The Future of Regional Engagement with Afghanistan and the Taliban
By Elaine Pasquini
Washington, DC: Amid the fast-moving events unfolding in Afghanistan, the country’s regional neighbors are cautiously observing the situation before formulating a relationship with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
On September 7, panelists on a webinar hosted by the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft offered their thoughts on how countries in the region would navigate relations with the new government in Afghanistan.
“Recognition of a Taliban-led government, along with development aid or investment, is seen as the key levers on how to shape Taliban behavior in some way,” said Ibraheem Bahiss, a consultant for the International Crisis Group. “Those are the pressures and last few remaining levers that many of these countries, including the US, have, and I do not think they will be willing to give up that leverage very easily.”
Providing humanitarian aid, as long as the Taliban guarantees safe passage for humanitarian organizations, is all that the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States, are willing to commit to at this point, he opined.
But recognition, Bahiss stated, would be linked to the Taliban upholding human and women’s rights, which has not yet happened. “I don’t think any of the international countries are in a rush to recognize the Taliban’s government,” he said.
While preventing terrorism and instability is important to countries in the region, Bahiss pointed out that the Taliban is a “quasi-military movement” and has been at war for 27 years. “I think it has never been in a state of complete peace where it must focus on the mundane stuff of economic stability and service delivery,” he said. “I think the Taliban would like nothing more than to have ongoing war in the country…because they are in their element in that kind of environment.”
Noting that Afghanistan is on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe, Pakistani journalist and author Zahid Hussain described the current dire situation of the Afghans.
According to reports, Hussain said, more than 250,000 people have been internally displaced in the last six months. In the past year, the percentage of Afghans living below the poverty line has increased from 60 percent to 70 percent.
“We have not seen a large flow of refugees at the moment who are fleeing from the conflict, but, given the economic situation, there is the fear there will be more refugees coming, which is one of the main concerns of Pakistan,” he stated.
Responding to a question from moderator Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute on the reaction of the Pakistani public to Afghanistan’s new government, Hussain said that some Islamists in Pakistan feel the Taliban takeover is a “victory for jihad and that it will give a huge impetus to the Islamic movement in Pakistan…and could contribute to extremism in Pakistan.”
As to Pakistan’s relationship with Russia, Hussain commented that Pakistan is a member of the “troika-plus which was initiated by Russia,” and that the two countries remain in regular contact with each other and probably at this point “there is some kind of regional consensus about how to deal with the Taliban government.”
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, offered the Chinese perspective on the Taliban-run government of Afghanistan. “The Chinese are calling this the victory of the people’s war and that the Taliban was able to win because it had enjoyed support from the grassroots level,” she said. “We’re seeing Chinese public opinion turning extremely positive about the Taliban, [saying] that the Taliban are students of Chairman Mao. I would say concern about the Taliban’s religious nature and potential religious-related policies are being intentionally ignored in this narrative.”
Moving forward, China is concerned about what the Taliban’s relationship with Islamist groups will be and is watching how the international community treats the new government, Sun added.
Omar Samad, former Afghan ambassador to Canada and France, pointed out that international countries who were sending financial aid to the government led by former President Ashraf Ghani – 80 percent of the budget was from foreign aid – “are somewhat out of the picture right now and trying to figure out how and under what conditions to re-engage and on what level.”
The Taliban have developed relations with Iran, Russia, China, Pakistan and the neighboring Central Asian countries for a long time. “I think the Taliban are very careful and want to make sure that they give the right messaging and narratives that will not disturb their relationships that they have fostered over the past years,” Samad stated.
Turkey and Qatar are playing a technically critical role in working to reactivate the Kabul airport, he said, while the UAE wants to get involved on the humanitarian side.
“Iran is a continuing shift of narratives,” Samad opined. “They were watching to see what happens and…they gave a bit of a nudge to the resistance in Panjshir.” Stability and protecting the rights of the minority Shi’a Hazaris in Afghanistan – about 10 percent of the population – are of concern to Iran, as is keeping an economic footprint there. “I think that is one of the reasons it is keeping its options open with the Taliban,” he added.
Answering a question on the future of Afghanistan’s narcotics production and trade, Samad noted: “The Taliban have announced a ban on cultivation and trade of heroin, but…this is a livelihood issue and…there is a population that will starve and be bankrupt” if forced to stop the illegal drug trade.
Samad questioned whether the Taliban could turn their narcotics production into a legal one, considering the demand by the pharmaceutical industry for opioid drugs.
Lieven pointed out, however, “the keys are to have a sufficiently honest…state because otherwise the whole thing collapses in corruption and illicit trade. This would be a fundamental test of the Taliban government in the future.”
(Elaine Pasquini is a freelance journalist. Her reports appear in the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs and Nuze.Ink.)
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