Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, has no desire to engage in direct conflict with the West - AFP
Why Iran Is Avoiding a Full-Blown War with the West
By Con Coughlin
A major objective of the attacks launched by the US and Britain against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen will have been to ensure that, apart from deterring further attacks on merchant shipping in the Red Sea, the operation did not prompt a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East.
Ever since Hamas, another terrorist organization that enjoys Tehran’s backing, launched its murderous assault on Israel on Oct 7, one of the prime considerations for Western policymakers is that the Gaza conflict does not develop into a wider Middle East war.
It was for this reason that, in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attacks, the Biden administration deployed two aircraft carrier battle groups to the region to deter Iran from using its network of proxies in the region, including the Houthis, from seeking to provoke further destabilization.
And, to date, the policy has worked. While Hezbollah, Iran’s main ally in southern Lebanon, has launched sporadic attacks against northern Israel, and Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq have attacked US bases, fears of a major escalation in the Gaza conflict have proved unfounded.
The only area where Iran and its allies have succeeded in making any significant impact has been in the Red Sea , where the Houthis, who rely heavily on Tehran for military equipment, have gradually been intensifying their attacks on merchant shipping entering the approaches to the Suez Canal.
Initially the Houthis, who declared war against Israel after the Israel Defense Forces launched its assault in Gaza to destroy Hamas , claimed they would only attack vessels destined for the Jewish state. In recent weeks, though, their attacks have spread to include other shipping, especially cargoes destined for Europe and the US.
The tactic is a deliberate attempt to disrupt the Western economy by forcing shipping companies to reroute their operations around the Cape of Good Hope, incurring extra costs and potentially fueling another inflationary spike .
While American, British and French warships have previously been involved in intercepting Houthi missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea, the Houthis’ deliberate attempt to target US and British warships operating in the region on Tuesday night – an attack designed to coincide with a visit by Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state – proved to be the last straw.
American and British forces responded by striking more than 70 targets in 16 locations aimed at destroying the bases, arms dumps and harbors the Houthis use to mount their attacks.
The operation has predictably prompted dire warnings from the Houthis and their allies of dire repercussions. Houthi officials say there will be a “severe retaliation”, while Iran, which has helped to train the Houthi militants responsible for carrying out the Red Sea attacks, claimed the action would fuel “insecurity and instability” in the region.
But while the Houthis and other Iranian militias in the region will no doubt seek to respond to the military action initiated by the US and UK, it is unlikely to lead to a broader escalation for the reason that Iran, which ultimately controls their operations, has no desire to engage in a direct confrontation with the West.
It is worth remembering that the proxy war Iran has been waging against the West and its allies long predates the Oct 7 attacks. US forces based in the Middle East, for example, have been regularly involved in clashes against Iranian-backed militias in places like Syria and Iraq.
In one of the more notable incidents in June 2021, US warplanes directed airstrikes against Iranian-backed militia groups close to the Syria-Iraq border after they attacked American storage facilities.
Significantly, the American action did not initiate a major escalation in hostilities between Washington and Tehran, not least because the Iranians, while happy to let their proxies do their dirty work, have no intention of provoking a direct war with the West.
Iran will adopt a similar attitude following the Yemen attacks, which would explain Tehran’s rather muted response to the American and British action, with officials complaining about the attacks being “a clear violation of Yemen’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” without making any mention of a military response.
And that will remain the case so long as Tehran does not attempt to open another front, such as targeting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow entrance to the Gulf which is a major access point for global energy supplies.
Iranian forces earlier this week seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, a move denounced as being “unlawful” by Washington. Any further attempts by Tehran to disrupt shipping in the Strait could easily result in Iran becoming involved in a direct military confrontation with the US, one it has so far tried so hard to avoid. – The Telegraph
