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Trump in Trouble
By Nayyer Ali MD
In just a few short weeks the Presidential race has been completely upended. After Biden’s fiasco at the June debate, things looked bleak for the Democrats. Trump was riding high, and increasing his lead in both national and swing state polls. He went on to pick Senator JD Vance as his running mate and held a Republican convention dedicated to blasting Biden as an old and likely demented Democrat. While Democratic voters were not shifting to Trump, they were frustrated and dejected. There was zero enthusiasm on the Democratic side, and fundraising was drying up as both large and small donors shut their wallets.
Into this mess rode Nancy Pelosi. While many Democrats thought it was best for Biden to step aside, and some Congressional members publicly called for this, Biden and his team seemed to be trying to tough it out and hold on to the nomination. Pelosi met with Biden and demanded he show a path to victory in the polling, which in fact, was not there. Biden in the end did the right thing and declined the nomination.
In the space of 24 hours the party coalesced behind Vice President Kamala Harris, and even the Democrats most likely to contest for the nomination, like Governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer and California Governor Gavin Newsom, endorsed Harris. Instead of the feared chaos of a convention with no clear nominee, Harris rapidly sewed up the spot on the top of the ticket. This unleashed a tidal wave of cash from donors, with almost 300 million dollars coming in during the last ten days of July.
In addition to the cash came a dramatic change in the dynamics of the race. Instead of Biden being the old tired candidate, it was now Trump. Harris has seen parts of the Democratic coalition such as minority and young voters come back to the party in polls where previously they seemed to lack enthusiasm for Biden. She made a good choice for Vice President in Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. While he does not hail from a key swing state, such as Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, he brings an energetic and down-to-earth style to the campaign that has been refreshing to witness. Harris and Walz appear to be having fun and projecting an optimistic upbeat tone.
The voters are reacting. Harris has been holding massive rallies with tremendous turnout in the swing states. In just a few weeks the national polls have moved about 5 points on average toward Harris and away from Trump. The highly credible New York Times poll of swing states shows Harris winning in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania along with Nevada and Arizona. Other polls show Harris and Trump tied in Georgia and North Carolina. Trump has seen his prospects go from a sure thing to probably going to lose in short order.
Trump meanwhile appears to be flailing. He has not been able to come up with a good attack line against Harris. He appears to have lost confidence in his running mate, as JD Vance has failed to connect with voters, and some of his extreme views on abortion and women’s obligation to have children have not played well with the average voter. Trump also has mysteriously stopped campaigning. In a single week, he held only one campaign event, a rally in Montana, which is a state that is not being contested and should easily vote for Trump. It may be that his near miss of an assassination attempt has spooked him, and he now is actually afraid to hold large rallies in public.
Trump is also showing his age. He lacks mental dexterity and his speech is devoid of much content. He goes on strange digressions involving sharks, electrocution, and a fictional villain from a movie over thirty years old. He is supposed to debate Harris on September 10, but he will likely back out of that. If he does show up, it could turn into his own embarrassing debate, much like Biden’s in June. But there is no plan B for Trump or the Republicans.
Trump has no choice but to fight this out to the bitter end. He knows if he fails to win the election, he will spend the rest of his life in jail or on trial in court. He is due to be sentenced in the New York election fraud case where he was found guilty of 34 felonies. The judge is due to sentence him in mid-September, and it is entirely possible that he gets sent to jail, which would obviously kill his campaign.
Trump’s campaign is a total mess right now. He lacks any discipline. His donors may get spooked soon and decide not to keep throwing good money if the polls keep going against him. Harris is likely to see a further bump in her polls from the Democratic National Convention next week. Meanwhile, Trump has installed his daughter-in-law as head of the Republican National Committee, and his team has outsourced the voter turnout operation in the swing states to a private right-wing group called Turning Points USA. It’s unclear if they are capable of actually performing.
The election is not over. Already we have seen dramatic swings in a short period of time. But Trump is down to less than 80 days in this campaign, and in many states early voting starts in six weeks. The Trump team needs to right the ship immediately or face the consequences.
