Book & Author
Professor Dr Iqbal Ali: Undeclared Water War on Pakistan— Tactical and Strategic Defense Measures
By Dr Ahmed S. Khan
“A river is more than an amenity, it is a treasure. It offers a necessity of life that must be rationed among those who have power over it.”
Justice Oliver W. Holmes (1841-1935)
Justice of the US Supreme Court, 1902-1932
“Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel prizes—one for peace and one for science.”
— President John F. Kennedy (1917 – 1963)
In Mr Modi’s zeal for anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan hatred — all clocks have been stopped, and history has been held as hostage (put under house arrest) — in his attempt to rewrite the history of 1,000 years of Muslim rule in India. Mr Modi known as Chaiwallah, aka the butcher of Gujarat, is going to celebrate the 100 th anniversary of the founding of the RSS with a big bang — what no other Indian government during the past six decades could do — placing the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance and generating war optics to win elections! Pakistan has warned that any attempts by India to block water will be an act of war!
The BJP/RSS crowd after coming to power has systematically blamed Indian Prime Minister Nehru for all the ills India is facing including the signing of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). India has systematically violated IWT by breaching its core principles:
1. April 2025 Unilateral suspension of IWT: The IWT was designed as a perpetual agreement which can be modified or terminated only through mutual consent. Modi’s action is a violation of international legal norms and treaty’s stipulations, and a challenge to the arbitration power of the World Bank.
2. Continuously building hydroelectric projects on western rivers: India has constructed several run-of-the river hydroelectric projects like the Kishanganga Dam in Kashmir and Ratle on Chenab — both on rivers which are part of western river systems. The World Bank did not try to mediate the issue via a viable solution according to stipulations of IWT. Experts have argued that such infrastructures can potentially reduce water availability downstream, especially during key irrigation periods, and are seen as undermining the IWT obligations.
3. Managing and Sudden Alteration in Water Flow: India has been releasing water abruptly causing floods resulting in human and collateral damage to crops and property in Pakistan. The IWT requires advanced sharing of hydrological data and coordinated water management.
Modi's government is facing several political challenges: the BJP has faced setbacks in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, and West Bengal, losing seats due to issues like unemployment, inflation, concerns over communal rhetoric, and failure of his “New Kashmir” narrative — via revocation of Article 370 — leading to regional tensions with Pakistan.
Mr Modi has mastered the skill of staging false flag operations and then blaming Pakistan to win political advantage at home. Whenever Mr Modi faces domestic political challenges — on demand — he creates a false flag operation, and then attacks Pakistan to win elections! The same old script, like February 2019, was repeated on April 22, 2025, when gunmen attacked tourists in Pahalgam killing 26 people and injuring dozens in the absence of security forces. It was a mega security failure. For an hour and a half no medical or security help arrived. Local Muslim populations from neighboring villages demonstrated remarkable humanity to help the victims. They came and helped the victims in providing them with first aid and moving them to hospital. Transporting around two thousand tourists on their mules and horses to lower altitudes, opening their houses to help the injured and frightened tourists.
The aftermath of the Pahalgam attack revealed a disturbing rise in anti-Muslim violence and hate campaigns across India. Reports indicate that several Muslims were injured or killed in targeted attacks by violent mobs. For instance, in Uttar Pradesh, a Muslim restaurant worker was shot and killed, while his cousin was seriously injured. In Delhi, two shopkeepers were killed. In Karnataka, a Muslim employee was beaten by colleagues and left critically injured. There were also incidents of Kashmiri students being attacked in various states, including Chandigarh and Himachal Pradesh.
The Modi government has faced criticism for its inability to provide concrete evidence linking Pakistan to the recent killings of tourists in Kashmir. Like Imran Khan’s offer of 2019, Pakistan has offered India to conduct a joint investigation of the incident, but India has refused to do so. Mr Modi is ready to attack Pakistan with full force to gain political advantage at home. But the million-dollar question is: how far Mr Modi will go in hurting his friends “Shariffs & Generals Inc.” who have kept Imran Khan, the peoples’ most popular leader and the winner of February 8, 2024, elections, in jail on fictitious charges to extend their undemocratic and illegal rule. One statement by Imran Khan can neutralize Mr Modi’s war hysteria, but the egoistic Generals continue to exhibit their abuse of power via abrogation of the constitution, by keeping Imran Khan in solitary confinement.
