Commentary

Book & Author
Professor Dr. Iqbal Ali: Undeclared Water War on Pakistan
By Dr Ahmed S. Khan
Chicago, IL

“A river is more than an amenity; it is a treasure. It offers a necessity of life that must be rationed among those who have power over it.”

- Justice Oliver W. Holmes (1841-1935)

Justice of the US Supreme Court, 1902-1932

“Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel prizes—one for peace and one for science.”

President John F. Kennedy (1917 – 1963)

Recent unusual above-normal rainfall has caused havoc in Pakistan – thousands have died, millions have become homeless, billions of dollars’ worth of crops and property have been destroyed. During the past four decades, lack of planning for building necessary water infrastructure coupled with mega corruption has led to current country-wide mega flooding that has been described as a climatic catastrophe. Meteorological data reveals that the country, every few years, goes through a cycle of drought and flooding, which results in massive fatalities and huge economic losses.

Water is the lifeblood of billions of people all over the globe. Water use has been increasing at more than twice the rate of population growth in the last century. The UN experts forecast that by 2025, 1.8 billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity, and two-thirds of the world population could face severe stress conditions on their water supplies.

Looking into the future, many experts value water to be more precious than oil, silver, and gold, and believe that in the near future the liquid wars will focus on water and not oil. It is just a matter of time before countries flex their muscle to secure water for their growing populations. The US security establishment has already warned about potential conflicts over water. In a 2012 ICA Global Water Security report , the US director of national intelligence warned that overuse of water – as in India and other countries – was a source of conflict that could potentially compromise US national security.

In South Asia, Pakistan and India are facing severe water shortages. Many experts have warned about the potential threat of a regional water war. Nina Brooks, in her article Imminent Water Crisis in India , observes, “India could become the stage for major international water wars because so many rivers that originate in India supply water to other countries. India has the power to avoid this dark future if people take action immediately.”

In Undeclared Water War on Pakistan: Tactical and Strategic Defense Measures, Professor Dr Iqbal Ali (d. 2018) presents a captivating account of an undeclared water war imposed on Pakistan. Dr Ali describes a historical perspective and the social, economic, and ecological challenges that must be overcome to prevent the looming water crisis. In his view, Pakistan has already reached the level of Ethiopia and other desert nations, such as Libya and Algeria, and water shortage is forcing it to become a water-scarce nation.

Professor Dr Iqbal Ali had unique credentials to pen this manuscript. This book reflects his more than fifty years of experience and expertise in the field of Water Resource Management and Engineering. He graduated in Civil Engineering from University of Jabalpur (1958) and acquired his master’s degree in Dams and Water Power Engineering from IIT, Kharagpur (1960), and completed his PhD from University of Leeds, UK (1969). He was a member of ASCE and International Association of Environmental Impact Assessment, and Life Fellow of Institution of Engineers, Pakistan, and Pakistan Engineering Congress. He had served on the faculty of University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore (1962-1975), King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals Dhahran, Saudi Arabia (1975 – 1987), NED University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, (1988-1997 & 2008-2012). He was a member of the Technical Committee on Water Resources (2003-2005), appointed by the Government of Pakistan to investigate the possibility of building Kalabagh Dam (KBD) and related issues. He has authored numerous research articles, and many textbooks which are being used in universities around the globe.

Dr Ali has skillfully covered a wide span of time, from pre-partition to the present, by critically examining past and present water issues and assessing future scenarios related to an undeclared water war that has been imposed on Pakistan. The author has masterfully juxtaposed technical details with historical facts in straightforward language so that readers with non-technical backgrounds can grasp the complexities of the issue.

The book consists of eight chapters and seven appendices which contain a plethora of information; the appendix on India’s Water Crisis is a chapter in itself. Other appendices present information on topics like global energy challenges, Indus Water Treaty, judgment on Baglihar, China’s Three Gorges Dam, Report on Kalabagh Dam feasibility, and India’s water conflict with Bangladesh.

