Carnegie Paper on 2007-2008
Elections
A
political crisis is Pakistan is looming. Widening civil
unrest in the Balochistan province, pressure to perform
in the US-led war on terror, and increasing unease about
President Musharraf’s future plans raise questions
about next year’s presidential and parliamentary elections.
The year 2007 will be crucial for the future of democracy
in Pakistan.
In a new Carnegie Paper, Islam, Militarism, and the 2007–2008
Elections in Pakistan, Visiting Scholar Frédéric
Grare argues that the army, not Islamic forces, will be
the deciding factor in this election. The 2002 elections
showed a nominal rise in power for Islamic forces but, in
reality, little progress was made for democracy. To read
this Carnegie Paper, go to www.CarnegieEndowment.org/SouthAsia.
Assuming elections are on schedule, presidential elections
as well as general and provincial elections will happen
in the fall. The Pakistani regime—and many commentators
in the West— will portray the elections as a contest
between Islamists, represented by the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal
(MMA), and the enlightened moderation of General Pervez
Musharraf and the Pakistani Army. However, in reality, the
only question is how the army’s tactics to manipulate
the 2007-2008 elections will differ from those used in the
past, and the role Islamic parties will play in the process.
Will the next elections restore faith in electoral politics
and finally bring democracy to Pakistan?
Grare’s paper seeks to identify not only the ideological
evolution but also the tactical moves and eventual errors
during the Musharraf period that resulted in the present
domination of the MMA by the army and other civilian challenges
to the military regime. It continues to look into different
electoral scenarios and concludes by pointing out not only
the true illness in Pakistan but also the strategic importance
of restoring democracy in Pakistan.
Direct link to pdf: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/CEIP_CP_70_fnl2.pdf
Frédéric Grare is a visiting scholar in the
South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment. His work focuses
on the tension between stability and democratization in
Pakistan. He has written extensively on security issues,
Islamist movements, and sectarian conflict in Pakistan and
Afghanistan. Grare is coeditor of India, China, Russia:
Intricacies of an Asian Triangle (India Research Press,
2005).
Press Contact: Emily
Hancock, 202/939-2265, ehancock@CarnegieEndowment.org
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
