Photo The Guardian
Deadlocked Vote in Israel
By Nayyer Ali MD
Israeli voters went to the ballot on October 27 in the shadow of the Gaza and Iran wars. Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been Israeli Prime Minister almost continuously since 2009, faced the electorate but has failed to clearly win another term. However, the opposition failed to gain a clear majority. The balance is made up of two Israeli-Arab parties, Joint List and Raam. What happens next is unclear.
Israel is governed by a parliamentary system with a total of 120 seats in the Knesset, and 61 seats needed to form a government. Because of the parliamentary system with proportional representation, and the highly fractured nature of Israeli society, there are about 10 parties that win seats in the Knesset. The government is then formed usually by the largest party, assembling a coalition of at least 61 seats.
Going into this election, Netanyahu has been blamed by many for the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023 that led to the Gaza War, while he is praised by others for his willingness to strike Iran and talk the US to go to war with Iran on the grounds that it was necessary to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon. Netanyahu is head of the right-wing Likud party, while his main challenger in this election was Gadi Eisenkot, who heads Yashar. Both sides have several smaller parties that would form a coalition government.
In the election, the final official results will not be known for eight days. At this point we have exit polling from major Israeli media. What it appears to show is that Netanyahu’s Likud party is going to be the largest, but with only 25 seats, while Eisenkot will have 22. Adding both sides likely coalition partners creates an impasse, as Netanyahu can only assemble 50 seats, while Eisenkot can put together 52 or perhaps 53.
The surprising outcome of this election is the performance of the two Israeli-Arab parties. These parties represent the Palestinians who remained in Israel after the 1948 war and are Israeli citizens. They make up 20% of Israel’s population, but have never played a role in Israeli governing coalitions. There was a small exception from June 2021 to December 2022 when Raam added a few seats to allow an anti-Netanyahu coalition to hold power, but that government fell apart and Netanyahu came back into office. In this election it looks like Joint List will win 10 seats and Raam will win 7 or 8 seats. Combined this 18 seats is a record for Israeli-Arabs.
The big question now is how will a stable coalition be formed? There are basically three options. First, the Netanyahu bloc takes power with Eisenkot providing his 22 seats in exchange for senior cabinet positions. But this outcome would mean that Netanyahu again is the ultimate power in Israel, and the anti-Netanyahu faction is dead set against that. They blame him for years of supporting Hamas indirectly by facilitating billions of dollars in aid flow from Qatar, and for allowing Israel to be taken by surprise in 2023.
The second option is for Eisenkot to become Prime Minister with the support of Netanyahu and his 25 seats. This would mean that Netanyahu would finally be out of the top job, but he would play a major role in the cabinet. However, seeing Netanyahu loyally serve as an underling in an Eisenkot government is hard to imagine.
The third option would be a political earthquake in Israel. It would require Eisenkot to take his bloc into power with the support of the two Arab parties. That would give him a strong coalition of 70 Knesset seats. But this would violate an unwritten rule of Israeli politics, namely, that the government should be based entirely on Jewish parties, and Israeli-Arabs, while they can sit in the Knesset, cannot be part of the government. Before the vote one of the major coalition partners of Eisenkot stated clearly that they would not be willing to form a coalition with the Arab parties. Would they change their mind now that the voters have spoken?
Israel does not have traditional liberal versus conservative politics. The left in Israel was basically annihilated as a result of the second Intifada in the 2000’s. What exists now is pro- and anti-Netanyahu politics. The math problem is that neither faction can form a government given that Israeli Arabs have taken a record number of Knesset seats.
The prime challenge that awaits the next Israeli government is how to finally make peace with the Palestinians. The alliance with America, which up till 2023 appeared to be unshakeable, is now tottering. Netanyahu began to poison the well during the Obama administration as he more closely linked Israel with the Republican party in the US. The war in Gaza has created deep fissures in the Democratic party now, with a strong streak of criticism of Israeli excesses. There are many voices calling for an end to military aid and even weapons sales unless Israel resolves its dispute with the Palestinians. Even Jewish Democrats have offered a much more skeptical take on Netanyahu and his rule. If Democrats seize control of Congress and then take the White House in 2028, Israel will face a serious challenge to its occupation of the Palestinians.
For now, it looks like there is no path forward to forming a government based on the current election results. Under Israeli law, if no government can be formed, then the country must hold another election within 60 days. That is the most likely outcome of this vote. The next election may take place under the context of a defeated and weakened Trump, and an ascendent Democratic Party, assuming the Democrats pull off seizure of both the House and Senate on November 3. Will that cause the Israeli electorate to change their minds and vote either of the two major blocs into power? Stay tuned.
