USIP Panel Addresses Pakistan’s Historic Floods
By Elaine Pasquini

Washington: On September 8, the United States Institute of Peace hosted a Twitter Space discussion on the causes and impact of the record-breaking floods that have devasted Pakistan over the summer.

Arifa Noor	Asfandyar Mir
Jumaina Siddiqui	Tamanna Salikuddin

In April and May of this year, Pakistan experienced its hottest months in 61 years, Tamanna Salikuddin, director of USIP’s South Asia programs and moderator of the event, told the virtual audience. “It was hit by what UN Secretary-General António Guterres called ‘a monsoon season on steroids.’ ”

Pakistan has long been considered one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the world, she said, and it was “ill-prepared for this year’s monsoon season.”

As the humanitarian crisis continues, the losses – of human lives, homes, infrastructure, livestock and crops – are devastating. The floods have already killed over 1,500 people and the economic cost to over 33 million residents will be astronomical.

Pointing out that 80 percent of the damage to homes occurred in Sindh Province and that even before the floods this region had lower levels of development, USIP senior expert Asfandyar Mir raised concern about the ability of the government in the province, led by the Pakistan People’s Party over the last decade, to deal with the crisis. “I think this is a big challenge for the People’s Party,” he opined. “Large parts of Sindh are still underwater and there is nowhere for it to go.”

There are also questions about the party’s capacity to handle reconstruction. “Many people are doubtful given its track record over the last decade that the People’s Party could respond in a meaningful way,” Mir added.

Mir attributed the smaller than usual amount of international financial support Pakistan has received compared to assistance received for prior natural disasters in the country to “donor fatigue.” But, he said, “It also speaks to Pakistan’s political situation…and since the US has left Afghanistan, I think there is less appetite for the region.”

In addition, the Chinese have their own frustrations with the status of the Belt and Road projects in the country and the state of Pakistan’s foreign policy, he added, “but hopefully that will change because the scale of this disaster is so consequential.”

The civil-military issues in the country are a distraction from the flood response and much of the media is focused on that instead of covering the scale of the disaster the country is experiencing, Mir said.

Jumaina Siddiqui, USIP’s senior program officer for South Asia, noted the significant role climate change has played in the scale of this flooding, along with the unprecedented monsoon rains this year. Climate activists will become more active over the next few months, she predicted, and “Pakistan will be used as an example.”

But Siddiqui also faulted “weak governance and insufficient preparedness” for contributing to the crisis. “I think this is a failure in part of the disaster management agencies, the science side of it…and lessons were not learned from the flood in 2010 on where infrastructure should be built, where houses should be built, so that is why you see the levels of devastation across the country,” she said.

The flood disaster coordination center that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has set up should not be “politicized,” Siddiqui continued. “This is where we need technocrats. This is a job for experts not government officials or retired military officials. They need technical expertise in climate change in urban planning and disaster management.”

For South Asia, this is an opportunity “to move beyond the challenges that countries in the region have been facing,” she said. “A regional response…of sharing ideas and practices could be the way forward to revive regional cooperation on this issue.”

With the steep decline of the rupee and 43 percent food inflation, among other economic problems, nine to twelve million people are estimated to fall below the poverty line, said Arifa Noor, a journalist and anchor at Dawn TV.

While heavy rains were expected due to the extreme heat, the deluge of rain that occurred was still unexpected. “We’re talking about more than 400 percent increase in rainfall in Baluchistan and 500 percent more than the usual in Sindh in July alone,” Noor related. “Normally, the rain cycle comes once or twice, now we’re talking about six cycles, according to weather experts, in this year alone.”

“But the financial aspect of it is going to be the biggest question mark,” she said. “When it comes to Pakistan and national disasters, it does not get a lot of international attention. What we are looking at is the government has to think about the fiscal space and obviously this will take time because we are still at the rescue stage so humanitarian organizations take precedence.”

Presently, waterborne illnesses are a major issue, especially for women, Noor said. Diarrhea, malaria and skin infections have increased between 70 to 97 percent.

Women in flood-affected areas lack access to hygiene supplies and are reporting physical protection concerns. “When women are moved out of homes into camps or temporary displacement centers hygiene and health is affected because you are sharing close spaces with strangers,” Noor pointed out. “There are also particular concerns for pregnant women who lack fresh water and access to health care.”

“But the little bit of hope,” she observed, “is that the humanitarian organizations are particularly aware of women’s health and issues.”

“The cause is global; climate change is a reality,” Noor said. “We have more questions than we have answers to everything at the moment. I think the global community has to not just find the answers but to frame the questions to begin with.”   

(Elaine Pasquini is a freelance journalist. Her reports appear in the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs and Nuze.Ink.)