production. What is in mothballs is so rusted out and gutted for parts as to be useless. Meanwhile, Ukraine is being copiously supplied from the West, and now 33 billion dollars in lend lease aid that Biden has requested is a massive boost on top of what has already been sent. Not just the dollar amount but the quality of the materiel is far ahead of Russia.
The battle in the north was in forested muddy terrain that confined the Russians to roads where they were picked off with Javelins and Stingers. The south is steppe country, like Kansas. No natural cover for troops. Artillery is able to pound anyone who moves forward. This has led to a frozen battlefield in the south for the last several weeks.
What is going to break the stalemate are the new weapon systems Ukraine is getting. The M777 artillery guns from the US have guided munitions that can hit targets accurately out to 25 miles, while drones will give Ukraine the ability to locate Russian targets far behind the front. The combination will allow the Ukrainians to first destroy Russian artillery and any other fixed positions along with exposed tanks, then will allow them to blast open the Russian front lines. Ukraine has received so many tanks they likely have more than the Russians now and will be able to advance once the M777 guns have done their work. The Ukrainians will likely attack to the south, first to cut off Crimea and also to relieve Mariupol. Crimea will be impossible for the Russians to defend once the land route is cut, and the loss of Crimea will probably mean the end of the war as it will be an utter humiliation that Putin cannot explain away. If Russia continues to fight in the east in the Donbas region, the Ukrainians will be able to dislodge them.
Ukraine is being copiously supplied with advanced weapons, but it is also getting fantastic intelligence help from the US. Russian communications are compromised, and Russian positions are being relayed to the Ukrainians in real time. This allows Ukraine to direct artillery precisely at Russian locations, and likely explains why ten Russian generals have been killed so far. The US also likely helped Ukraine with radar data and other communications that gave them the opportunity to sink the main Russian warship in the Black Sea a few weeks ago.
This defeat of Russia and Putinism is a huge geopolitical win for the US. It means that the West has expanded further to the east to include Ukraine, while Russia will have been permanently reduced in the eyes of the world to a minor power. Russia’s economy is also dependent on its sales of oil and natural gas, especially gas to Europe. This war has resulted in the European powers to commit to getting off Russian oil and gas completely. While this will take a few years to fully come to be, Europe’s purchases of Russian fuels is already down sharply, even in Germany.
After Russia’s defeat on the battlefield, the question will turn to what will the peace look like? And what will Russia need to do to come out from under Western sanctions? The answer is going to be a lot. Russia will be hobbled as long as Putin remains in power, and its best chance of getting back to being part of the international order in good standing is to move toward being a real democracy. If that happens, it will leave China completely isolated.