Water is the lifeblood of billions of people all over the globe. Water use has been increasing at more than twice the rate of population growth in the last century. The UN experts forecast that by 2025, 1.8 billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity, and two-thirds of the world population could face severe stress conditions on their water supplies.
Looking into the future, many experts value water to be more precious than oil, silver, and gold, and believe that in the near future the liquid wars will focus on water and not oil. It is just a matter of time before countries flex their muscles to secure water for their growing populations. The US security establishment has already warned about potential conflicts over water. In a 2012 ICA Global Water Security report , the US director of national intelligence warned that overuse of water – as in India and other countries – was a source of conflict that could potentially compromise US national security.
In South Asia, Pakistan and India are facing severe water shortages. Many experts have warned about the potential of a regional water war. Nina Brooks, in her article Imminent Water Crisis in India , observes: “India could become the stage for major international water wars because so many rivers that originate in India supply water to other countries. India has the power to avoid this dark future if people take action immediately.”
In Undeclared Water War on Pakistan: Tactical and Strategic Defense Measures, Professor Dr Iqbal Ali (d. 2018) presents a captivating account of an undeclared water war imposed on Pakistan by India. Dr Ali describes a historical perspective and the social, economic, and ecological challenges that must be overcome to prevent the looming water crisis. In his view, Pakistan has already reached the level of Ethiopia and other desert nations, such as Libya and Algeria, and the water shortage is forcing it to become a water-scarce nation.
Professor Dr Iqbal Ali had unique credentials to pen this manuscript. This book reflects his more than fifty years of experience and expertise in the field of Water Resource Management and Engineering. He graduated in Civil Engineering from the University of Jabalpur (1958) and acquired his master’s degree in Dams and Waterpower Engineering from IIT, Kharagpur (1960), and completed his PhD from the University of Leeds, UK (1969). He was a member of ASCE and International Association of Environmental Impact Assessment, and Life Fellow of Institution of Engineers, Pakistan, and Pakistan Engineering Congress. He had served on the faculty of University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore (1962-1975), King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia (1975 – 1987), NED University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi, (1988-1997 and 2008-2012). He was a member of the Technical Committee on Water Resources (2003-2005), appointed by Government of Pakistan to investigate the possibility of building the Kalabagh Dam (KBD) and related issues. He authored numerous research articles, and many textbooks which are being used in universities around the globe.
Dr Ali has skillfully covered a wide span of time, from pre-partition to the present, by critically examining past and present water issues and assessing future scenarios related to an undeclared water war that has been imposed on Pakistan. The author has masterfully juxtaposed technical details with historical facts in straightforward language so that readers with non-technical backgrounds can grasp the complexities of the issue.
The book consists of eight chapters and seven appendices which contain a plethora of information; the appendix on India’s Water Crisis is a chapter in itself. Other appendices present information on topics like global energy challenges, Indus Waters Treaty, judgment on Baglihar, China’s Three Gorges Dam, Report on Kalabagh Dam feasibility, and India’s water conflict with Bangladesh.
In Chapter 1, The Prelude, Dr Ali sets the stage for his thesis of an undeclaredwater war imposed on Pakistan by exploring the historical perspective about Wars for Resources. The author observes: “Pakistan’s economy depends on agriculture which depends mainly on surface water. Destroying, reducing or wasting the precious irrigation supplies will cause irreparable loss to the economy, and this is one surefire way to overwhelm the nation. Unknown to many, Pakistan has silently been facing the water war ever since it came into existence in 1947. Just like military warfare, the water war is being imposed by external aggression and internal subversion. In the pages that follow a complete description and analysis of the water war imposed on Pakistan is discussed. Then, short- and long-term remedial measures are proposed.”
