Shifting Monsoon Pattern: Is Arid Pakistan Turning Wet?
By Riaz Haq
CA
Semi-arid Pakistan, with its farmlands predominantly irrigated by the world's largest contiguous canal system, has experienced an increasing amount of annual rains and floods for several years. Even the desert regions of the country, like the vast Thar desert straddling India-Pakistan border, have recently been turning green. Now a study has found that "the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10%–50% during 1901–2015 and is expected to increase by 50%–200%" by the end of the current century.
The authors of this study published by Advanced Earth and Space Science conclude as follows: "While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological disasters is a must, harnessing the augmented rainfall would lead to a substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people in the region". |
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Already, the satellite images shared by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) show that greenery in Pakistan has been growing at double digit rates over the last few decades. All of this rapid greening of the country is the result of intensive agriculture in Punjab and Sindh provinces.
Recent economic data from Pakistan lends credence to the findings of the latest study that the region will see "substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people". Pakistan's agriculture sector grew 6.3% in 2023-24, far outpacing the overall economy that grew just 2.38%, according to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2023-24 . Pakistan’s agricultural exports reached a record $8 billion in FY 2023-24. This is good news for about 40% of the country's population working in the agriculture sector. By contrast, India's agriculture growth slowed to 1.2% in recent quarters. Studies have shown that strong growth in agriculture helps reduce poverty in developing nations like India and Pakistan.
The study highlights shifting monsoon patterns bringing more rainfall in northwestern and Pakistan which is explained as follows: "The warming of the western Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea strengthens winds that cross the equator, which increases evaporation and the amount of moisture carried from the ocean to the land. This leads to increased monsoon rainfall." "On the other hand, the oceanic rain belt between the equator and 10°S shows weakening, with a decrease in mean rainfall from the eastern IO (Indian Ocean) extending up to the maritime continent", it adds:
A major downside of the increased rainfall from shifting monsoon patterns is frequent flooding in both rural and urban Pakistan. The country experienced the worst floods in its history in 1922. Over a thousand Pakistanis died. About 33 million people in two southern provinces became homeless. Sindh was inundated with 784% of normal rainfall. Balochistan saw 522% of average rainfall. Both provinces suffered their worst ever heatwave prior to this unprecedented deluge. Nearly a million livestock were lost, over two million acres of farmland went underwater and 90% of the crops in Sindh and Balochistan were damaged. It was a massive humanitarian crisis.
Such extreme weather events like the floods of 2022 are likely to recur and cause widespread devastation unless measures are taken to build back better. Part of the new infrastructure needed to deal with it includes better rainwater harvesting and improved drainage systems. This is what the authors of the study refer to when they say that "harnessing the augmented rainfall would lead to a substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people in the region".