In Chapter 1, The Prelude, Dr Ali sets the stage for his thesis of undeclaredwater war imposed on Pakistan by exploring the historical perspective about Wars for Resources. The author observes: “Pakistan’s economy depends on agriculture which depends mainly on surface water. Destroying, reducing, or wasting the precious irrigation supplies will cause irreparable loss to the economy, and this is one surefire way to overwhelm the nation. Unknown to many, Pakistan has silently been facing the water war ever since it came into existence in 1947. Just like military warfare, the water war is being imposed by external aggression and internal subversion. In the pages that follow a complete description and analysis of the water war imposed on Pakistan is discussed. Then, short- and long-term remedial measures are proposed.”

In Chapter 2, Agriculture, Water, and Pakistan, the author discusses the importance of agriculture for Pakistan. He states: “Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy and survival in the face of international economic sanctions. What is oil and gas for Saudi Arabia and Iran, agriculture is for Pakistan. When sanctions were imposed after the nuclear tests in 1998, Pakistan could bear them because our farmers produced enough wheat and food for the country. Irrigation based agriculture in the Indus Valley was developed as early as 8000 BC. The Mohenjo-Daro civilization, dependent on river-fed agriculture, dates back to 4500 BC. At present, agriculture contributes 22 percent of GDP and employs about 43 percent of the labor force. Pakistan ranks eighth in the world in farm output.”

In Chapter 3, Water War: 1947- Onwards, Dr Ali explores the root cause of the water conflict. He observes that the undeclared water war, in fact began with the Radcliffe Award, and giving Madhopur and Ferozepur barrages to India. The author observes that this was an unnatural and biased demarcation that can be considered the first attack on the waterfront. The result became visible within six months (January 1948), when the water was switched off in the Dipalpur canal and Upper Bari Doab Canal (UBDC). Within four months of independence, thousands of acres of wheat crop dried up with no water in the canals. The author reflecting on the background of the award states: “Why did Radcliffe commit the crime? Historians blame his boss Mountbatten, the then Viceroy of India. Radcliffe submitted his report…When Gurdaspur and Ferozepur were announced to be in India and not Pakistan, it went against what was originally recommended by his Radcliffe Commission. It is said that during these five days, Mountbatten was persuading Maharaja of Kashmir to announce accession to India. When he did not succeed, he included Gurdaspur, Pathankot and Ferozepur in India. It is also believed that Gurdaspur and Pathankot were included to provide the only land link to Kashmir. The other road link that existed was in Pakistan. What about Ferozepur? Did he want Muslim Kashmir to go to India or was he planting an issue to keep India and Pakistan fighting forever? Was it the policy of divide and rule at play? There are many theories but the one which is nearest to the truth and proven to be a fact of history is that Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, the great Indian leader, was a Kashmiri Brahmin and Pandit. It was impossible for him to see his Kashmir accede to Pakistan. He possessed a charming and persuasive personality, and being educated in England’s famous public school system, was well versed in English manners. As is well known Lady Mountbatten fell in love with Nehru, and he exploited her love for his personal and political gains. Through her, he influenced Mountbatten to change the original Radcliffe award and exclude Gurdaspur and Pathankot from Pakistan to provide a road link between India and Kashmir.”

In Chapter 4, Middle Stage Attack (1952-60), Dr Ali expounds on the background that led to the Indus Water Treaty, and the fact that India was waging the water war with a strategy and a long-range plan, while this issue did not get the attention it deserved in Pakistan. He observes that Western powers, through the World Bank, favored the Indian demands while the political instability (1952-58) in Pakistan had a disastrous effect on the lower Riparian of Sutlej and Ravi. Pakistan's weak-nerved military rulers were clearly outsmarted by the Indians with their clever and mature negotiation tactics, he believes. On the negotiation table, it was a war of nerves that Pakistan was losing. India prevailed on Pakistan to agree to totally surrender Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi, taking away from Pakistan 24 million acre-feet (MAF) per year. The loss amounted to losing almost 3 Tarbela or 4 Kalabagh reservoirs.