In Chapter 2, Agriculture, Water, and Pakistan, the author discusses the importance of agriculture for Pakistan. He states: “Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy and survival in the face of international economic sanctions. What is oil and gas for Saudi Arabia and Iran, agriculture is for Pakistan. When sanctions were imposed after the nuclear tests in 1998, Pakistan could bear them because our farmers produced enough wheat and food for the country. Irrigation-based agriculture in the Indus Valley was developed as early as 8000 BC. The Mohenjo-Daro civilization, dependent on river-fed agriculture, dates back to 4500 BC. At present, agriculture contributes 22 percent of GDP and employs about 43 percent of the labor force. Pakistan ranks eighth in the world in farm output.”
In Chapter 3, Water War: 1947- Onwards, Dr Ali explores the root cause of the water conflict. He observes that the undeclared water war, in fact began with the Radcliffe Award, and giving Madhopur and Ferozepur barrages to India. The author observes that this was an unnatural and biased demarcation that can be considered the first attack on the waterfront. The result became visible within six months (January 1948), when the water was switched off in the Dipalpur Canal and Upper Bari Doab Canal (UBDC). Within four months of independence, thousands of acres of wheat crop dried up with no water in the canals. The author, reflecting on the background of the award, states: “Why did Radcliffe commit the crime? Historians blame his boss Mountbatten, the then Viceroy of India. Radcliffe submitted his report…When Gurdaspur and Ferozepur were announced to be in India and not Pakistan, it went against what was originally recommended by his Radcliffe Commission. It is said that during these five days, Mountbatten was persuading Maharaja of Kashmir to announce accession to India. When he did not succeed, he included Gurdaspur, Pathankot and Ferozepur in India. It is also believed that Gurdaspur and Pathankot were included to provide the only land link to Kashmir. The other road link that existed was in Pakistan. What about Ferozepur? Did he want Muslim Kashmir to go to India or was he planting an issue to keep India and Pakistan fighting forever? Was it the policy of divide and rule at play? There are many theories but the one which is nearest to the truth and proven to be a fact of history is that Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, the great Indian leader, was a Kashmiri Brahmin and Pandit. It was impossible for him to see his Kashmir accede to Pakistan. He possessed a charming and persuasive personality, and being educated in England’s famous public school system, was well versed in English manners. As is well known Lady Mountbatten fell in love with Nehru, and he exploited her love for his personal and political gains. Through her, he influenced Mountbatten to change the original Radcliffe Award and exclude Gurdaspur and Pathankot from Pakistan to provide a road link between India and Kashmir.”
In Chapter 4, Middle Stage Attack (1952-60), Dr Ali expounds on the background that led to the Indus Waters Treaty, and the fact that India was waging the water war with a strategy and a long-range plan, while this issue did not get the attention it deserved in Pakistan. He observes that Western powers, through the World Bank, favored the Indian demands while the political instability (1952-58) in Pakistan had a disastrous effect on the lower Riparian of Sutlej and Ravi. Pakistan's weak-nerved military rulers were clearly outsmarted by the Indians with their clever and mature negotiation tactics, he believes. On the negotiation table, it was a war of nerves that Pakistan was losing. India prevailed on Pakistan to agree to totally surrender Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi, taking away from Pakistan 24 million acre-feet (MAF) per year. The loss amounted to losing almost 3 Tarbela or 4 Kalabagh reservoirs.
Expounding on the Indian strategy and advancements in the education sector, the author observes: “India continued on its track, laid down by the first prime minister, and by 2012 the country had completed 4,847 major water resource projects and thousands of minor dams. Similarly, the dream of engineering education that was seen by the then education minister Maulana Abul Kalam Azad became a reality with three levels of engineering institutes, i.e., state-level, regional colleges and Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), amongst other high-level specialized institutes in the public and private sector established all over India. In 1960 when I did my Master’s degree in Dams Engineering from IIT, Kharagpur there were four and today there are thirteen IITs spread all over India. The IIT's have gained the respect of the academic world and their output dominates the Western market, particularly the US. It is this engineering education revolution that the world’s topmost IT corporations, like Cisco Systems, Oracle, Microsoft, etc., are run by Indians and they own no less than 700 companies in Silicon Valley, California, USA. Today it is an Indian who has succeeded Bill Gates to run Microsoft. Whatever little progress was achieved by the Higher Education Commission (HEC) in Pakistan from 2000 through 2008 has been undone by the wadera rulers of Pakistan. No major dam has been built since 1975.”
