Washington DC’s MEI & INDUS Co-Host Virtual Discussion
Pakistan Pins Hopes on Afghan Peace Talks
By Elaine Pasquini
As the highly anticipated intra-Afghan peace talks in Doha, Qatar, dragged on, Washington DC’s Middle East Institute (MEI) and INDUS, a virtual think tank promoting educational and social reform in Pakistan, co- hosted a November 12 virtual discussion on Pakistan’s concerns on the outcome of peace talks and the future of Afghanistan.
Noting there are many views about Pakistan’s involvement in Afghanistan, Marvin G. Weinbaum, MEI director of Pakistan and Afghanistan Studies, pointed out “no country has more of a stake in Afghanistan’s future than Pakistan, and Afghanistan’s future hinges more on its relationship with Pakistan than with any other country.”
In discussing which form of government in Afghanistan would best serve Pakistan at the present time, Jawed Ludin, former deputy foreign minister of Afghanistan, posited that “From Pakistan’s point of view any government that is subservient in terms of its relationship with India and the regional strategic equation would be a desirable government.” In addition, “It is inconceivable that the restoration of the Islamic emirate would be seen as ideal by any sensible Pakistani statesman.”
Asad Durrani, former chief of Pakistan’s military and inter-services intelligence, asserted that Pakistan is not looking for a government that is friendly, but wants “a stable, consensus government that serves the interests of Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
On the question of what happens in the region if current peace talks fail, Madiha Afzal of the Brookings Institution stated that the US presence might be prolonged a bit “especially with a Biden administration which will not pull out recklessly, but will insist on a responsible withdrawal.” If the peace process fails and the US does not increase its presence, Afzal noted that “many people will say that Afghanistan will either go into a state of civil war or, given the Taliban’s military might, you will see the Taliban ascending to a certain position.” A civil war, she said, would not be good for Pakistan as “the spillovers from that are problematic.”
Pakistan wants a stable government in Afghanistan “because Pakistan realizes that its ascendance has to be borne out of economic ascendance rather than a geostrategic posture, so it needs a good economic relationship with Kabul,” she said.
“If the peace process fails …I think the prospect of a totally disastrous catastrophic regional proxy war – an all-out war – is really conceivable,” opined Ludin. “For that very reason, I cannot even bring myself to admit that the peace process can fail.”
Afrasiab Khattak, a former Pakistan senator and a Pashtun political and human rights activist and analyst, pointed out that what is being negotiated in Doha is not strictly an Afghan issue.
“It’s been going on for decades," he explained. "It’s always been a regional conflict…with international and global dimensions. To that extent, the onus is on us Afghans to come up with some sort of dispensation that stabilizes Afghanistan.”
(The author is Senior Correspondent of Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, and recipient of the CAIR Fairness & Integrity in Media Award.
http://www.wrmea.com/ , www.elainepasquini.com )
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