Expounding on Indian strategy and advancements in the education sector, the author observes: “India continued on its track, laid down by the first prime minister, and by 2012 the country had completed 4,847 major water resource projects and thousands of minor dams. Similarly, the dream of engineering education that was seen by the then education minister Maulana Abul Kalam Azad became a reality with three levels of engineering institutes, i.e., state-level, regional colleges and Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), amongst other high-level specialized institutes in the public and private sector established all over India. In 1960 when I did my Master’s degree in Dams Engineering from IIT, Kharagpur there were four and today there are thirteen IITs spread all over India. The IIT's have gained the respect of the academic world and their output dominates the Western market, particularly the US. It is this engineering education revolution that the world’s topmost IT corporations, like Cisco Systems, Oracle, Microsoft, etc., are run by Indians and they own no less than 700 companies in Silicon Valley, California, USA. Today it is an Indian who has succeeded Bill Gates to run Microsoft. Whatever little progress was achieved by the Higher Education Commission (HEC) in Pakistan from 2000 through 2008 has been undone by the wadera rulers of Pakistan. No major dam has been built since 1975.”

In Chapter 5, Last Stage: 1990-Onwards, Dr Ali states that the second stage (1952–60) ended in a victory for India since they achieved more than they had sought, once Pakistan happily signed the Indus Water Treaty in September 1960. Under the treaty India in addition to three eastern rivers was given 4.45 MAF/year from three western rivers and was further allowed to continue to draw water for their existing projects on western rivers. Pakistan was denied drawing waters from the eastern rivers and asked to build replacement works costing billions of dollars, a great financial burden which also caused environmental degradation and change of morphology. The author further observes that it can be said this treaty was more unfortunate than the one signed in Dhaka in 1971.

The author also draws attention to the gravity of the situation created by India’s construction of multiple dams, as pointed out by John Briscoe, the World Bank irrigation adviser. After the judgment of the neutral expert allowing India spillway gates, John Briscoe wrote: “If Baglihar was the only dam being constructed on Chenab and Jhelum, it would be a limited problem. But following Baglihar is a veritable caravan of Indian projects — Kishenganga, Sawalkot, Pukuldal, Bursar, Dulhuste, Gypsa, and on and on. The cumulative live storage will be large enough giving India unquestionable capacity to have a major impact on the timing of flows into Pakistan.”

In Chapter 6, The Internal Subversion, the author presents an account of how anti-Pakistan forces used internal subversion to create a powerful anti-Kalabagh lobby to promote mistrust among all stakeholders. The author observes that the postponement of Kalabagh has pushed Pakistan toward becoming a water-scarce nation. The rising population and consequent rise in demand for food and water, and depletion of storage due to silting in the three existing reservoirs, has brought pressure on groundwater supplies. The anti-Kalabagh lobby claims it is based on technical and not political grounds, which Dr Ali disputes. He advises that Pakistan should let no foreign agency succeed in creating an internal quarrel that can forever seal the fate of building storage structures for water, which is now just getting wasted by flowing into the sea, while the thirsty lands of Sindh, Punjab, Baluchistan, and KPK are crying for water. The author has compared the construction features of Kalabagh with Bhasha in the following table.

Factor	Kalabagh	Bhasha
Location	Punjab	Gilgit Baltistan
Type	Earthfill	Roller Compacted Concrete
Height	259 ft	892 ft
Storage	7.8 MAF	7.3 MAF
Power	3600 MW	4500 MW
Likely Cost	$7.2 billion	12.6 billion
Time Required for Completion	4-5 years	10-12 years
Time to Complete Access to Damsite	Zero (existing)	5-6 years
Total time	3-4 years	15-18 years
Storage per foot height of dam	300,000ac. ft.	8184 ac.ft.
Cost per foot of water stored	$923	$1726
Expertise Required	Local construction companies	Highly Specialized Construction Companies of International Repute
Financial	i) Possible to build with national resources ii) Return period of benefits is 4-5 years	i) Not possible without World Bank, ADB or other donors ii) Return period of benefits 15-18 years
No objection Certificate from India	not required	Required by World Bank, ADB, etc.
Transmission Lines	Short Lines	Long Lines
Flood Control in Lower Punjab and Sindh	Can control	Cannot control

Dr Ali recommends that in all provinces of Pakistan, especially in Sindh and Punjab, all stakeholders need to be educated about the water scarcity and potential solutions for dealing with it, so that instead of fighting amongst themselves on the distribution of water they should unite to deal with India’s undeclared water war. Instead of agitating against KBD, which should be constructed as soon as possible to end the ongoing energy crisis, the agitation should address the threat posed to Pakistan through the Baglihar Dam and scores of dams built in India on the rivers flowing into Pakistan. A new strategy and “a national water policy” need to be developed to deal with the undeclared water war on Pakistan.