In Chapter 5, Last Stage: 1990-Onwards, Dr Ali states that the second stage (1952–60) ended in a victory for India since they achieved more than they had sought, once Pakistan happily signed the Indus Waters Treaty in September 1960. Under the treaty India in addition to three eastern rivers was given 4.45 MAF/year from three western rivers and was further allowed to continue to draw water for their existing projects on western rivers. Pakistan was denied drawing waters from the eastern rivers and asked to build replacement works costing billions of dollars, a great financial burden which also caused environmental degradation and change of morphology. The author further observes that it can be said this treaty was more unfortunate than the one signed in Dhaka in 1971.
The author also draws attention to the gravity of the situation created by India’s construction of multiple dams, as pointed out by John Briscoe, the World Bank irrigation adviser. After the judgment of the neutral expert allowing India spillway gates, John Briscoe wrote: “If Baglihar was the only dam being constructed on Chenab and Jhelum, it would be a limited problem. But following Baglihar is a veritable caravan of Indian projects — Kishenganga, Sawalkot, Pukuldal, Bursar, Dulhuste, Gypsa, and on and on. The cumulative live storage will be large enough giving India unquestionable capacity to have a major impact on the timing of flows into Pakistan.”
In Chapter 6, The Internal Subversion, the author presents an account of how anti-Pakistan forces used internal subversion to create a powerful anti-Kalabagh lobby to promote mistrust among all stakeholders. The author observes that the postponement of Kalabagh has pushed Pakistan toward becoming a water-scarce nation. The rising population and consequent rise in demand for food and water, and depletion of storage due to silting in the three existing reservoirs, has brought pressure on groundwater supplies. The anti-Kalabagh lobby claims it is based on technical and not political grounds, which Dr Ali disputes. He advises that Pakistan should let no foreign agency succeed in creating an internal quarrel that can forever seal the fate of building storage structures for water, which is now just getting wasted by flowing into the sea, while the thirsty lands of Sindh, Punjab, Baluchistan, and KPK are crying for water. The author has compared the construction features of Kalabagh with Bhasha in the following table.
Factor |
Kalabagh |
Bhasha |
Location |
Punjab |
Gilgit Baltistan |
Type |
Earthfill |
Roller Compacted Concrete |
Height |
259 ft |
892 ft |
Storage |
7.8 MAF |
7.3 MAF |
Power |
3600 MW |
4500 MW |
Likely Cost |
$7.2 billion |
12.6 billion |
Time Required for Completion |
4-5 years |
10-12 years |
Time to Complete Access to Damsite |
Zero (existing) |
5-6 years |
Total time |
3-4 years |
15-18 years |
Storage per foot height of dam |
300,000ac. ft. |
8184 ac.ft. |
Cost per foot of water stored |
$923 |
$1726 |
Expertise Required |
Local construction companies |
Highly Specialized Construction Companies of International Repute |
Financial |
i) Possible to build with national resources
ii) Return period of benefits is 4-5 years |
i) Not possible without World Bank, ADB or other donors
ii) Return period of benefits 15-18 years |
No objection Certificate from India |
not required |
Required by World Bank, ADB, etc. |
Transmission Lines |
Short Lines |
Long Lines |
Flood Control in Lower Punjab and Sindh |
Can control |
Cannot control
|
Dr Ali recommends that in all provinces of Pakistan, especially in Sindh and Punjab, all stakeholders need to be educated about the water scarcity and potential solutions for dealing with it, so that instead of fighting amongst themselves on the distribution of water they should unite to deal with India’s undeclared water war. Instead of agitating against KBD, which should be constructed as soon as possible to end the ongoing energy crisis, the agitation should address the threat posed to Pakistan through the Baglihar Dam and scores of dams built in India on the rivers flowing into Pakistan. A new strategy and “a national water policy” need to be developed to deal with the undeclared water war on Pakistan.
