Syrians celebrate the fall of Asad. Millions of Syrians are now making plans to head home. Some have already returned and are figuring out how to rebuild their homes, villages, and towns. Many of these Syrians have experienced life in free societies where they can speak their mind – Photo GZERO Media
The Fall of Assad
By Nayyer Ali MD
After 14 years of civil war that began with the Arab Spring uprisings of early 2011, the Assad regime in Syria collapsed in a sudden gust. From the launch of their offensive on November 27, it took the rebels only 11 days to get to Damascus. With the end of Assad and the freeing of political prisoners, Syria has a chance to heal and to actually build a democracy from within, rather than the Bush strategy of imposing one on Iraq with a military invasion.
The Syrian civil war killed roughly 500,000 people, about 150,000 were civilians. Another 6 million civilians became internal refugees fleeing the government-controlled areas, and 6 million Syrians decamped to Turkey, Lebanon, and Europe. This was the largest refugee population in the entire world.
Most of the deaths occurred in the first six years of the war. Assad initially looked like he was slowly losing, but Russia and Iran came to his aid in 2015, and Russian airpower made a huge difference. The main rebel factions were pushed back and confined to a small area centered on the northwestern city of Idlib. In 2014 ISIS gained control of much of eastern Syria and spread into Iraq. With US help ISIS was mostly destroyed, and the small northeastern Kurdish population seized control of Syria east of the Euphrates.
Most of Syria’s oil wells came under American control as US advisors were working with the Kurds. Turkey also sponsored its own rebels that held small bits of territory in the north, and Turkey used to act as a check on the Syrian Kurds. There is a huge Kurdish population in southeastern Turkey, and the Turks are always vigilant against any movement to push for an independent Kurdish state which would mean the dismemberment of Turkey. Assad’s forces held onto Damascus, the coast, and the main cities north of Damascus including Homs, Hama, and most importantly Aleppo. Assad came to rely heavily on Iranian support and the active participation of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia militia.
But in the last year, Assad suffered critical losses. Russia pulled out most of its Air Force as the planes were needed for the Ukrainian war. Iran was struck hard by Israeli aircraft a few weeks ago. Hezbollah was also crippled by the war it started against Israel after the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. Hezbollah had its entire leadership wiped out in an airstrike, while thousands of its rank and file were injured severely via exploding pagers that had been snuck into Hezbollah use by Israel. Hezbollah had been so severely crippled that it agreed to a ceasefire with Israel and the removal of its forces to the north of Litani River in Lebanon. Assad also had run out of money. He had been reduced to being a drug dealer, with his income coming from the sale of an amphetamine, captagon, in the Middle East and Europe. He was unable to pay his soldiers, who were getting only 10 dollars per month.
When it became obvious to the main rebel faction, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), that Assad was critically weakened, they attacked out of their pocket around Idlib. They seized the great prize of Aleppo rapidly and then proceeded south liberating Hama and Homs. With that the regime collapsed, Assad flew to Moscow, and the rebels entered Damascus.
This turn of events is great for the people of Syria, but only if they can set aside their deep differences and create a viable state. The Assad regime rested on the Alawite minority, which only made up 10% of the population. Alawi are an offshoot of Shia Islam, and their beliefs incorporate many Christian elements. Most Sunni Muslims do not consider them to be Muslims, as their religious beliefs are so different from traditional Islam.
The big question is what will HTS and its leader Mohammad Al-Jolani do now that they are in power? Will there be brutal revenge killings of those groups that supported Assad, namely Alawi, Christian, and Shia Syrians? Will HTS try to impose an Islamist state and a dictatorship of its own? HTS has its origins in a branch of Al-Qaeda but distanced itself from that movement over 10 years ago. It is still listed as a terrorist group by the US, however. What will the Kurds in the east do now and will the new government take control of the oil fields?
The best outcome would be a tolerant pluralistic society. If a person wants to wear hijab and pray and fast they can do so, but for those who don’t, there will not be any consequences. Syria clearly needs a new constitution. Will that protect free speech, outlaw torture, grant gender equality, and protect the rights of minorities? Will Syrians actually create a democracy that works, unlike the corrupt state that is Iraq? The lack of massive oil wealth is actually a good thing for Syria, otherwise, politics becomes just a scramble for oil money.
Millions of Syrians are now making plans to head home. Some have already returned and are figuring out how to rebuild their homes, villages, and towns. Many of these Syrians have experienced life in free societies where they can speak their mind. Either by living in Turkey or Europe. They will not want a Syria that is just a new dictator replacing an old one. For the people of Syria, this is a moment of great joy and hope. The next few years will show whether that hope was misplaced or not.