In Chapter 7, Pakistan’s Water Scenarios and Challenges, Dr Ali analyzes both the external onslaught and the internal subversion aiming to prevent the construction of major water resources in Pakistan. Addressing the leadership, Dr Ali observes: “The wadera rulers should trust their water resources experts, and cooperate with them to manage this problem, rather than use the water issues for political games…The idea of building Motorways is great and wonderful, but water, energy and hydropower resources are the most wanted dynamic economic engines required for the progress of a nation, and thus, must be placed on the top of the priority list of national mega projects.” The author has also presented “Carry over and Storage Capacity” of dams in various countries in the following table.

	Carry-over Capacity	Storage Capacity m³/person
Egypt (Aswan)	1000 days (Nile)	—
U.S.A	900 days	6150
Australia	600 days	5000
South Africa	500 days	—
India	220 days	323 (will be 400 after completion of dams under construction
Pakistan	30 days	73

Every few years, floods in Pakistan cause massive destruction of crops and property. Dr Ali suggests that the floods of the Indus system must be captured by building a series of dams at every feasible site. He observes that the price of uncaptured flood water wasted to the sea is about 13.2 billion dollars, which is equivalent to 10 Tarbela Reservoirs. If stored and routed through KBD, this water would have generated 30,476 MW of much needed electricity, the engine for economic growth. To deal with water shortages in urban centers like Karachi, Dr Ali proposes the construction of desalination plants, working on alternate energy sources like solar and wind power.

In Chapter 8, Tactical and Strategic Defense Measures, Dr Ali argues forcefully for the construction of the KBD as it offers an immediate solution to stop Pakistan's constant retreat in the water war. Dr Ali poses a pertinent question: “If the federal government can engage the militants in dialogue, why not have a dialogue with the Anti-KBD lobby?” He observes that the KBD can be started right away and should be taken up without delay, for the following reasons:

It can be built by Pakistani engineering construction companies with Pakistani supervision.
Finances can be arranged from within and from international donors.
The time required for completion, about 5-6 years, is minimal compared to other dams.
It will produce 3,600 MW of cheap power.
It is the only dam which can better control the floods in South Punjab and Sindh.
Operation of Kalabagh reservoir in conjunction with Tarbela can fully meet the need for irrigation water of all the provinces, thus fostering harmony and good relations amongst them.
The site is already connected by roads and railway lines, and is close to the national power grid, thus avoids long transmission lines.
This is the only dam which can control the floods of the Kabul River.

Dr Ali observes that Pakistan used to be a “W ater Effluent Nation, then became a Water Deficient Nation, then fell to a Water-Scarce Nation, and, finally, will become a Rain Dependent (Barani) Nation.” Unless it takes steps, that is…Without new reservoirs the wonderful irrigation system of Pakistan will operate like an automobile engine without a flywheel, leading to jerk after jerk. Dr Ali warns that if Pakistani leadership does not rise to the occasion and take a bold decision on building a new reservoir at Kalabagh, followed by other dams, the water war on Pakistan will place the country on the last and final step of the water scarcity ladder, below which there are no more steps.

Unique in its depth, breath and detailed analysis, Undeclared Water War on Pakistan: Tactical and Strategic Defense Measures, stimulates, inspires, and builds awareness of the importance of water shortages, and presents viable solutions for dealing with the challenges. The manuscript includes numerous tables, statistics, charts, and photographs to supplement the chapter contents. The book concludes with a unifying message of River Indus. It is a must read for anyone seeking technical or non-technical understanding of the water issues of the present and future. The book is a valuable reference for water experts, policy makers, academics, and the public at large.

(Dr Ahmed S. Khan - dr.a.s.khan@ieee.org.org - is a Fulbright Specialist Scholar - 2017-2022).