In Chapter 7, Pakistan’s Water Scenarios and Challenges, Dr Ali analyzes both the external onslaught and the internal subversion aiming to prevent the construction of major water resources in Pakistan. Addressing the leadership, Dr Ali observes: “The wadera rulers should trust their water resources experts, and cooperate with them to manage this problem, rather than use the water issues for political games… The idea of building motorways is great and wonderful, but water, energy and hydropower resources are the most wanted dynamic economic engines required for the progress of a nation, and thus, must be placed on the top of the priority list of national mega projects.” The author has also presented “Carry over and Storage Capacity” of Dams in various countries in the following table.
|
|
Carry-over Capacity |
Storage Capacity
m³/person |
Egypt (Aswan) |
1000 days (Nile) |
— |
U.S.A |
900 days |
6150 |
Australia |
600 days |
5000 |
South Africa |
500 days |
— |
India |
220 days |
323 (will be 400 after completion of dams under construction |
Pakistan |
30 days |
73 |
Every few years, floods in Pakistan cause massive destruction of crops and property. Dr Ali suggests that the floods of the Indus system must be captured by building a series of dams at every feasible site. Dr Ali observes that the price of uncaptured flood water wasted to the sea is about 13.2 billion dollars, which is equivalent to 10 Tarbela Reservoirs. If stored and routed through KBD, this water would have generated 30,476 MW of much needed electricity, the engine for economic growth. To deal with water shortages in urban centers like Karachi, Dr Ali proposes the construction of desalination plants, working on alternate energy sources like solar and wind power.
In Chapter 8, Tactical and Strategic Defense Measures, Dr Ali argues vehemently for the construction of the KBD as it offers an immediate solution to stop Pakistan's constant retreat in the water war. Dr Ali poses a question: “If the federal government can engage the militants in dialogue, why not have a dialogue with the anti-KBD bobby?” He observes that the KBD can be started right away and should be taken up without delay, for the following reasons:
- It can be built by Pakistani engineering construction companies under Pakistani supervision.
Dr Ali observes that Pakistan used to be a “W ater Effluent Nation, then became a Water Deficient Nation, then fell to a Water-Scarce Nation, and, finally, will become a Rain Dependent (Barani) Nation.” Unless it takes steps, that is… Without new reservoirs the wonderful irrigation system of Pakistan will operate like an automobile engine without a flywheel, leading to jerk after jerk. Dr Ali warns that if Pakistani leadership does not rise to the occasion and take a bold decision on building a new reservoir at Kalabagh, followed by other dams, the water war on Pakistan will place the country on the last and final step of the water scarcity ladder, below which there are no more steps.
Unique in its depth, breath and detailed analysis, Undeclared Water War on Pakistan: Tactical and Strategic Defense Measures , stimulates, inspires, and builds awareness of the importance of water shortages, and presents viable solutions for dealing with the challenges. The manuscript includes numerous tables, statistics, charts, and photographs to supplement the chapter contents. The book concludes with a unifying message of River Indus. It is a must read for anyone seeking technical or non-technical understanding of the water issues of the present and future. The book is a valuable reference for water experts, policy makers, academics, and the public at large.
(Dr Ahmed S. Khan is a Fulbright Specialist Scholar)
Title: Undeclared Water War on Pakistan: Tactical and Strategic Defense Measures
Author: Professor Dr Iqbal Ali
ISBN: 978-969-848-6174
Publisher: Allied Book Company, Naqi Market, 75 The Mall, Lahore, Pakistan
Phone: 042-363-06456, Fax: 042-363-60662, Email: allied@lhr.comsats.net.pk
