China, India, Pakistan: Standing on the Brink of Crisis
By Elaine Pasquini
Photos by Phil Pasquini
Washington: The United States Institute of Peace hosted a May 17 in-person panel discussion launching the institute’s report, “Enhancing Strategic Stability in Southern Asia,” which examines US policy options for resolving or mediating disputes, enhancing regional stability, and managing potential major crises.
“South Asia has the unfortunate distinction of being the world’s only region where three nuclear-armed states share a contested and frequently violent border,” said Ambassador George E. Moose, chair of USIP’s Board of Directors. “China’s presence…is also reshaping the strategic balance in the region as is the deepening US partnership with India.”
In early March, an errant missile launched by India struck Pakistani territory. While it was fortunate there were no casualties and the incident did not escalate, the incident “highlighted once again the potential for unexpected crises in the region,” the ambassador pointed out.
Daniel Markey, study group co-chair and senior advisor at USIP’s South Asia Program, noted an evolution in the nature of South Asian countries’ relationships with each other and with the United States, which led the group to be quite concerned about nuclear use in the region.
The report identifies core and underlying disputes relevant to nuclear use and suggests realistic policies the United States should undertake, Markey explained.
“We looked at the limited capabilities of the United States to bring peace to this region, but we still suggested opportunities to seize narrow limited near-term chances to promote peace and dialogue between India and Pakistan and India and China,” he said.
Lamenting the diminishing influence of the US, Markey stated: “Our leverage with India has not improved a great deal; our leverage with Pakistan may have deteriorated; and this makes us worried.”
Lynn Rusten , vice president of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, addressed issues of nuclear risks and nuclear competition.
“China has a relatively small arsenal right now compared to the United States and Russia,” she noted, “but it is projected to grow significantly up to 700 warheads within the next five years and possibly as many as 1,000 by the end of the decade.”
The priority right now for the US is building a broader strategic relationship and defense cooperation with India which may make us “less able to act as a neutral mediator in any potential conflict between India and China or India and Pakistan,” Rusten said.
“ The bottom line is that it is not in the national security interests of the United States for any additional countries to be acquiring nuclear weapons or for the countries that currently have them to be expanding their nuclear arsenals,” Rusten said. “We should be encouraging… countries to be moving away from…their nuclear arsenals.”
Vikram Singh, co-chair of the report and senior advisor at USIP’s Asia’s Program, focused on India-Pakistan relations, noting recently the two neighbors have taken an “escalate to de-escalate stance” if they have a crisis.
According to Singh, the most likely means for a crisis to erupt between India and Pakistan is a terrorist attack following the US pull out of Afghanistan last summer. In addition, there has been a growing Hindi nationalist movement in India, causing fear and concern in India’s Muslim communities and neighboring countries.
The rise of the Taliban has increased the sanctuary and freedom of action for groups like the TTP, ISIS and al-Qaeda, “so you see a growing risk profile which is a dangerous brew,” Singh noted. “Strong nationalist governments…will feel the need to respond forcefully to any terrorist attack and then you enter a potential escalation cycle. I would feel more comfortable about that if there were known established communication mechanisms to manage that kind of escalation in India and Pakistan. That kind of open dialogue is potentially lifesaving and could help prevent a crisis sparked by a terrorist incident from getting out of hand.”
Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, noted that from China’s perspective, since China and India both have the no-first-use principle, there is not going to be a nuclear interaction. The vast gap of national power between India and China also plays a role, she said. “Because the Chinese use overwhelming conventional forces to achieve their goals, there is no need for the nuclear potential.”
Since India’s nuclear arsenal is smaller than China’s, Yun said, the Chinese do not believe India would risk nuclear confrontation. In addition, China’s nuclear arsenal is almost exclusively reserved for deterrence against the United States, she stated.
Andrew Scobell, co-author and distinguished fellow at USIP’s China Program, discussed how the strengthened competition between China and the US made managing the relationship more difficult.
The United States’ stressful relationship with China right now complicates the situation and puts a “global geopolitical overlay on an already fragile condition of strategic stability in the regional context,” Scobell said. “Although Islamabad and New Delhi most certainly don’t think of themselves as client states or proxy states of Beijing and Washington, respectively, China and the US are increasingly seeing Southern Asia developments through the prism of what Beijing calls bloc politics and this means that Beijing increasingly sees New Delhi as a quasi-ally of Washington and Washington increasingly sees Islamabad as a de facto ally of Beijing.”
“So just as China is not a neutral player in this, the perception of multiple parties is that neither is the United States,” he added.
Scobell acknowledged that the US is distracted from the South Asia region due to Russia’s war on Ukraine, “but I think South Asia is ground zero for [global] stability...so you cannot ignore it,” he said. “You must keep an eye on it even while you are putting out fires elsewhere in the world.”
(Elaine Pasquini is a freelance journalist. Her reports appear in the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs and Nuze.Ink.)
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